SMG
Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (The)Industrials · ·
$62.06
▼ $4.07 (-6.2%)
Market Cap
$3.61B
Day Range
$61.94 - $66.33
52-Week Range
$52.00 - $75.34
Beta
—
Next Earnings
04.11.2026
SMG is a stock from the Industrials sector — Manufacturing, aerospace, defense, and infrastructure — closely tied to capital-investment cycles and economic growth.
🏢 Similar Stocks in the Same Sector
+4.1% (1Y)
This score and all analysis on this page are for informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. Read the full disclaimer
Weighted: Technical 25% · Fundamental 20% · Growth 15% · Valuation 15% · News 10% · Quality 10% · Risk 5%
🔍 Cross-Check
Overall Score
🟡 Mixed
Technical Trend
🔴 Bearish
Insiders
🔴 Bearish
✅ Why is the score relatively high?
- 🟢 Earnings per share (EPS) growth: 504.9%
- 🟢 Net income growth: 516.0%
- 🟢 Debt/equity: -5.89
- 🟢 Price is above the 200-day average
- 🟢 Debt/equity: -5.89
⚠️ What's concerning?
- 🔴 Estimated fair value: $27.19 vs. price $62.06 (-56.2%)
- 🔴 Operating margin is eroding over time
- 🔴 ATR: 4.8% of price
- 🔴 Return on equity (ROE): -40.6% (negative)
- 🔴 Revenue growth (last year): -3.9%
🚦 Quality & Risk Checks
📰 News Trend
Based on real financial news (Finnhub)Everyone's writing about Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (The). News trend score: 100. Reason: 11 of the last 20 articles are positive, versus 2 negative.
News trend analysis is based on article sentiment only, and is not investment advice or financial counsel. Read the full disclaimer
📈 Technical Analysis
Based on the last 252 trading days, calculated from real price data. Click an indicator for details and a chart.
🔴 Most indicators support a downtrend (1 bullish · 9 bearish · 1 neutral)
Conclusions
- 🔴Price vs. SMA 50 — Price is below the 50-day average
- 🟢Price vs. SMA 200 — Price is above the 200-day average
- 🔴MACD — MACD histogram is negative — falling momentum
- 🔴RSI — RSI 41.1 — weak/negative bias
- 🔴Stochastic — %K 0.9 — oversold
- 🟡ADX (trend strength) — ADX 17.2 — weak trend/choppy
- 🔴Relative strength vs. S&P 500 — -4.6% over the last 3 months relative to the index
- 🔴Bollinger Bands — Price is in the lower third of the Bollinger Bands (4%B) — weakness (chance of a recovery)
- 🔴ROC (rate of change) — ROC 12 days: -8.1%
- 🔴Parabolic SAR — Price is below the SAR point — downtrend
- 🔴CMF (money flow) — CMF 20 days: -0.09
Wyckoff Method Analysis
A market-structure read based purely on real price and volume data — not full classic Wyckoff schematic identification (Phase A-E), but a quantitative analysis of what can reliably be computed: trading ranges, "effort vs. result", volume within the range, and Spring/Upthrust detection.
The stock is in a clear uptrend with no defined trading range in the period examined.
Medium confidence
Evidence Behind This Read
- 🟢Rising price trend — A 3.0% change over the last 50 days, with no defined trading range.
- 🟢Bar with selling-climax characteristics — On 2026-07-29: volume 2.0x the average and a spread 2.0x wider, with a close suggesting counter-absorption.
The Wyckoff Method, developed by Richard Wyckoff in the early 20th century, reads the balance of supply and demand through price and volume, based on the premise that large investors ("smart money") quietly accumulate shares before rallies and quietly distribute them before declines. The read here is based solely on real price and volume data — full, precise identification of classic Wyckoff patterns (such as Phases A-E) requires human chart-reading experience and judgment, so this is an approximate algorithmic read, not a substitute for professional analysis. This should not be considered investment advice.
🎯 Trade Planning (M.A.E.E Framework)
Based on a mechanical trading method: market structure → value zone → ATR-based exit point. Not investment advice — a calculation tool only.
1️⃣ Market Structure
🟡 Range
The price is oscillating around the 200-day average with no clear direction — the method recommends great caution here (buying at the bottom of the range / selling at the top) or avoiding trading altogether.
2️⃣ Value Zone
🟡 Price far from value zone
The price is currently far from the 50-day average — the method recommends waiting for a "pullback" before entering, rather than chasing prices.
💰 Financial Health
Profitability
Gross Margin
30.6%
Operating Margin
10.5%
Net Margin
4.3%
EBITDA Margin
10.5%
Efficiency
ROE
-40.6%
ROA
5.3%
ROIC
—
EPS
$2.52
Balance Sheet
Cash
$36.60M
Total Debt
$2.11B
Current Ratio
1.27
Debt/Equity
-5.89
Conclusions
- 🟡Gross margin — Gross margin: 30.6% — reasonable
- 🟡Operating margin — Operating margin: 10.5% — reasonable
- 🔴Net margin — Net margin: 4.3% — weak
- 🔴Return on equity (ROE) — Return on equity (ROE): -40.6% (negative)
- 🟡Return on assets (ROA) — Return on assets (ROA): 5.3% — reasonable
- 🟡Current ratio (liquidity) — Current ratio: 1.27
- 🟢Debt-to-equity — Debt/equity: -5.89
- 🟡Interest coverage — Interest coverage: 2.8x
🚀 Growth
Revenue
Earnings per Share (EPS)
Net Income
Free Cash Flow (FCF)
Conclusions
- 🔴Revenue growth (last year) — Revenue growth (last year): -3.9%
- 🟢Earnings per share (EPS) growth — Earnings per share (EPS) growth: 504.9%
- 🔴Free cash flow growth — Free cash flow growth: -53.1%
- 🟢Net income growth — Net income growth: 516.0%
💵 Dividends
Total dividend per share paid each year, over the last 5 years.
Annual Dividend per Share
| Ex-Dividend Date | Amount per Share |
|---|---|
| 22.5.2026 | $0.660 |
| 20.2.2026 | $0.660 |
| 21.11.2025 | $0.660 |
| 22.8.2025 | $0.660 |
| 23.5.2025 | $0.660 |
| 21.2.2025 | $0.660 |
| 22.11.2024 | $0.660 |
| 23.8.2024 | $0.660 |
| 23.5.2024 | $0.660 |
| 22.2.2024 | $0.660 |
| 24.11.2023 | $0.660 |
| 24.8.2023 | $0.660 |
💎 Fair Value (Valuation)
Current Price
$62.06
Estimated Fair Value (DCF)
$27.19
Gap
-56.2%
🔴 Appears expensive relative to estimated value
Show all model (DCF) assumptions →
Year 1 Growth Rate
-4.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)
9.0%
Terminal Growth Rate
2.5%
Projection Years
5
| Year | Growth Rate | Projected FCF | Present Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | -4.5% | $261.67M | $240.07M |
| 2 | -2.7% | $254.55M | $214.25M |
| 3 | -1.0% | $252.05M | $194.63M |
| 4 | 0.8% | $253.96M | $179.92M |
| 5 | 2.5% | $260.31M | $169.19M |
Base FCF (last actual year)
$273.90M
Terminal Value
$4.10B
Present Value of Terminal Value
$2.67B
Enterprise Value
$3.67B
Net Debt
$2.07B
Equity Value
$1.60B
*The DCF model is an estimate based on assumptions — not a guaranteed forecast. You can change the assumptions to examine different scenarios.
Book Value per Share
-$6.09
Tangible Book Value per Share (Tangible NAV)
-$17.09
Conclusions
- 🔴DCF Fair Value — Estimated fair value: $27.19 vs. price $62.06 (-56.2%)
- 🟡Tangible Net Asset Value (NAV) — NAV per share: -$17.09
- 🟡P/E — P/E: 25.5
🕴️ Insider Trading
Real transactions by officers and insiders, as reported to the SEC on Form 4 — 0 purchases and 1 sales out of the last 25 filings.
| Name | Transaction Type | Date | Shares | Change | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnson Stephen L | Open Market Sale | 30.7.2026 | 30,179 | -1,171 | $68.32 |
| Scheiwer Mark J | Grant/Award from Employer | 27.7.2026 | 1,409 | +4 | $69.55 |
| Johnson Stephen L | Grant/Award from Employer | 1.7.2026 | 31,350 | +105 | $68.57 |
| Sandoval Brian E | Grant/Award from Employer | 1.7.2026 | 19,615 | +420 | $68.57 |
| Baxter Nathan Eric | Grant/Award from Employer | 1.7.2026 | 90,377 | +29,168 | — |
| Miaritis Nick | Grant/Award from Employer | 1.7.2026 | 22,274 | +16,043 | — |
| Hagedorn Christopher | Other Transaction | 30.6.2026 | 57,548 | +4 | $52.42 |
| Baxter Nathan Eric | Other Transaction | 30.6.2026 | 61,209 | +95 | $52.42 |
| Scheiwer Mark J | Other Transaction | 30.6.2026 | 15,384 | +3 | $52.42 |
| HAGEDORN JAMES | Grant/Award from Employer | 5.6.2026 | 244,178 | +2,771 | $57.13 |
| HAGEDORN KATHERINE LITTLEFIELD | Grant/Award from Employer | 5.6.2026 | 71 | +38 | — |
| Evans David C | Grant/Award from Employer | 5.6.2026 | 673 | +121 | — |
| Hanft Adam | Grant/Award from Employer | 5.6.2026 | 673 | +121 | — |
| Johnson Stephen L | Grant/Award from Employer | 5.6.2026 | 908 | +158 | — |
| Shumlin Peter E | Grant/Award from Employer | 5.6.2026 | 1,018 | +173 | — |
| Sandoval Brian E | Grant/Award from Employer | 5.6.2026 | 964 | +177 | — |
| Scheiwer Mark J | Grant/Award from Employer | 5.6.2026 | 1,394 | +16 | $57.13 |
| Scheiwer Mark J | Grant/Award from Employer | 5.6.2026 | 453 | +48 | — |
| Miller Austin Scott | Grant/Award from Employer | 5.6.2026 | 136 | +55 | — |
| Aviles Edith | Grant/Award from Employer | 5.6.2026 | 673 | +121 | — |
| Kingdon Mark D | Grant/Award from Employer | 5.6.2026 | 673 | +121 | — |
| Candelino Roberto | Grant/Award from Employer | 5.6.2026 | 297 | +79 | — |
| Miaritis Nick | Grant/Award from Employer | 5.6.2026 | 268 | +74 | — |
| HAGEDORN JAMES | Other Transaction | 29.5.2026 | 88,670 | +40 | $50.53 |
| Hagedorn Christopher | Other Transaction | 29.5.2026 | 57,544 | +4 | $50.53 |
📉 Short Interest
Official FINRA data — the number of shares open in short positions, plus daily short-sale activity.
Monthly Trend — Open Short Interest
5,212,194 shares short as of 2026-07-15 · vs. 5,683,187 on 2026-06-30
Official biweekly report (FINRA Rule 4560) — no real higher-frequency data exists for this metric.
Weekly Trend — Daily Short-Sale Activity
60.6% of trading volume this week was short selling, vs. 74.5% the prior week
Based on daily short-sale volume (Reg SHO) — a different metric from the open short interest above: this is daily trading volume, not an open position, so it updates weekly rather than biweekly.
📰 News & Sentiment
Sentiment based on basic keywords (not AI) — 11 positive, 7 neutral, 2 negative out of the last 20 articles.
SeekingAlpha · 5.8.2026
Yahoo · 4.8.2026
Yahoo · 4.8.2026
Yahoo · 4.8.2026
Yahoo · 4.8.2026
Benzinga · 3.8.2026
SeekingAlpha · 31.7.2026
Benzinga · 30.7.2026
ChartMill · 30.7.2026
Yahoo · 30.7.2026
Yahoo · 30.7.2026
Benzinga · 30.7.2026
Yahoo · 29.7.2026
Yahoo · 29.7.2026
Yahoo · 29.7.2026
Yahoo · 29.7.2026
Yahoo · 29.7.2026
SeekingAlpha · 29.7.2026
ChartMill · 29.7.2026
SeekingAlpha · 29.7.2026