VITL
Vital Farms Inc. Common StockConsumer Staples · ·
$12.51
▲ $0.27 (+2.2%)
Market Cap
$537.07M
Day Range
$10.86 - $12.83
52-Week Range
$7.95 - $53.13
Beta
—
Next Earnings
02.11.2026
VITL is a stock from the Consumer Defensive sector — Food, beverages, and household products — steady demand even in a recession, since these are essential consumer goods.
🏢 Similar Stocks in the Same Sector
-67.2% (1Y)
This score and all analysis on this page are for informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. Read the full disclaimer
Weighted: Technical 25% · Fundamental 20% · Growth 15% · Valuation 15% · News 10% · Quality 10% · Risk 5%
🔍 Cross-Check
Overall Score
🟡 Mixed
Technical Trend
🔴 Bearish
Insiders
🟢 Bullish
✅ Why is the score relatively high?
- 🟢 Revenue growth (last year): 25.3%
- 🟢 Earnings per share (EPS) growth: 22.0%
- 🟢 Net income growth: 24.2%
- 🟢 Operating margin is stable or improving over time
- 🟢 Current ratio: 2.16
⚠️ What's concerning?
- 🔴 Estimated fair value: -$26.74 vs. price $12.51 (-313.8%)
- 🔴 ATR: 6.0% of price
- 🔴 Free cash flow growth: -233.3%
- 🔴 Price is below the 200-day average
- 🔴 MACD histogram is negative — falling momentum
🚦 Quality & Risk Checks
📰 News Trend
Based on real financial news (Finnhub)Everyone's writing about Vital Farms Inc. Common Stock. News trend score: 56. Reason: 2 of the last 6 articles are positive, versus 1 negative.
News trend analysis is based on article sentiment only, and is not investment advice or financial counsel. Read the full disclaimer
📈 Technical Analysis
Based on the last 251 trading days, calculated from real price data. Click an indicator for details and a chart.
🔴 Most indicators support a downtrend (1 bullish · 7 bearish · 3 neutral)
Conclusions
- 🟢Price vs. SMA 50 — Price is above the 50-day average
- 🔴Price vs. SMA 200 — Price is below the 200-day average
- 🔴MACD — MACD histogram is negative — falling momentum
- 🔴RSI — RSI 46.3 — weak/negative bias
- 🟡Stochastic — %K 21.9 — neutral range
- 🟡ADX (trend strength) — ADX 22.8 — weak trend/choppy
- 🔴Relative strength vs. S&P 500 — -9.1% over the last 3 months relative to the index
- 🔴Bollinger Bands — Price is in the lower third of the Bollinger Bands (6%B) — weakness (chance of a recovery)
- 🔴ROC (rate of change) — ROC 12 days: -11.0%
- 🔴Parabolic SAR — Price is below the SAR point — downtrend
- 🟡CMF (money flow) — CMF 20 days: 0.03
Wyckoff Method Analysis
A market-structure read based purely on real price and volume data — not full classic Wyckoff schematic identification (Phase A-E), but a quantitative analysis of what can reliably be computed: trading ranges, "effort vs. result", volume within the range, and Spring/Upthrust detection.
The stock is in a clear uptrend with no defined trading range in the period examined.
Medium confidence
Evidence Behind This Read
- 🟢Rising price trend — A 24.0% change over the last 50 days, with no defined trading range.
The Wyckoff Method, developed by Richard Wyckoff in the early 20th century, reads the balance of supply and demand through price and volume, based on the premise that large investors ("smart money") quietly accumulate shares before rallies and quietly distribute them before declines. The read here is based solely on real price and volume data — full, precise identification of classic Wyckoff patterns (such as Phases A-E) requires human chart-reading experience and judgment, so this is an approximate algorithmic read, not a substitute for professional analysis. This should not be considered investment advice.
🎯 Trade Planning (M.A.E.E Framework)
Based on a mechanical trading method: market structure → value zone → ATR-based exit point. Not investment advice — a calculation tool only.
1️⃣ Market Structure
🔴 Downtrend
The price is below the 200-day average — an environment that mainly favors looking for selling (Short) opportunities, not buying.
2️⃣ Value Zone
🟡 Price far from value zone
The price is currently far from the 50-day average — the method recommends waiting for a "pullback" before entering, rather than chasing prices.
3️⃣ Suggested Exit Point (ATR-based)
Method formula: Stop-loss = resistance plusone ATR margin — this way the stop adapts to the stock's actual volatility, rather than an arbitrary number.
Entry
$12.24
Stop-Loss
$14.79
Risk per Share
$2.55
Direction
Short
Profit Targets by Risk/Reward Ratio (R)
1:2 R
$7.14
1:3 R
$4.59
1:5 R
-$0.52
💰 Position Size Calculator
A core principle of the method: never risk a fixed dollar amount — risk a fixed percentage of equity, and let the position size vary according to the risk per share.
Suggested Position Size
39 sh.
💰 Financial Health
Profitability
Gross Margin
37.6%
Operating Margin
11.6%
Net Margin
8.7%
EBITDA Margin
12.9%
Efficiency
ROE
18.9%
ROA
12.8%
ROIC
—
EPS
$1.49
Balance Sheet
Cash
$48.83M
Total Debt
—
Current Ratio
2.16
Debt/Equity
—
Conclusions
- 🟡Gross margin — Gross margin: 37.6% — reasonable
- 🟡Operating margin — Operating margin: 11.6% — reasonable
- 🟡Net margin — Net margin: 8.7% — reasonable
- 🟡Return on equity (ROE) — Return on equity (ROE): 18.9% — reasonable
- 🟢Return on assets (ROA) — Return on assets (ROA): 12.8% — strong
- 🟢Current ratio (liquidity) — Current ratio: 2.16
🚀 Growth
Revenue
Earnings per Share (EPS)
Net Income
Free Cash Flow (FCF)
Conclusions
- 🟢Revenue growth (last year) — Revenue growth (last year): 25.3%
- 🟢Earnings per share (EPS) growth — Earnings per share (EPS) growth: 22.0%
- 🔴Free cash flow growth — Free cash flow growth: -233.3%
- 🟢Net income growth — Net income growth: 24.2%
💎 Fair Value (Valuation)
Current Price
$12.51
Estimated Fair Value (DCF)
-$26.74
Gap
-313.8%
🔴 Appears expensive relative to estimated value
Show all model (DCF) assumptions →
Year 1 Growth Rate
25.0%
Discount Rate (WACC)
9.0%
Terminal Growth Rate
2.5%
Projection Years
5
| Year | Growth Rate | Projected FCF | Present Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 25.0% | $-60.29M | $-55.32M |
| 2 | 19.4% | $-71.98M | $-60.58M |
| 3 | 13.8% | $-81.87M | $-63.22M |
| 4 | 8.1% | $-88.52M | $-62.71M |
| 5 | 2.5% | $-90.74M | $-58.97M |
Base FCF (last actual year)
$-48.23M
Terminal Value
$-1.43B
Present Value of Terminal Value
$-929.96M
Enterprise Value
$-1.23B
Net Debt
$0
Equity Value
$-1.23B
*The DCF model is an estimate based on assumptions — not a guaranteed forecast. You can change the assumptions to examine different scenarios.
Book Value per Share
$7.63
Tangible Book Value per Share (Tangible NAV)
$7.55
Conclusions
- 🔴DCF Fair Value — Estimated fair value: -$26.74 vs. price $12.51 (-313.8%)
- 🟡Tangible Net Asset Value (NAV) — NAV per share: $7.55
- 🟢P/E — P/E: 8.5
🕴️ Insider Trading
Real transactions by officers and insiders, as reported to the SEC on Form 4 — 13 purchases and 0 sales out of the last 25 filings.
| Name | Transaction Type | Date | Shares | Change | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flanagan Glenda J | Grant/Award from Employer | 10.6.2026 | 47,934 | +10,436 | — |
| Post Denny Marie | Grant/Award from Employer | 10.6.2026 | 29,748 | +10,436 | — |
| Kennedy Kelly J. | Grant/Award from Employer | 10.6.2026 | 33,363 | +10,436 | — |
| Khoury Karl | Grant/Award from Employer | 10.6.2026 | 130,225 | +10,436 | — |
| Cyr William B. | Grant/Award from Employer | 10.6.2026 | 24,230 | +10,436 | — |
| Ruiz Gisel | Grant/Award from Employer | 10.6.2026 | 56,985 | +10,436 | — |
| Amoo-Gottfried Kofi Owusu | Grant/Award from Employer | 10.6.2026 | 41,497 | +10,436 | — |
| Van Hoven Reena Chauhan | Open Market Purchase | 19.5.2026 | 25,827 | +2,242 | $8.92 |
| Flanagan Glenda J | Open Market Purchase | 18.5.2026 | 37,498 | +6,100 | $8.33 |
| Flanagan Glenda J | Open Market Purchase | 18.5.2026 | 37,498 | +6,100 | $8.33 |
| Pappas Peter Nicholas | Grant/Award from Employer | 15.5.2026 | 85,564 | +395 | $7.21 |
| Bal Joanne | Grant/Award from Employer | 15.5.2026 | 55,843 | +500 | $7.21 |
| Amoo-Gottfried Kofi Owusu | Open Market Purchase | 15.5.2026 | 31,061 | +2,375 | $8.45 |
| Wrede Thilo | Grant/Award from Employer | 15.5.2026 | 75,977 | +500 | $7.21 |
| Coon Stephanie | Open Market Purchase | 15.5.2026 | 62,314 | +5,895 | $8.42 |
| Coon Stephanie | Grant/Award from Employer | 15.5.2026 | 62,814 | +500 | $7.21 |
| Diez-Canseco Russell | Grant/Award from Employer | 15.5.2026 | 706,060 | +500 | $7.21 |
| Kennedy Kelly J. | Open Market Purchase | 14.5.2026 | 22,927 | +2,500 | $8.40 |
| Holland Joseph Michael | Open Market Purchase | 14.5.2026 | 38,150 | +12,484 | $8.00 |
| Pappas Peter Nicholas | Open Market Purchase | 14.5.2026 | 85,169 | +3,500 | $8.51 |
| McKeon Kathryn | Open Market Purchase | 14.5.2026 | 50,275 | +604 | $8.28 |
| Cyr William B. | Open Market Purchase | 14.5.2026 | 13,794 | +6,000 | $8.52 |
| Kennedy Kelly J. | Open Market Purchase | 14.5.2026 | 22,927 | +2,500 | $8.40 |
| Holland Joseph Michael | Open Market Purchase | 14.5.2026 | 38,150 | +12,484 | $8.00 |
| Cyr William B. | Open Market Purchase | 14.5.2026 | 13,794 | +6,000 | $8.52 |
📉 Short Interest
Official FINRA data — the number of shares open in short positions, plus daily short-sale activity.
Monthly Trend — Open Short Interest
7,978,805 shares short as of 2026-07-15 · vs. 7,412,289 on 2026-06-30
Official biweekly report (FINRA Rule 4560) — no real higher-frequency data exists for this metric.
Weekly Trend — Daily Short-Sale Activity
36.5% of trading volume this week was short selling, vs. 36.2% the prior week
Based on daily short-sale volume (Reg SHO) — a different metric from the open short interest above: this is daily trading volume, not an open position, so it updates weekly rather than biweekly.
📰 News & Sentiment
Sentiment based on basic keywords (not AI) — 2 positive, 3 neutral, 1 negative out of the last 6 articles.
SeekingAlpha · 7.8.2026
SeekingAlpha · 7.8.2026
Benzinga · 6.8.2026
Benzinga · 6.8.2026
Benzinga · 6.8.2026
SeekingAlpha · 24.7.2026