15.7%
Annual return
S&P 500 15.1%
-15.1%
Max drawdown
S&P 500 -22.4%
$23,075
$10,000 became
S&P 500 $22,459
4/6
Years beating the index
11.7%
Annual return
S&P 500 6.2%
-64.7%
Max drawdown
S&P 500 -53.6%
$89,429
$10,000 became
S&P 500 $32,670
15/20
Years beating the index
7.5%
2001-2012
S&P 500 1.9%
17.9%
2013-2020
S&P 500 13.1%
| Year | 🌊 Portfolio | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2001 | -1.7%✓ | -15.7% |
| 2002 | -12.0%✓ | -20.5% |
| 2003 | +26.8%✓ | +23.6% |
| 2004 | +46.1%✓ | +9.0% |
| 2005 | +31.0%✓ | +6.3% |
| 2006 | +15.0%✓ | +13.1% |
| 2007 | +27.2%✓ | +2.9% |
| 2008 | -53.8% | -35.0% |
| 2009 | +35.9%✓ | +23.4% |
| 2010 | +14.7%✓ | +14.3% |
| 2011 | +0.6% | +1.0% |
| 2012 | +7.4% | +16.5% |
| 2013 | +42.3%✓ | +26.4% |
| 2014 | +9.4% | +13.9% |
| 2015 | +1.6%✓ | -0.6% |
| 2016 | +7.9% | +13.9% |
| 2017 | +41.0%✓ | +21.0% |
| 2018 | -2.0%✓ | -5.1% |
| 2019 | +34.0%✓ | +31.1% |
| 2020 | +18.5%✓ | +10.5% |
| 2021 | +16.0% | +31.3% |
| 2022 | -9.0%✓ | -19.0% |
| 2023 | +4.9% | +26.0% |
| 2024 | +25.5%✓ | +25.3% |
| 2025 | +19.8%✓ | +18.2% |
| 2026* | +38.7%✓ | +13.2% |
✓ beat the index that year · * 2026 through September only
Hypothetical portfolios only, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The same stock selection as "Buy the Pullback", but always invested — even when the market is below its 200-day average. Added for tracking after the 2021-2026 test showed the market filter was what hurt both portfolios in that period. Rebalanced once a month.
📈 The market (S&P 500) is above its 200-day average. This portfolio is always invested, filter or not
Target Corporation
TGT · Consumer Staples
Entered: Sep 24, 2026 · $156.15
+0.0% since entry
FOMO: 2/100
Coherent Corp.
COHR · Information Technology
Entered: Sep 24, 2026 · $290.61
+0.0% since entry
FOMO: 3/100
Northern Trust
NTRS · Financials
Entered: Sep 24, 2026 · $174.50
+0.0% since entry
FOMO: 3/100
Steel Dynamics
STLD · Materials
Entered: Sep 24, 2026 · $235.20
+0.0% since entry
FOMO: 4/100
Western Digital
WDC · Information Technology
Entered: Sep 24, 2026 · $450.31
+0.0% since entry
FOMO: 5/100
Welltower
WELL · Real Estate
Entered: Sep 24, 2026 · $233.61
+0.0% since entry
FOMO: 6/100
CSX Corporation
CSX · Industrials
Entered: Sep 24, 2026 · $46.95
+0.0% since entry
FOMO: 7/100
Nucor
NUE · Materials
Entered: Sep 24, 2026 · $247.96
+0.0% since entry
FOMO: 7/100
Targa Resources
TRGP · Energy
Entered: Sep 24, 2026 · $283.15
+0.0% since entry
FOMO: 8/100
BNY Mellon
BNY · Financials
Entered: Sep 24, 2026 · $150.19
+0.0% since entry
FOMO: 8/100
+0.0%
Real performance since launch — Cumulative return
+0.0%
S&P 500 (SPY), same period
0
Closed months
Sep 24, 2026
Last rebalance
Historical backtest
2001-2020: 11.7%/yr vs 6.2% for the S&P 500. Max drawdown -64.7% (index: -53.6%).
2021 to Sep 2026: 15.7%/yr vs 15.1% for the S&P 500. Max drawdown -15.1% (index: -22.4%).
In the open: this portfolio was added after seeing the 2021-2026 results, so that period's numbers don't prove it is better. The live record from today is the real test. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
