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AA

Alcoa Corporation Common Stock

Industrials · ·

$47.48

$0.21 (-0.4%)

Market Cap

$12.53B

Day Range

$46.83 - $48.40

52-Week Range

$28.92 - $84.38

Beta

Next Earnings

20.10.2026

AA is a stock from the Industrials sectorManufacturing, aerospace, defense, and infrastructure — closely tied to capital-investment cycles and economic growth.

🏢 Similar Stocks in the Same Sector

+61.4% (1Y)

Investor Score
51/ 100C-
🟡 Moderate

This score and all analysis on this page are for informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. Read the full disclaimer

📈36FTechnical
💰61C+Fundamental
🚀76B+Growth
💎43DValuation
📰44DNews
🏦55CQuality
⚠️48D+Risk

Weighted: Technical 25% · Fundamental 20% · Growth 15% · Valuation 15% · News 10% · Quality 10% · Risk 5%

🔍 Cross-Check

Overall Score

🟡 Mixed

Technical Trend

🔴 Bearish

Insiders

🔴 Bearish

✅ Why is the score relatively high?

  • 🟢 Earnings per share (EPS) growth: 1580.8%
  • 🟢 Free cash flow growth: 1250.0%
  • 🟢 Net income growth: 1828.3%
  • 🟢 Debt/equity: 0.40
  • 🟢 MACD histogram is positive — rising momentum

⚠️ What's concerning?

  • 🔴 Estimated fair value: $30.47 vs. price $47.48 (-35.8%)
  • 🔴 ATR: 4.5% of price
  • 🔴 Price is below the 50-day average
  • 🔴 Price is below the 200-day average
  • 🔴 -29.1% over the last 3 months relative to the index

🚦 Quality & Risk Checks

🟢 Conservative leverage🔴 Daily volatility (ATR)🟢 Leverage risk🟡 Liquidity risk

📰 News Trend

Based on real financial news (Finnhub)
🔴 Negative

Everyone's writing about Alcoa Corporation Common Stock. News trend score: 44. Reason: 4 of the last 20 articles are negative, versus 3 positive.

News trend analysis is based on article sentiment only, and is not investment advice or financial counsel. Read the full disclaimer

📈 Technical Analysis

Based on the last 251 trading days, calculated from real price data. Click an indicator for details and a chart.

🔴 Most indicators support a downtrend (4 bullish · 8 bearish · 0 neutral)

Conclusions

  • 🔴Price vs. SMA 50Price is below the 50-day average
  • 🔴Price vs. SMA 200Price is below the 200-day average
  • 🟢MACDMACD histogram is positive — rising momentum
  • 🔴RSIRSI 47.4 — weak/negative bias
  • 🔴Stochastic%K 87.3 — overbought
  • 🔴ADX (trend strength)ADX 35.6 — strong trend
  • 🔴Volume trendVolume is falling despite the price advance — possible weakening
  • 🔴Relative strength vs. S&P 500-29.1% over the last 3 months relative to the index
  • 🟢Bollinger BandsPrice is in the upper third of the Bollinger Bands (72%B) — strong momentum (risk of a pullback)
  • 🟢ROC (rate of change)ROC 12 days: 9.7%
  • 🟢Parabolic SARPrice is above the SAR point — uptrend
  • 🔴CMF (money flow)CMF 20 days: -0.09

Wyckoff Method Analysis

A market-structure read based purely on real price and volume data — not full classic Wyckoff schematic identification (Phase A-E), but a quantitative analysis of what can reliably be computed: trading ranges, "effort vs. result", volume within the range, and Spring/Upthrust detection.

Markdown

The stock is in a clear downtrend with no defined trading range in the period examined.

Medium confidence

Evidence Behind This Read

  • 🔴Falling price trendA -36.0% change over the last 50 days, with no defined trading range.

The Wyckoff Method, developed by Richard Wyckoff in the early 20th century, reads the balance of supply and demand through price and volume, based on the premise that large investors ("smart money") quietly accumulate shares before rallies and quietly distribute them before declines. The read here is based solely on real price and volume data — full, precise identification of classic Wyckoff patterns (such as Phases A-E) requires human chart-reading experience and judgment, so this is an approximate algorithmic read, not a substitute for professional analysis. This should not be considered investment advice.

🎯 Trade Planning (M.A.E.E Framework)

Based on a mechanical trading method: market structure → value zone → ATR-based exit point. Not investment advice — a calculation tool only.

1️⃣ Market Structure

🔴 Downtrend

The price is below the 200-day average — an environment that mainly favors looking for selling (Short) opportunities, not buying.

2️⃣ Value Zone

🟡 Price far from value zone

The price is currently far from the 50-day average — the method recommends waiting for a "pullback" before entering, rather than chasing prices.

3️⃣ Suggested Exit Point (ATR-based)

Method formula: Stop-loss = resistance plusone ATR margin — this way the stop adapts to the stock's actual volatility, rather than an arbitrary number.

Entry

$47.69

Stop-Loss

$86.52

Risk per Share

$38.83

Direction

Short

Profit Targets by Risk/Reward Ratio (R)

1:2 R

-$29.97

1:3 R

-$68.80

1:5 R

-$146.46

💰 Position Size Calculator

A core principle of the method: never risk a fixed dollar amount — risk a fixed percentage of equity, and let the position size vary according to the risk per share.

Suggested Position Size

2 sh.

💰 Financial Health

Profitability

Gross Margin

Operating Margin

Net Margin

9.0%

EBITDA Margin

Efficiency

ROE

18.9%

ROA

7.2%

ROIC

EPS

$4.40

Balance Sheet

Cash

$1.60B

Total Debt

$2.44B

Current Ratio

1.44

Debt/Equity

0.40

Conclusions

  • 🟡Net marginNet margin: 9.0% — reasonable
  • 🟡Return on equity (ROE)Return on equity (ROE): 18.9% — reasonable
  • 🟡Return on assets (ROA)Return on assets (ROA): 7.2% — reasonable
  • 🟡Current ratio (liquidity)Current ratio: 1.44
  • 🟢Debt-to-equityDebt/equity: 0.40

🚀 Growth

Revenue

Earnings per Share (EPS)

Net Income

Free Cash Flow (FCF)

Conclusions

  • 🟡Revenue growth (last year)Revenue growth (last year): 7.9%
  • 🟢Earnings per share (EPS) growthEarnings per share (EPS) growth: 1580.8%
  • 🟢Free cash flow growthFree cash flow growth: 1250.0%
  • 🟢Net income growthNet income growth: 1828.3%

💵 Dividends

Total dividend per share paid each year, over the last 5 years.

Annual Dividend per Share

Ex-Dividend DateAmount per Share
19.5.2026$0.100
10.3.2026$0.100
4.11.2025$0.100
12.8.2025$0.100
20.5.2025$0.100
4.3.2025$0.100
29.10.2024$0.100
12.8.2024$0.100
20.5.2024$0.100
4.3.2024$0.100
30.10.2023$0.100
7.8.2023$0.100

💎 Fair Value (Valuation)

Current Price

$47.48

Estimated Fair Value (DCF)

$30.47

Gap

-35.8%

🔴 Appears expensive relative to estimated value

Show all model (DCF) assumptions →

Year 1 Growth Rate

1.8%

Discount Rate (WACC)

9.0%

Terminal Growth Rate

2.5%

Projection Years

5

YearGrowth RateProjected FCFPresent Value
11.8%$577.11M$529.46M
22.0%$588.43M$495.27M
32.1%$601.03M$464.10M
42.3%$614.97M$435.66M
52.5%$630.35M$409.68M

Base FCF (last actual year)

$567.00M

Terminal Value

$9.94B

Present Value of Terminal Value

$6.46B

Enterprise Value

$8.79B

Net Debt

$842.00M

Equity Value

$7.95B

*The DCF model is an estimate based on assumptions — not a guaranteed forecast. You can change the assumptions to examine different scenarios.

Book Value per Share

$23.44

Tangible Book Value per Share (Tangible NAV)

$23.31

Conclusions

  • 🔴DCF Fair ValueEstimated fair value: $30.47 vs. price $47.48 (-35.8%)
  • 🟡Tangible Net Asset Value (NAV)NAV per share: $23.31
  • 🟢P/EP/E: 10.9

🕴️ Insider Trading

Real transactions by officers and insiders, as reported to the SEC on Form 4 — 0 purchases and 1 sales out of the last 25 filings.

NameTransaction TypeDateSharesChangePrice
Reed Matthew TOpen Market Sale22.7.202671,770-4,600$46.82
HUGHES JAMES ALTONGrant/Award from Employer8.5.202653,630+2,532
Citrino Mary AnneGrant/Award from Employer8.5.202656,665+2,532
Roberts Carol LGrant/Award from Employer8.5.202653,630+2,532
de Oliveira Marques RobertoGrant/Award from Employer8.5.202615,800+2,532
Fiore PasqualeGrant/Award from Employer8.5.202640,761+2,532
Bevan John AGrant/Award from Employer8.5.202612,199+2,532
Field AlistairGrant/Award from Employer8.5.202612,199+2,532
Galovich BrianGrant/Award from Employer8.5.20262,532+2,532
Gorman Thomas JosephGrant/Award from Employer8.5.202623,327+2,532
Roberts Jackson PrinceGrant/Award from Employer8.5.202619,672+2,532
Olson Emily M.Grant/Award from Employer15.4.20268,760+8,760
Oplinger William FGrant/Award from Employer23.2.2026337,678+8,740
Oplinger William FTax Withholding in Shares23.2.2026333,877-3,801$59.81
Beerman Molly S.Grant/Award from Employer23.2.2026122,501+6,990
Beerman Molly S.Tax Withholding in Shares23.2.2026119,461-3,040$59.81
Bacchi RenatoGrant/Award from Employer23.2.202677,743+4,858
Bacchi RenatoTax Withholding in Shares23.2.202675,630-2,113$59.81
Jones Tammi AGrant/Award from Employer23.2.202657,470+3,884
Jones Tammi ATax Withholding in Shares23.2.202655,411-2,059$59.81
Jones Tammi AGrant/Award from Employer23.2.202655,488+77$59.81
Jones Tammi ATax Withholding in Shares23.2.202655,447-41$59.81
Jones Tammi AGrant/Award from Employer23.2.202612,714+1,463
Jones Tammi ATax Withholding in Shares23.2.202611,952-762$59.81
Jones Tammi AGrant/Award from Employer23.2.202611,981+29$59.81

📉 Short Interest

Official FINRA data — the number of shares open in short positions, plus daily short-sale activity.

Monthly Trend — Open Short Interest

+6.6%

8,981,785 shares short as of 2026-07-15 · vs. 8,425,769 on 2026-06-30

Official biweekly report (FINRA Rule 4560) — no real higher-frequency data exists for this metric.

Weekly Trend — Daily Short-Sale Activity

+9.1%

51.4% of trading volume this week was short selling, vs. 47.1% the prior week

Based on daily short-sale volume (Reg SHO) — a different metric from the open short interest above: this is daily trading volume, not an open position, so it updates weekly rather than biweekly.

📰 News & Sentiment

Sentiment based on basic keywords (not AI) — 3 positive, 13 neutral, 4 negative out of the last 20 articles.