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BLBD

Blue Bird Corporation Common Stock

Consumer Discretionary · ·

$66.01

$10.92 (-14.2%)

Market Cap

$2.09B

Day Range

$65.96 - $73.47

52-Week Range

$46.14 - $83.39

Beta

Next Earnings

23.11.2026

BLBD is a stock from the Consumer Cyclical sectorRetail, automotive, and leisure — demand rises and falls with economic sentiment and consumers' disposable income.

🏢 Similar Stocks in the Same Sector

+26.2% (1Y)

Investor Score
56/ 100C
🟡 Moderate

This score and all analysis on this page are for informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. Read the full disclaimer

📈23FTechnical
💰77B+Fundamental
🚀68B-Growth
💎50C-Valuation
📰86ANews
🏦63C+Quality
⚠️54C-Risk

Weighted: Technical 25% · Fundamental 20% · Growth 15% · Valuation 15% · News 10% · Quality 10% · Risk 5%

🔍 Cross-Check

Overall Score

🟡 Mixed

Technical Trend

🔴 Bearish

Insiders

🔴 Bearish

✅ Why is the score relatively high?

  • 🟢 Earnings per share (EPS) growth: 22.8%
  • 🟢 Net income growth: 21.0%
  • 🟢 Operating margin is stable or improving over time
  • 🟢 Return on equity (ROE): 50.0% — strong
  • 🟢 Debt/equity: 0.35

⚠️ What's concerning?

  • 🔴 ATR: 5.4% of price
  • 🔴 Price is below the 50-day average
  • 🔴 MACD histogram is negative — falling momentum
  • 🔴 -3.2% over the last 3 months relative to the index
  • 🔴 Price is below the SAR point — downtrend

🚦 Quality & Risk Checks

🟢 Operating margin stability🟢 Conservative leverage🔴 Daily volatility (ATR)🟢 Leverage risk🟢 Liquidity risk

📰 News Trend

Based on real financial news (Finnhub)
🟢 Positive

Everyone's writing about Blue Bird Corporation Common Stock. News trend score: 86. Reason: 11 of the last 20 articles are positive, versus 5 negative.

News trend analysis is based on article sentiment only, and is not investment advice or financial counsel. Read the full disclaimer

📈 Technical Analysis

Based on the last 251 trading days, calculated from real price data. Click an indicator for details and a chart.

🔴 Most indicators support a downtrend (1 bullish · 9 bearish · 1 neutral)

Conclusions

  • 🔴Price vs. SMA 50Price is below the 50-day average
  • 🟢Price vs. SMA 200Price is above the 200-day average
  • 🔴MACDMACD histogram is negative — falling momentum
  • 🔴RSIRSI 32.0 — weak/negative bias
  • 🔴Stochastic%K 0.3 — oversold
  • 🟡ADX (trend strength)ADX 20.4 — weak trend/choppy
  • 🔴Relative strength vs. S&P 500-3.2% over the last 3 months relative to the index
  • 🔴Bollinger BandsPrice is in the lower third of the Bollinger Bands (-29%B) — weakness (chance of a recovery)
  • 🔴ROC (rate of change)ROC 12 days: -18.8%
  • 🔴Parabolic SARPrice is below the SAR point — downtrend
  • 🔴CMF (money flow)CMF 20 days: -0.19

Wyckoff Method Analysis

A market-structure read based purely on real price and volume data — not full classic Wyckoff schematic identification (Phase A-E), but a quantitative analysis of what can reliably be computed: trading ranges, "effort vs. result", volume within the range, and Spring/Upthrust detection.

Markdown

The stock is in a clear downtrend with no defined trading range in the period examined.

Medium confidence

Evidence Behind This Read

  • 🔴Falling price trendA -6.9% change over the last 50 days, with no defined trading range.

The Wyckoff Method, developed by Richard Wyckoff in the early 20th century, reads the balance of supply and demand through price and volume, based on the premise that large investors ("smart money") quietly accumulate shares before rallies and quietly distribute them before declines. The read here is based solely on real price and volume data — full, precise identification of classic Wyckoff patterns (such as Phases A-E) requires human chart-reading experience and judgment, so this is an approximate algorithmic read, not a substitute for professional analysis. This should not be considered investment advice.

🎯 Trade Planning (M.A.E.E Framework)

Based on a mechanical trading method: market structure → value zone → ATR-based exit point. Not investment advice — a calculation tool only.

1️⃣ Market Structure

🟢 Uptrend

The price is above the 200-day average — per the market-structure method, this environment mainly favors looking for buying (Long) opportunities.

2️⃣ Value Zone

🟡 Price far from value zone

The price is currently far from the 50-day average — the method recommends waiting for a "pullback" before entering, rather than chasing prices.

3️⃣ Suggested Exit Point (ATR-based)

Method formula: Stop-loss = support minusone ATR margin — this way the stop adapts to the stock's actual volatility, rather than an arbitrary number.

Entry

$66.01

Stop-Loss

$62.39

Risk per Share

$3.62

Direction

Long

Profit Targets by Risk/Reward Ratio (R)

1:2 R

$73.24

1:3 R

$76.86

1:5 R

$84.09

💰 Position Size Calculator

A core principle of the method: never risk a fixed dollar amount — risk a fixed percentage of equity, and let the position size vary according to the risk per share.

Suggested Position Size

27 sh.

💰 Financial Health

Profitability

Gross Margin

20.5%

Operating Margin

11.3%

Net Margin

8.6%

EBITDA Margin

12.3%

Efficiency

ROE

50.0%

ROA

20.4%

ROIC

EPS

$4.01

Balance Sheet

Cash

$229.31M

Total Debt

$90.32M

Current Ratio

1.74

Debt/Equity

0.35

Conclusions

  • 🟡Gross marginGross margin: 20.5% — reasonable
  • 🟡Operating marginOperating margin: 11.3% — reasonable
  • 🟡Net marginNet margin: 8.6% — reasonable
  • 🟢Return on equity (ROE)Return on equity (ROE): 50.0% — strong
  • 🟢Return on assets (ROA)Return on assets (ROA): 20.4% — strong
  • 🟢Current ratio (liquidity)Current ratio: 1.74
  • 🟢Debt-to-equityDebt/equity: 0.35
  • 🟢Interest coverageInterest coverage: 23.2x

🚀 Growth

Revenue

Earnings per Share (EPS)

Net Income

Free Cash Flow (FCF)

אין נתונים היסטוריים זמינים.

Conclusions

  • 🟡Revenue growth (last year)Revenue growth (last year): 9.9%
  • 🟢Earnings per share (EPS) growthEarnings per share (EPS) growth: 22.8%
  • 🟢Net income growthNet income growth: 21.0%

💎 Fair Value (Valuation)

Not enough cash-flow data to calculate a DCF model for this stock.

Book Value per Share

$7.77

Tangible Book Value per Share (Tangible NAV)

$5.93

Conclusions

  • 🟡Tangible Net Asset Value (NAV)NAV per share: $5.93
  • 🟡P/EP/E: 17.0

🕴️ Insider Trading

Real transactions by officers and insiders, as reported to the SEC on Form 4 — 1 purchases and 6 sales out of the last 25 filings.

NameTransaction TypeDateSharesChangePrice
Thau Daniel MarkOpen Market Purchase19.5.20268,696+300$65.09
Fream Julie AGrant/Award from Employer1.4.20269,705+2,297
Blaufuss MarkGrant/Award from Employer1.4.202610,334+2,297
Penn Kevin S.Grant/Award from Employer1.4.20266,396+2,297
Grimm Douglas J.Grant/Award from Employer1.4.202628,764+2,297
Hightower Edward T.Grant/Award from Employer1.4.20266,396+2,297
Newman Simon JGrant/Award from Employer1.4.202610,334+2,297
Thau Daniel MarkGrant/Award from Employer1.4.20268,396+2,297
Girardin SteveGrant/Award from Employer1.4.20261+1
Girardin SteveGrant/Award from Employer1.4.20262,297+2,297
Girardin SteveGrant/Award from Employer1.4.20262,702,180+2,702,180
Sanfrey Jeffrey ScottExercise of Derivative Securities4.3.202644,203+5,192$12.35
Sanfrey Jeffrey ScottOpen Market Sale4.3.202639,011-5,192$58.54
Sanfrey Jeffrey ScottExercise of Derivative Securities4.3.20260-5,192
Radulescu RazvanOpen Market Sale19.2.202642,255-3,925$60.98
Radulescu RazvanExercise of Derivative Securities17.12.202549,683+3,503$12.35
Radulescu RazvanExercise of Derivative Securities17.12.202553,186+3,503$12.35
Radulescu RazvanOpen Market Sale17.12.202546,180-7,006$51.58
Radulescu RazvanExercise of Derivative Securities17.12.20250-3,503
Horlock PhilOpen Market Sale12.12.2025233,726-7,040$50.50
Horlock PhilOpen Market Sale12.12.2025225,385-8,341$50.35
Radulescu RazvanTax Withholding in Shares12.12.202546,180-2,907$50.36
Scartz TedTax Withholding in Shares12.12.202559,910-626$50.36
Sanfrey Jeffrey ScottTax Withholding in Shares12.12.202539,011-549$50.36
Radulescu RazvanOpen Market Sale10.12.202549,087-7,984$50.39

📉 Short Interest

Official FINRA data — the number of shares open in short positions, plus daily short-sale activity.

Monthly Trend — Open Short Interest

+9.6%

3,956,173 shares short as of 2026-07-15 · vs. 3,608,558 on 2026-06-30

Official biweekly report (FINRA Rule 4560) — no real higher-frequency data exists for this metric.

Weekly Trend — Daily Short-Sale Activity

-1.5%

68.7% of trading volume this week was short selling, vs. 69.8% the prior week

Based on daily short-sale volume (Reg SHO) — a different metric from the open short interest above: this is daily trading volume, not an open position, so it updates weekly rather than biweekly.

📰 News & Sentiment

Sentiment based on basic keywords (not AI) — 11 positive, 4 neutral, 5 negative out of the last 20 articles.