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VRRM

Verra Mobility Corporation Class A Common Stock

Consumer Discretionary · ·

$5.12

$0.49 (-8.7%)

Market Cap

$778.15M

Day Range

$4.77 - $5.21

52-Week Range

$3.40 - $25.57

Beta

Next Earnings

27.10.2026

VRRM is a stock from the Consumer Cyclical sectorRetail, automotive, and leisure — demand rises and falls with economic sentiment and consumers' disposable income.

🏢 Similar Stocks in the Same Sector

-77.5% (1Y)

Investor Score
64/ 100C+
🟡 Moderate

This score and all analysis on this page are for informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. Read the full disclaimer

📈58CTechnical
💰68B-Fundamental
🚀65B-Growth
💎67B-Valuation
📰98A+News
🏦42DQuality
⚠️42DRisk

Weighted: Technical 25% · Fundamental 20% · Growth 15% · Valuation 15% · News 10% · Quality 10% · Risk 5%

🔍 Cross-Check

Overall Score

🟡 Mixed

Technical Trend

🟡 Mixed

✅ Why is the score relatively high?

  • 🟢 Estimated fair value: $10.60 vs. price $5.12 (+107.0%)
  • 🟢 Earnings per share (EPS) growth: 347.4%
  • 🟢 Net income growth: 334.5%
  • 🟢 Return on equity (ROE): 46.6% — strong
  • 🟢 Current ratio: 2.09

⚠️ What's concerning?

  • 🔴 Operating margin is eroding over time
  • 🔴 ATR: 6.4% of price
  • 🔴 Free cash flow growth: -10.5%
  • 🔴 Debt/equity: 3.51
  • 🔴 Price is below the 200-day average

🚦 Quality & Risk Checks

🔴 Operating margin stability🟡 Conservative leverage🔴 Daily volatility (ATR)🔴 Leverage risk🟢 Liquidity risk

📰 News Trend

Based on real financial news (Finnhub)
🟢 Positive

Everyone's writing about Verra Mobility Corporation Class A Common Stock. News trend score: 98. Reason: 10 of the last 18 articles are positive, versus 2 negative.

News trend analysis is based on article sentiment only, and is not investment advice or financial counsel. Read the full disclaimer

📈 Technical Analysis

Based on the last 251 trading days, calculated from real price data. Click an indicator for details and a chart.

🟡 Indicators are mixed — no clear bias (7 bullish · 5 bearish · 0 neutral)

Conclusions

  • 🟢Price vs. SMA 50Price is above the 50-day average
  • 🔴Price vs. SMA 200Price is below the 200-day average
  • 🟢MACDMACD histogram is positive — rising momentum
  • 🟢RSIRSI 65.4 — healthy positive momentum
  • 🔴Stochastic%K 81.7 — overbought
  • 🟢ADX (trend strength)ADX 38.8 — strong trend
  • 🟢Volume trendRising volume supports the price advance
  • 🔴Relative strength vs. S&P 500-66.0% over the last 3 months relative to the index
  • 🟢Bollinger BandsPrice is in the upper third of the Bollinger Bands (96%B) — strong momentum (risk of a pullback)
  • 🟢ROC (rate of change)ROC 12 days: 37.8%
  • 🔴Parabolic SARPrice is below the SAR point — downtrend
  • 🔴CMF (money flow)CMF 20 days: -0.13

Wyckoff Method Analysis

A market-structure read based purely on real price and volume data — not full classic Wyckoff schematic identification (Phase A-E), but a quantitative analysis of what can reliably be computed: trading ranges, "effort vs. result", volume within the range, and Spring/Upthrust detection.

Markdown

The stock is in a clear downtrend with no defined trading range in the period examined.

Low confidence

Evidence Behind This Read

  • 🔴Falling price trendA -57.1% change over the last 50 days, with no defined trading range.
  • 🔴Divergence between price and cumulative money flow (A/D Line)Price and the cumulative Accumulation/Distribution Line are moving in opposite directions — a classic Wyckoff sign that the move isn't backed by real money, and may be less stable than it looks.

The Wyckoff Method, developed by Richard Wyckoff in the early 20th century, reads the balance of supply and demand through price and volume, based on the premise that large investors ("smart money") quietly accumulate shares before rallies and quietly distribute them before declines. The read here is based solely on real price and volume data — full, precise identification of classic Wyckoff patterns (such as Phases A-E) requires human chart-reading experience and judgment, so this is an approximate algorithmic read, not a substitute for professional analysis. This should not be considered investment advice.

🎯 Trade Planning (M.A.E.E Framework)

Based on a mechanical trading method: market structure → value zone → ATR-based exit point. Not investment advice — a calculation tool only.

1️⃣ Market Structure

🔴 Downtrend

The price is below the 200-day average — an environment that mainly favors looking for selling (Short) opportunities, not buying.

2️⃣ Value Zone

🟡 Price far from value zone

The price is currently far from the 50-day average — the method recommends waiting for a "pullback" before entering, rather than chasing prices.

3️⃣ Suggested Exit Point (ATR-based)

Method formula: Stop-loss = resistance plusone ATR margin — this way the stop adapts to the stock's actual volatility, rather than an arbitrary number.

Entry

$5.61

Stop-Loss

$14.03

Risk per Share

$8.42

Direction

Short

Profit Targets by Risk/Reward Ratio (R)

1:2 R

-$11.22

1:3 R

-$19.64

1:5 R

-$36.47

💰 Position Size Calculator

A core principle of the method: never risk a fixed dollar amount — risk a fixed percentage of equity, and let the position size vary according to the risk per share.

Suggested Position Size

11 sh.

💰 Financial Health

Profitability

Gross Margin

Operating Margin

179.3%

Net Margin

102.8%

EBITDA Margin

265.1%

Efficiency

ROE

46.6%

ROA

8.3%

ROIC

EPS

$0.86

Balance Sheet

Cash

$65.27M

Total Debt

$1.03B

Current Ratio

2.09

Debt/Equity

3.51

Conclusions

  • 🟢Operating marginOperating margin: 179.3% — strong
  • 🟢Net marginNet margin: 102.8% — strong
  • 🟢Return on equity (ROE)Return on equity (ROE): 46.6% — strong
  • 🟡Return on assets (ROA)Return on assets (ROA): 8.3% — reasonable
  • 🟢Current ratio (liquidity)Current ratio: 2.09
  • 🔴Debt-to-equityDebt/equity: 3.51
  • 🟡Interest coverageInterest coverage: 3.7x

🚀 Growth

Revenue

Earnings per Share (EPS)

Net Income

Free Cash Flow (FCF)

Conclusions

  • 🟢Revenue growth (last year)Revenue growth (last year): 14.6%
  • 🟢Earnings per share (EPS) growthEarnings per share (EPS) growth: 347.4%
  • 🔴Free cash flow growthFree cash flow growth: -10.5%
  • 🟢Net income growthNet income growth: 334.5%

💎 Fair Value (Valuation)

Current Price

$5.12

Estimated Fair Value (DCF)

$10.60

Gap

+107.0%

🟢 Appears cheap relative to estimated value

Show all model (DCF) assumptions →

Year 1 Growth Rate

12.1%

Discount Rate (WACC)

9.0%

Terminal Growth Rate

2.5%

Projection Years

5

YearGrowth RateProjected FCFPresent Value
112.1%$153.31M$140.65M
29.7%$168.24M$141.60M
37.3%$180.56M$139.42M
44.9%$189.43M$134.19M
52.5%$194.16M$126.19M

Base FCF (last actual year)

$136.71M

Terminal Value

$3.06B

Present Value of Terminal Value

$1.99B

Enterprise Value

$2.67B

Net Debt

$962.77M

Equity Value

$1.71B

*The DCF model is an estimate based on assumptions — not a guaranteed forecast. You can change the assumptions to examine different scenarios.

Book Value per Share

$1.82

Tangible Book Value per Share (Tangible NAV)

-$3.83

Conclusions

  • 🟢DCF Fair ValueEstimated fair value: $10.60 vs. price $5.12 (+107.0%)
  • 🟡Tangible Net Asset Value (NAV)NAV per share: -$3.83
  • 🟢P/EP/E: 6.6

🕴️ Insider Trading

Real transactions by officers and insiders, as reported to the SEC on Form 4 — 0 purchases and 0 sales out of the last 25 filings.

NameTransaction TypeDateSharesChangePrice
Moser StaceyGrant/Award from Employer13.6.202680,299+80,299
Keyser JonathanGrant/Award from Employer1.6.2026460,122+460,122
Conti Craig CGrant/Award from Employer29.5.2026388,026+388,026
REXFORD JOHN HGrant/Award from Employer19.5.202614,683+14,683
RUSSO CYNTHIA AGrant/Award from Employer19.5.202614,683+14,683
Byrne Patrick JGrant/Award from Employer19.5.202614,683+14,683
HUERTA MICHAEL PGrant/Award from Employer19.5.202614,683+14,683
Ratnakar RajGrant/Award from Employer19.5.202614,683+14,683
DAVIS DOUGLAS LEEGrant/Award from Employer19.5.202614,683+14,683
REXFORD JOHN HExercise of Derivative Securities18.5.202655,453+7,949
REXFORD JOHN HExercise of Derivative Securities18.5.20260-7,949
RUSSO CYNTHIA AExercise of Derivative Securities18.5.202656,064+7,949
RUSSO CYNTHIA AExercise of Derivative Securities18.5.20260-7,949
Byrne Patrick JExercise of Derivative Securities18.5.202646,362+7,949
Byrne Patrick JExercise of Derivative Securities18.5.20260-7,949
HUERTA MICHAEL PExercise of Derivative Securities18.5.202626,203+7,949
HUERTA MICHAEL PExercise of Derivative Securities18.5.20260-7,949
Ratnakar RajExercise of Derivative Securities18.5.202616,152+7,949
Ratnakar RajExercise of Derivative Securities18.5.20260-7,949
DAVIS DOUGLAS LEEExercise of Derivative Securities18.5.202656,064+7,949
DAVIS DOUGLAS LEEExercise of Derivative Securities18.5.20260-7,949
Baldwin JonathanExercise of Derivative Securities11.5.202648,804+10,917
Baldwin JonathanTax Withholding in Shares11.5.202643,746-5,058$13.79
Baldwin JonathanExercise of Derivative Securities11.5.20260+10,917
Conti Craig CExercise of Derivative Securities11.5.2026107,778+5,369

📉 Short Interest

Official FINRA data — the number of shares open in short positions, plus daily short-sale activity.

Monthly Trend — Open Short Interest

-0.6%

10,989,646 shares short as of 2026-07-15 · vs. 11,053,056 on 2026-06-30

Official biweekly report (FINRA Rule 4560) — no real higher-frequency data exists for this metric.

Weekly Trend — Daily Short-Sale Activity

+9.9%

55.5% of trading volume this week was short selling, vs. 50.5% the prior week

Based on daily short-sale volume (Reg SHO) — a different metric from the open short interest above: this is daily trading volume, not an open position, so it updates weekly rather than biweekly.

📰 News & Sentiment

Sentiment based on basic keywords (not AI) — 10 positive, 6 neutral, 2 negative out of the last 18 articles.