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SMTC

Semtech Corporation Common Stock

Technology · ·

$134.78

$13.53 (+11.2%)

Market Cap

$12.55B

Day Range

$117.50 - $137.15

52-Week Range

$46.02 - $177.35

Beta

Next Earnings

02.09.2026

SMTC is a stock from the Technology sectorSoftware, hardware, chip, and computing-services companies — revenue tied to the pace of innovation and upgrade cycles.

🏢 Similar Stocks in the Same Sector

+137.9% (1Y)

Investor Score
50/ 100C-
🟡 Moderate

This score and all analysis on this page are for informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. Read the full disclaimer

📈51C-Technical
💰35FFundamental
🚀79B+Growth
💎38FValuation
📰56CNews
🏦42DQuality
⚠️48D+Risk

Weighted: Technical 25% · Fundamental 20% · Growth 15% · Valuation 15% · News 10% · Quality 10% · Risk 5%

🔍 Cross-Check

Overall Score

🟡 Mixed

Technical Trend

🟡 Mixed

Insiders

🔴 Bearish

✅ Why is the score relatively high?

  • 🟢 Earnings per share (EPS) growth: 79.6%
  • 🟢 Free cash flow growth: 241.9%
  • 🟢 Net income growth: 75.1%
  • 🟢 Current ratio: 2.37
  • 🟢 Price is above the 200-day average

⚠️ What's concerning?

  • 🔴 Estimated fair value: $34.16 vs. price $134.78 (-74.7%)
  • 🔴 Net margin: -3.8% (negative)
  • 🔴 Operating margin is eroding over time
  • 🔴 ATR: 9.2% of price
  • 🔴 Return on equity (ROE): -7.3% (negative)

🚦 Quality & Risk Checks

🔴 Operating margin stability🟡 Conservative leverage🔴 Daily volatility (ATR)🟡 Leverage risk🟢 Liquidity risk

📈 Technical Analysis

Based on the last 251 trading days, calculated from real price data. Click an indicator for details and a chart.

🟡 Indicators are mixed — no clear bias (3 bullish · 4 bearish · 3 neutral)

Conclusions

  • 🔴Price vs. SMA 50Price is below the 50-day average
  • 🟢Price vs. SMA 200Price is above the 200-day average
  • 🟢MACDMACD histogram is positive — rising momentum
  • 🔴RSIRSI 45.2 — weak/negative bias
  • 🟡Stochastic%K 49.2 — neutral range
  • 🟡ADX (trend strength)ADX 20.5 — weak trend/choppy
  • 🟢Relative strength vs. S&P 500+2.6% over the last 3 months relative to the index
  • 🔴ROC (rate of change)ROC 12 days: -3.7%
  • 🔴Parabolic SARPrice is below the SAR point — downtrend
  • 🟡CMF (money flow)CMF 20 days: -0.01

Wyckoff Method Analysis

A market-structure read based purely on real price and volume data — not full classic Wyckoff schematic identification (Phase A-E), but a quantitative analysis of what can reliably be computed: trading ranges, "effort vs. result", volume within the range, and Spring/Upthrust detection.

Markdown

The stock is in a clear downtrend with no defined trading range in the period examined.

High confidence

Evidence Behind This Read

  • 🔴Falling price trendA -26.3% change over the last 50 days, with no defined trading range.

The Wyckoff Method, developed by Richard Wyckoff in the early 20th century, reads the balance of supply and demand through price and volume, based on the premise that large investors ("smart money") quietly accumulate shares before rallies and quietly distribute them before declines. The read here is based solely on real price and volume data — full, precise identification of classic Wyckoff patterns (such as Phases A-E) requires human chart-reading experience and judgment, so this is an approximate algorithmic read, not a substitute for professional analysis. This should not be considered investment advice.

🎯 Trade Planning (M.A.E.E Framework)

Based on a mechanical trading method: market structure → value zone → ATR-based exit point. Not investment advice — a calculation tool only.

1️⃣ Market Structure

🟢 Uptrend

The price is above the 200-day average — per the market-structure method, this environment mainly favors looking for buying (Long) opportunities.

2️⃣ Value Zone

🟡 Price far from value zone

The price is currently far from the 50-day average — the method recommends waiting for a "pullback" before entering, rather than chasing prices.

3️⃣ Suggested Exit Point (ATR-based)

Method formula: Stop-loss = support minusone ATR margin — this way the stop adapts to the stock's actual volatility, rather than an arbitrary number.

Entry

$121.25

Stop-Loss

$91.96

Risk per Share

$29.29

Direction

Long

Profit Targets by Risk/Reward Ratio (R)

1:2 R

$179.83

1:3 R

$209.11

1:5 R

$267.69

💰 Position Size Calculator

A core principle of the method: never risk a fixed dollar amount — risk a fixed percentage of equity, and let the position size vary according to the risk per share.

Suggested Position Size

3 sh.

💰 Financial Health

Profitability

Gross Margin

51.6%

Operating Margin

3.1%

Net Margin

-3.8%

EBITDA Margin

3.1%

Efficiency

ROE

-7.3%

ROA

-2.9%

ROIC

EPS

-$0.46

Balance Sheet

Cash

$195.18M

Total Debt

$491.23M

Current Ratio

2.37

Debt/Equity

0.89

Conclusions

  • 🟢Gross marginGross margin: 51.6% — strong
  • 🔴Operating marginOperating margin: 3.1% — weak
  • 🔴Net marginNet margin: -3.8% (negative)
  • 🔴Return on equity (ROE)Return on equity (ROE): -7.3% (negative)
  • 🔴Return on assets (ROA)Return on assets (ROA): -2.9% — weak
  • 🟢Current ratio (liquidity)Current ratio: 2.37
  • 🟡Debt-to-equityDebt/equity: 0.89
  • 🔴Interest coverageInterest coverage: 0.8x

🚀 Growth

Revenue

Earnings per Share (EPS)

Net Income

Free Cash Flow (FCF)

Conclusions

  • 🟢Revenue growth (last year)Revenue growth (last year): 15.5%
  • 🟢Earnings per share (EPS) growthEarnings per share (EPS) growth: 79.6%
  • 🟢Free cash flow growthFree cash flow growth: 241.9%
  • 🟢Net income growthNet income growth: 75.1%

💎 Fair Value (Valuation)

Current Price

$134.78

Estimated Fair Value (DCF)

$34.16

Gap

-74.7%

🔴 Appears expensive relative to estimated value

Show all model (DCF) assumptions →

Year 1 Growth Rate

11.7%

Discount Rate (WACC)

9.0%

Terminal Growth Rate

2.5%

Projection Years

5

YearGrowth RateProjected FCFPresent Value
111.7%$191.36M$175.56M
29.4%$209.29M$176.16M
37.1%$224.11M$173.05M
44.8%$234.84M$166.37M
52.5%$240.71M$156.44M

Base FCF (last actual year)

$171.38M

Terminal Value

$3.80B

Present Value of Terminal Value

$2.47B

Enterprise Value

$3.31B

Net Debt

$296.06M

Equity Value

$3.02B

*The DCF model is an estimate based on assumptions — not a guaranteed forecast. You can change the assumptions to examine different scenarios.

Book Value per Share

$6.22

Tangible Book Value per Share (Tangible NAV)

$0.59

Conclusions

  • 🔴DCF Fair ValueEstimated fair value: $34.16 vs. price $134.78 (-74.7%)
  • 🟡Tangible Net Asset Value (NAV)NAV per share: $0.59
  • 🟡P/EP/E: -263.6

🕴️ Insider Trading

Real transactions by officers and insiders, as reported to the SEC on Form 4 — 0 purchases and 17 sales out of the last 25 filings.

NameTransaction TypeDateSharesChangePrice
Walsh Paul V JrOpen Market Sale22.7.202627,600-500$133.07
Silberstein AsafOpen Market Sale14.7.202693,862-3,000$145.04
HOU HONG QOpen Market Sale10.7.202664,799-2,000$133.00
Silberstein AsafOpen Market Sale8.7.2026104,925-437$124.19
Silberstein AsafOpen Market Sale8.7.2026102,477-2,448$125.18
Silberstein AsafOpen Market Sale8.7.2026102,204-273$126.60
Silberstein AsafOpen Market Sale8.7.2026101,616-588$127.61
Silberstein AsafOpen Market Sale8.7.2026100,216-1,400$128.70
Silberstein AsafOpen Market Sale8.7.202696,862-3,354$129.94
Green Jason ElliotOpen Market Sale7.7.20269,743-1,132$129.32
Green Jason ElliotOpen Market Sale7.7.20268,611-1,132$130.48
HOU HONG QExercise of Derivative Securities1.7.202670,099+6,484
HOU HONG QTax Withholding in Shares1.7.202666,799-3,300$161.85
HOU HONG QExercise of Derivative Securities1.7.202625,933-6,484
Silberstein AsafGift1.7.20260-38,866
Silberstein AsafGift1.7.2026105,362+38,866
Lin MarkExercise of Derivative Securities1.7.202637,427+3,164
Lin MarkTax Withholding in Shares1.7.202635,866-1,561$161.85
Lin MarkOpen Market Sale1.7.202634,896-970$150.41
Lin MarkExercise of Derivative Securities1.7.20263,165-3,164
Fischer Gregory MichaelOpen Market Sale30.6.20265,678-1,500$156.24
HOU HONG QOpen Market Sale29.6.202665,901-7,319$152.43
HOU HONG QOpen Market Sale29.6.202663,615-2,286$152.99
Walsh Paul V JrOpen Market Sale24.6.202628,100-500$164.99
WILSON JOHN MICHAELOpen Market Sale22.6.202680,876-5,500$170.00

📉 Short Interest

Official FINRA data — the number of shares open in short positions, plus daily short-sale activity.

Monthly Trend — Open Short Interest

+17.1%

6,517,355 shares short as of 2026-07-15 · vs. 5,564,789 on 2026-06-30

Official biweekly report (FINRA Rule 4560) — no real higher-frequency data exists for this metric.

Weekly Trend — Daily Short-Sale Activity

+34.4%

54.0% of trading volume this week was short selling, vs. 40.2% the prior week

Based on daily short-sale volume (Reg SHO) — a different metric from the open short interest above: this is daily trading volume, not an open position, so it updates weekly rather than biweekly.

📰 News & Sentiment

Sentiment based on basic keywords (not AI) — 4 positive, 1 neutral, 3 negative out of the last 8 articles.