URBN
Urban Outfitters Inc. Common StockConsumer Discretionary · ·
$77.67
▼ $0.22 (-0.3%)
Market Cap
$6.65B
Day Range
$77.13 - $79.21
52-Week Range
$59.54 - $84.35
Beta
—
Next Earnings
26.08.2026
URBN is a stock from the Consumer Cyclical sector — Retail, automotive, and leisure — demand rises and falls with economic sentiment and consumers' disposable income.
🏢 Similar Stocks in the Same Sector
-2.4% (1Y)
This score and all analysis on this page are for informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. Read the full disclaimer
Weighted: Technical 25% · Fundamental 20% · Growth 15% · Valuation 15% · News 10% · Quality 10% · Risk 5%
🔍 Cross-Check
Overall Score
🟡 Mixed
Technical Trend
🟢 Bullish
✅ Why is the score relatively high?
- 🟢 SMA 50 recently crossed above SMA 200
- 🟢 Operating margin is stable or improving over time
- 🟢 Current ratio: 1.51
- 🟢 Price is above the 50-day average
- 🟢 Price is above the 200-day average
⚠️ What's concerning?
- 🔴 Estimated fair value: $62.28 vs. price $77.67 (-19.8%)
- 🔴 Free cash flow growth: -1.6%
- 🔴 Operating margin: 9.8% — weak
- 🔴 Volume is falling despite the price advance — possible weakening
🚦 Quality & Risk Checks
📈 Technical Analysis
Based on the last 251 trading days, calculated from real price data. Click an indicator for details and a chart.
🟢 Most indicators support an uptrend (10 bullish · 1 bearish · 2 neutral)
Conclusions
- 🟢Price vs. SMA 50 — Price is above the 50-day average
- 🟢Price vs. SMA 200 — Price is above the 200-day average
- 🟢Golden Cross — SMA 50 recently crossed above SMA 200
- 🟢MACD — MACD histogram is positive — rising momentum
- 🟢RSI — RSI 60.4 — healthy positive momentum
- 🟡Stochastic — %K 78.0 — neutral range
- 🟡ADX (trend strength) — ADX 20.3 — weak trend/choppy
- 🔴Volume trend — Volume is falling despite the price advance — possible weakening
- 🟢Relative strength vs. S&P 500 — +6.5% over the last 3 months relative to the index
- 🟢Bollinger Bands — Price is in the upper third of the Bollinger Bands (87%B) — strong momentum (risk of a pullback)
- 🟢ROC (rate of change) — ROC 12 days: 4.1%
- 🟢Parabolic SAR — Price is above the SAR point — uptrend
- 🟢CMF (money flow) — CMF 20 days: 0.12
Wyckoff Method Analysis
A market-structure read based purely on real price and volume data — not full classic Wyckoff schematic identification (Phase A-E), but a quantitative analysis of what can reliably be computed: trading ranges, "effort vs. result", volume within the range, and Spring/Upthrust detection.
A pattern consistent with an early/mid distribution phase — a trading range after an advance with declining volume.
Medium confidence
$65.70
Range Bottom
$80.50
Range Top
50
Trading Days in Range
Evidence Behind This Read
- 🟡Trading range identified — The stock is trading in a 22.5% range (between 65.70 and 80.50) over 50 trading days.
- 🔴The range follows an uptrend — Under the Wyckoff method, a trading range following an advance is a natural candidate for a Distribution phase — smart money selling to the last buyers.
- 🟢Trading volume in the range is declining — Declining volume across the range suggests supply (in accumulation) or demand (in distribution) is being exhausted — usually a sign the range is nearing its end.
The Wyckoff Method, developed by Richard Wyckoff in the early 20th century, reads the balance of supply and demand through price and volume, based on the premise that large investors ("smart money") quietly accumulate shares before rallies and quietly distribute them before declines. The read here is based solely on real price and volume data — full, precise identification of classic Wyckoff patterns (such as Phases A-E) requires human chart-reading experience and judgment, so this is an approximate algorithmic read, not a substitute for professional analysis. This should not be considered investment advice.
🎯 Trade Planning (M.A.E.E Framework)
Based on a mechanical trading method: market structure → value zone → ATR-based exit point. Not investment advice — a calculation tool only.
1️⃣ Market Structure
🟢 Uptrend
The price is above the 200-day average — per the market-structure method, this environment mainly favors looking for buying (Long) opportunities.
2️⃣ Value Zone
🟡 Price far from value zone
The price is currently far from the 50-day average — the method recommends waiting for a "pullback" before entering, rather than chasing prices.
3️⃣ Suggested Exit Point (ATR-based)
Method formula: Stop-loss = support minusone ATR margin — this way the stop adapts to the stock's actual volatility, rather than an arbitrary number.
Entry
$77.89
Stop-Loss
$62.90
Risk per Share
$14.99
Direction
Long
Profit Targets by Risk/Reward Ratio (R)
1:2 R
$107.87
1:3 R
$122.86
1:5 R
$152.84
💰 Position Size Calculator
A core principle of the method: never risk a fixed dollar amount — risk a fixed percentage of equity, and let the position size vary according to the risk per share.
Suggested Position Size
6 sh.
💰 Financial Health
Profitability
Gross Margin
36.0%
Operating Margin
9.8%
Net Margin
7.5%
EBITDA Margin
11.9%
Efficiency
ROE
16.5%
ROA
9.3%
ROIC
—
EPS
$5.15
Balance Sheet
Cash
$369.21M
Total Debt
—
Current Ratio
1.51
Debt/Equity
—
Conclusions
- 🟡Gross margin — Gross margin: 36.0% — reasonable
- 🔴Operating margin — Operating margin: 9.8% — weak
- 🟡Net margin — Net margin: 7.5% — reasonable
- 🟡Return on equity (ROE) — Return on equity (ROE): 16.5% — reasonable
- 🟡Return on assets (ROA) — Return on assets (ROA): 9.3% — reasonable
- 🟢Current ratio (liquidity) — Current ratio: 1.51
- 🟢Interest coverage — Interest coverage: 123.2x
🚀 Growth
Revenue
Earnings per Share (EPS)
Net Income
Free Cash Flow (FCF)
Conclusions
- 🟢Revenue growth (last year) — Revenue growth (last year): 11.1%
- 🟢Earnings per share (EPS) growth — Earnings per share (EPS) growth: 18.8%
- 🔴Free cash flow growth — Free cash flow growth: -1.6%
- 🟢Net income growth — Net income growth: 15.5%
💎 Fair Value (Valuation)
Current Price
$77.67
Estimated Fair Value (DCF)
$62.28
Gap
-19.8%
🔴 Appears expensive relative to estimated value
Show all model (DCF) assumptions →
Year 1 Growth Rate
8.8%
Discount Rate (WACC)
9.0%
Terminal Growth Rate
2.5%
Projection Years
5
| Year | Growth Rate | Projected FCF | Present Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8.8% | $342.59M | $314.30M |
| 2 | 7.2% | $367.21M | $309.08M |
| 3 | 5.6% | $387.87M | $299.51M |
| 4 | 4.1% | $403.63M | $285.94M |
| 5 | 2.5% | $413.72M | $268.89M |
Base FCF (last actual year)
$315.02M
Terminal Value
$6.52B
Present Value of Terminal Value
$4.24B
Enterprise Value
$5.72B
Net Debt
$0
Equity Value
$5.72B
*The DCF model is an estimate based on assumptions — not a guaranteed forecast. You can change the assumptions to examine different scenarios.
Book Value per Share
$30.66
Tangible Book Value per Share (Tangible NAV)
$30.66
Conclusions
- 🔴DCF Fair Value — Estimated fair value: $62.28 vs. price $77.67 (-19.8%)
- 🟡Tangible Net Asset Value (NAV) — NAV per share: $30.66
- 🟡P/E — P/E: 15.4
🕴️ Insider Trading
Real transactions by officers and insiders, as reported to the SEC on Form 4 — 0 purchases and 0 sales out of the last 25 filings.
| Name | Transaction Type | Date | Shares | Change | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCDONALD WESLEY S | Grant/Award from Employer | 3.6.2026 | 2,100 | +2,100 | — |
| ANTOIAN EDWARD N | Grant/Award from Employer | 3.6.2026 | 2,100 | +2,100 | — |
| CHERKEN HARRY S JR | Grant/Award from Employer | 3.6.2026 | 2,100 | +2,100 | — |
| Maredia Amin N. | Grant/Award from Employer | 3.6.2026 | 2,100 | +2,100 | — |
| Morgenfeld Todd R | Grant/Award from Employer | 3.6.2026 | 2,100 | +2,100 | — |
| Mulliken John Champlin | Grant/Award from Employer | 3.6.2026 | 2,100 | +2,100 | — |
| Egan Mary | Grant/Award from Employer | 3.6.2026 | 2,100 | +2,100 | — |
| Campbell Kotzman Kelly | Grant/Award from Employer | 3.6.2026 | 2,100 | +2,100 | — |
| MCDONALD WESLEY S | Exercise of Derivative Securities | 2.6.2026 | 17,350 | +2,100 | — |
| MCDONALD WESLEY S | Exercise of Derivative Securities | 2.6.2026 | 0 | -2,100 | — |
| ANTOIAN EDWARD N | Exercise of Derivative Securities | 2.6.2026 | 64,178 | +2,100 | — |
| ANTOIAN EDWARD N | Exercise of Derivative Securities | 2.6.2026 | 0 | -2,100 | — |
| CHERKEN HARRY S JR | Exercise of Derivative Securities | 2.6.2026 | 499,315 | +2,100 | — |
| CHERKEN HARRY S JR | Exercise of Derivative Securities | 2.6.2026 | 0 | -2,100 | — |
| Maredia Amin N. | Exercise of Derivative Securities | 2.6.2026 | 21,250 | +2,100 | — |
| Maredia Amin N. | Exercise of Derivative Securities | 2.6.2026 | 0 | -2,100 | — |
| Morgenfeld Todd R | Exercise of Derivative Securities | 2.6.2026 | 29,550 | +2,100 | — |
| Morgenfeld Todd R | Exercise of Derivative Securities | 2.6.2026 | 0 | -2,100 | — |
| Mulliken John Champlin | Exercise of Derivative Securities | 2.6.2026 | 21,250 | +2,100 | — |
| Mulliken John Champlin | Exercise of Derivative Securities | 2.6.2026 | 0 | -2,100 | — |
| Egan Mary | Exercise of Derivative Securities | 2.6.2026 | 16,350 | +2,100 | — |
| Egan Mary | Exercise of Derivative Securities | 2.6.2026 | 0 | -2,100 | — |
| Campbell Kotzman Kelly | Exercise of Derivative Securities | 2.6.2026 | 10,550 | +2,100 | — |
| Campbell Kotzman Kelly | Exercise of Derivative Securities | 2.6.2026 | 0 | -2,100 | — |
| ANTOIAN EDWARD N | Exercise of Derivative Securities | 22.5.2026 | 68,537 | +20,000 | $23.74 |
📉 Short Interest
Official FINRA data — the number of shares open in short positions, plus daily short-sale activity.
Monthly Trend — Open Short Interest
6,477,865 shares short as of 2026-07-15 · vs. 6,435,743 on 2026-06-30
Official biweekly report (FINRA Rule 4560) — no real higher-frequency data exists for this metric.
Weekly Trend — Daily Short-Sale Activity
70.7% of trading volume this week was short selling, vs. 61.3% the prior week
Based on daily short-sale volume (Reg SHO) — a different metric from the open short interest above: this is daily trading volume, not an open position, so it updates weekly rather than biweekly.
📰 News & Sentiment
Sentiment based on basic keywords (not AI) — 0 positive, 0 neutral, 0 negative out of the last 0 articles.
No recent articles found for this stock.