DFDV
DeFi Development Corp. Common StockFinance · ·
$2.72
▼ $0.08 (-2.9%)
Market Cap
$81.92M
Day Range
$2.67 - $2.77
52-Week Range
$2.44 - $21.80
Beta
—
Next Earnings
12.08.2026
🏢 Similar Stocks in the Same Sector
-79.9% (1Y)
This score and all analysis on this page are for informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. Read the full disclaimer
Weighted: Technical 25% · Fundamental 20% · Growth 15% · Valuation 15% · News 10% · Quality 10% · Risk 5%
🔍 Cross-Check
Overall Score
🔴 Bearish
Technical Trend
🔴 Bearish
✅ Why is the score relatively high?
- 🟢 Revenue growth (last year): 442.2%
- 🟢 Current ratio: 1.51
- 🟢 MACD histogram is positive — rising momentum
- 🟢 Gross margin: 97.8% — strong
- 🟢 NAV per share: $5.18
⚠️ What's concerning?
- 🔴 Estimated fair value: -$31.43 vs. price $2.72 (-1255.6%)
- 🔴 Operating margin: -319.7% (negative)
- 🔴 Net margin: -648.1% (negative)
- 🔴 Operating margin is eroding over time
- 🔴 ATR: 8.6% of price
🚦 Quality & Risk Checks
📰 News Trend
Based on real financial news (Finnhub)Everyone's writing about DeFi Development Corp. Common Stock. News trend score: 74. Reason: 6 of the last 11 articles are positive, versus 2 negative.
News trend analysis is based on article sentiment only, and is not investment advice or financial counsel. Read the full disclaimer
📈 Technical Analysis
Based on the last 251 trading days, calculated from real price data. Click an indicator for details and a chart.
🔴 Most indicators support a downtrend (1 bullish · 6 bearish · 3 neutral)
Conclusions
- 🔴Price vs. SMA 50 — Price is below the 50-day average
- 🔴Price vs. SMA 200 — Price is below the 200-day average
- 🟢MACD — MACD histogram is positive — rising momentum
- 🔴RSI — RSI 47.0 — weak/negative bias
- 🟡Stochastic — %K 48.6 — neutral range
- 🟡ADX (trend strength) — ADX 8.9 — weak trend/choppy
- 🔴Relative strength vs. S&P 500 — -39.6% over the last 3 months relative to the index
- 🔴ROC (rate of change) — ROC 12 days: -5.6%
- 🔴Parabolic SAR — Price is below the SAR point — downtrend
- 🟡CMF (money flow) — CMF 20 days: -0.05
Wyckoff Method Analysis
A market-structure read based purely on real price and volume data — not full classic Wyckoff schematic identification (Phase A-E), but a quantitative analysis of what can reliably be computed: trading ranges, "effort vs. result", volume within the range, and Spring/Upthrust detection.
The stock is in a clear downtrend with no defined trading range in the period examined.
High confidence
Evidence Behind This Read
- 🔴Falling price trend — A -28.9% change over the last 50 days, with no defined trading range.
The Wyckoff Method, developed by Richard Wyckoff in the early 20th century, reads the balance of supply and demand through price and volume, based on the premise that large investors ("smart money") quietly accumulate shares before rallies and quietly distribute them before declines. The read here is based solely on real price and volume data — full, precise identification of classic Wyckoff patterns (such as Phases A-E) requires human chart-reading experience and judgment, so this is an approximate algorithmic read, not a substitute for professional analysis. This should not be considered investment advice.
🎯 Trade Planning (M.A.E.E Framework)
Based on a mechanical trading method: market structure → value zone → ATR-based exit point. Not investment advice — a calculation tool only.
1️⃣ Market Structure
🔴 Downtrend
The price is below the 200-day average — an environment that mainly favors looking for selling (Short) opportunities, not buying.
2️⃣ Value Zone
🟡 Price far from value zone
The price is currently far from the 50-day average — the method recommends waiting for a "pullback" before entering, rather than chasing prices.
3️⃣ Suggested Exit Point (ATR-based)
Method formula: Stop-loss = resistance plusone ATR margin — this way the stop adapts to the stock's actual volatility, rather than an arbitrary number.
Entry
$2.80
Stop-Loss
$4.50
Risk per Share
$1.70
Direction
Short
Profit Targets by Risk/Reward Ratio (R)
1:2 R
-$0.60
1:3 R
-$2.30
1:5 R
-$5.71
💰 Position Size Calculator
A core principle of the method: never risk a fixed dollar amount — risk a fixed percentage of equity, and let the position size vary according to the risk per share.
Suggested Position Size
58 sh.
💰 Financial Health
Profitability
Gross Margin
97.8%
Operating Margin
-319.7%
Net Margin
-648.1%
EBITDA Margin
-310.5%
Efficiency
ROE
-74.3%
ROA
-24.0%
ROIC
—
EPS
-$4.00
Balance Sheet
Cash
$5.92M
Total Debt
$127.47M
Current Ratio
1.51
Debt/Equity
1.28
Conclusions
- 🟢Gross margin — Gross margin: 97.8% — strong
- 🔴Operating margin — Operating margin: -319.7% (negative)
- 🔴Net margin — Net margin: -648.1% (negative)
- 🔴Return on equity (ROE) — Return on equity (ROE): -74.3% (negative)
- 🔴Return on assets (ROA) — Return on assets (ROA): -24.0% — weak
- 🟢Current ratio (liquidity) — Current ratio: 1.51
- 🟡Debt-to-equity — Debt/equity: 1.28
🚀 Growth
Revenue
Earnings per Share (EPS)
Net Income
Free Cash Flow (FCF)
Conclusions
- 🟢Revenue growth (last year) — Revenue growth (last year): 442.2%
- 🔴Earnings per share (EPS) growth — Earnings per share (EPS) growth: -1328.6%
- 🔴Free cash flow growth — Free cash flow growth: -636.1%
- 🔴Net income growth — Net income growth: -2605.8%
💎 Fair Value (Valuation)
Current Price
$2.72
Estimated Fair Value (DCF)
-$31.43
Gap
-1255.6%
🔴 Appears expensive relative to estimated value
Show all model (DCF) assumptions →
Year 1 Growth Rate
25.0%
Discount Rate (WACC)
9.0%
Terminal Growth Rate
2.5%
Projection Years
5
| Year | Growth Rate | Projected FCF | Present Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 25.0% | $-22.46M | $-20.61M |
| 2 | 19.4% | $-26.81M | $-22.57M |
| 3 | 13.8% | $-30.50M | $-23.55M |
| 4 | 8.1% | $-32.98M | $-23.36M |
| 5 | 2.5% | $-33.80M | $-21.97M |
Base FCF (last actual year)
$-17.97M
Terminal Value
$-533.04M
Present Value of Terminal Value
$-346.44M
Enterprise Value
$-458.50M
Net Debt
$121.55M
Equity Value
$-580.04M
*The DCF model is an estimate based on assumptions — not a guaranteed forecast. You can change the assumptions to examine different scenarios.
Book Value per Share
$5.38
Tangible Book Value per Share (Tangible NAV)
$5.18
Conclusions
- 🔴DCF Fair Value — Estimated fair value: -$31.43 vs. price $2.72 (-1255.6%)
- 🟢Tangible Net Asset Value (NAV) — NAV per share: $5.18
- 🟡P/E — P/E: -0.7
🕴️ Insider Trading
Real transactions by officers and insiders, as reported to the SEC on Form 4 — 0 purchases and 0 sales out of the last 25 filings.
| Name | Transaction Type | Date | Shares | Change | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Han Fei | Tax Withholding in Shares | 17.7.2026 | 360,435 | -2,803 | $2.82 |
| Han Fei | Tax Withholding in Shares | 17.6.2026 | 363,238 | -2,803 | $3.09 |
| Han Fei | Tax Withholding in Shares | 17.5.2026 | 366,041 | -2,802 | $4.78 |
| Han Fei | Tax Withholding in Shares | 17.4.2026 | 368,843 | -2,862 | $4.78 |
| Townsend Adam R. | Grant/Award from Employer | 4.4.2026 | 28,170 | +28,170 | — |
| JANOVER BLAKE | Exercise of Derivative Securities | 1.4.2026 | 78,281 | +70,000 | — |
| JANOVER BLAKE | Tax Withholding in Shares | 1.4.2026 | 61,236 | -17,045 | $3.45 |
| JANOVER BLAKE | Exercise of Derivative Securities | 1.4.2026 | 0 | -70,000 | — |
| Caragol William J | Grant/Award from Employer | 31.3.2026 | 16,795 | +16,795 | — |
| JANOVER BLAKE | Grant/Award from Employer | 31.3.2026 | 6,562 | +6,562 | — |
| Tai Zachary Aris | Grant/Award from Employer | 31.3.2026 | 656 | +656 | — |
| Han Fei | Grant/Award from Employer | 31.3.2026 | 13,568 | +13,568 | — |
| Kang Daniel | Grant/Award from Employer | 31.3.2026 | 11,655 | +11,655 | — |
| Onorati Joseph Mario | Grant/Award from Employer | 31.3.2026 | 22,639 | +22,639 | — |
| Perfumo Thomas J. | Grant/Award from Employer | 31.3.2026 | 700 | +700 | — |
| White Parker | Grant/Award from Employer | 31.3.2026 | 14,393 | +14,393 | — |
| Han Fei | Tax Withholding in Shares | 17.3.2026 | 371,705 | -3,217 | $5.11 |
| Caragol William J | Grant/Award from Employer | 17.2.2026 | 54,500 | +2,000 | — |
| Tai Zachary Aris | Grant/Award from Employer | 17.2.2026 | 14,500 | +5,000 | — |
| Onorati Joseph Mario | Grant/Award from Employer | 17.2.2026 | 828,236 | +828,236 | — |
| Han Fei | Grant/Award from Employer | 17.2.2026 | 374,922 | +374,922 | — |
| White Parker | Grant/Award from Employer | 17.2.2026 | 524,410 | +524,410 | — |
| Kang Daniel | Grant/Award from Employer | 17.2.2026 | 265,256 | +265,256 | — |
| Perfumo Thomas J. | Grant/Award from Employer | 17.2.2026 | 14,000 | +7,000 | — |
| Stern Hadley R. | Grant/Award from Employer | 27.1.2026 | 16,500 | +16,500 | — |
📉 Short Interest
Official FINRA data — the number of shares open in short positions, plus daily short-sale activity.
Monthly Trend — Open Short Interest
6,303,343 shares short as of 2026-07-15 · vs. 6,227,152 on 2026-06-30
Official biweekly report (FINRA Rule 4560) — no real higher-frequency data exists for this metric.
Weekly Trend — Daily Short-Sale Activity
51.2% of trading volume this week was short selling, vs. 50.3% the prior week
Based on daily short-sale volume (Reg SHO) — a different metric from the open short interest above: this is daily trading volume, not an open position, so it updates weekly rather than biweekly.
📰 News & Sentiment
Sentiment based on basic keywords (not AI) — 6 positive, 3 neutral, 2 negative out of the last 11 articles.
Benzinga · 22.7.2026
MarketBeat · 10.7.2026
GlobeNewswire · 7.7.2026
Proactive · 29.6.2026
IPO-Edge.com · 22.5.2026
GuruFocus.com · 22.5.2026
Exec Edge · 20.5.2026
MarketBeat · 16.5.2026
GlobeNewswire · 15.5.2026
MarketBeat · 14.5.2026
CryptoProwl · 4.5.2026