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PEGA

Pegasystems Inc. Common Stock

Technology · ·

$31.67

$0.14 (-0.4%)

Market Cap

$5.21B

Day Range

$30.55 - $31.79

52-Week Range

$25.10 - $68.10

Beta

Next Earnings

19.10.2026

PEGA is a stock from the Technology sectorSoftware, hardware, chip, and computing-services companies — revenue tied to the pace of innovation and upgrade cycles.

🏢 Similar Stocks in the Same Sector

-44.8% (1Y)

Investor Score
69/ 100B-
🟡 Moderate

This score and all analysis on this page are for informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. Read the full disclaimer

📈63C+Technical
💰72BFundamental
🚀79B+Growth
💎67B-Valuation
📰86ANews
🏦58CQuality
⚠️42DRisk

Weighted: Technical 25% · Fundamental 20% · Growth 15% · Valuation 15% · News 10% · Quality 10% · Risk 5%

🔍 Cross-Check

Overall Score

🟡 Mixed

Technical Trend

🟢 Bullish

Insiders

🔴 Bearish

✅ Why is the score relatively high?

  • 🟢 Estimated fair value: $49.48 vs. price $31.67 (+56.2%)
  • 🟢 Earnings per share (EPS) growth: 287.3%
  • 🟢 Free cash flow growth: 45.1%
  • 🟢 Net income growth: 296.7%
  • 🟢 Operating margin is stable or improving over time

⚠️ What's concerning?

  • 🔴 ATR: 5.2% of price
  • 🔴 Price is below the 200-day average
  • 🔴 -18.6% over the last 3 months relative to the index
  • 🔴 %K 82.8 — overbought
  • 🔴 Volume is falling despite the price advance — possible weakening

🚦 Quality & Risk Checks

🟢 Operating margin stability🔴 Daily volatility (ATR)🟡 Liquidity risk

📰 News Trend

Based on real financial news (Finnhub)
🟢 Positive

Everyone's writing about Pegasystems Inc. Common Stock. News trend score: 86. Reason: 8 of the last 20 articles are positive, versus 2 negative.

News trend analysis is based on article sentiment only, and is not investment advice or financial counsel. Read the full disclaimer

📈 Technical Analysis

Based on the last 251 trading days, calculated from real price data. Click an indicator for details and a chart.

🟢 Most indicators support an uptrend (7 bullish · 4 bearish · 1 neutral)

Conclusions

  • 🟢Price vs. SMA 50Price is above the 50-day average
  • 🔴Price vs. SMA 200Price is below the 200-day average
  • 🟢MACDMACD histogram is positive — rising momentum
  • 🟢RSIRSI 54.6 — healthy positive momentum
  • 🔴Stochastic%K 82.8 — overbought
  • 🟡ADX (trend strength)ADX 13.6 — weak trend/choppy
  • 🔴Volume trendVolume is falling despite the price advance — possible weakening
  • 🔴Relative strength vs. S&P 500-18.6% over the last 3 months relative to the index
  • 🟢Bollinger BandsPrice is in the upper third of the Bollinger Bands (68%B) — strong momentum (risk of a pullback)
  • 🟢ROC (rate of change)ROC 12 days: 0.4%
  • 🟢Parabolic SARPrice is above the SAR point — uptrend
  • 🟢CMF (money flow)CMF 20 days: 0.13

Wyckoff Method Analysis

A market-structure read based purely on real price and volume data — not full classic Wyckoff schematic identification (Phase A-E), but a quantitative analysis of what can reliably be computed: trading ranges, "effort vs. result", volume within the range, and Spring/Upthrust detection.

Markdown

The stock is in a clear downtrend with no defined trading range in the period examined.

Low confidence

Evidence Behind This Read

  • 🔴Falling price trendA -7.3% change over the last 50 days, with no defined trading range.
  • 🔴Divergence between price and cumulative money flow (A/D Line)Price and the cumulative Accumulation/Distribution Line are moving in opposite directions — a classic Wyckoff sign that the move isn't backed by real money, and may be less stable than it looks.
  • 🔴Bar with buying-climax characteristicsOn 2026-07-22: volume 5.3x the average and a spread 1.7x wider, with a close suggesting counter-absorption.

The Wyckoff Method, developed by Richard Wyckoff in the early 20th century, reads the balance of supply and demand through price and volume, based on the premise that large investors ("smart money") quietly accumulate shares before rallies and quietly distribute them before declines. The read here is based solely on real price and volume data — full, precise identification of classic Wyckoff patterns (such as Phases A-E) requires human chart-reading experience and judgment, so this is an approximate algorithmic read, not a substitute for professional analysis. This should not be considered investment advice.

🎯 Trade Planning (M.A.E.E Framework)

Based on a mechanical trading method: market structure → value zone → ATR-based exit point. Not investment advice — a calculation tool only.

1️⃣ Market Structure

🔴 Downtrend

The price is below the 200-day average — an environment that mainly favors looking for selling (Short) opportunities, not buying.

2️⃣ Value Zone

🟢 Price in value zone

The price is close to the 50-day moving average — per the method, this is a reasonable area to look for an entry, rather than chasing the price far from it.

3️⃣ Suggested Exit Point (ATR-based)

Method formula: Stop-loss = resistance plusone ATR margin — this way the stop adapts to the stock's actual volatility, rather than an arbitrary number.

Entry

$31.81

Stop-Loss

$39.80

Risk per Share

$7.99

Direction

Short

Profit Targets by Risk/Reward Ratio (R)

1:2 R

$15.82

1:3 R

$7.83

1:5 R

-$8.16

💰 Position Size Calculator

A core principle of the method: never risk a fixed dollar amount — risk a fixed percentage of equity, and let the position size vary according to the risk per share.

Suggested Position Size

12 sh.

💰 Financial Health

Profitability

Gross Margin

75.9%

Operating Margin

15.1%

Net Margin

22.5%

EBITDA Margin

15.9%

Efficiency

ROE

50.0%

ROA

24.1%

ROIC

EPS

$2.30

Balance Sheet

Cash

$212.45M

Total Debt

Current Ratio

1.33

Debt/Equity

Conclusions

  • 🟢Gross marginGross margin: 75.9% — strong
  • 🟡Operating marginOperating margin: 15.1% — reasonable
  • 🟢Net marginNet margin: 22.5% — strong
  • 🟢Return on equity (ROE)Return on equity (ROE): 50.0% — strong
  • 🟢Return on assets (ROA)Return on assets (ROA): 24.1% — strong
  • 🟡Current ratio (liquidity)Current ratio: 1.33

🚀 Growth

Revenue

Earnings per Share (EPS)

Net Income

Free Cash Flow (FCF)

Conclusions

  • 🟢Revenue growth (last year)Revenue growth (last year): 16.6%
  • 🟢Earnings per share (EPS) growthEarnings per share (EPS) growth: 287.3%
  • 🟢Free cash flow growthFree cash flow growth: 45.1%
  • 🟢Net income growthNet income growth: 296.7%

💵 Dividends

Total dividend per share paid each year, over the last 5 years.

Annual Dividend per Share

Ex-Dividend DateAmount per Share
1.7.2026$0.030
1.4.2026$0.030
2.1.2026$0.030
1.10.2025$0.030
1.7.2025$0.030
1.4.2025$0.015
2.1.2025$0.015
1.10.2024$0.015
1.7.2024$0.015
28.3.2024$0.015
29.12.2023$0.015
29.9.2023$0.015

💎 Fair Value (Valuation)

Current Price

$31.67

Estimated Fair Value (DCF)

$49.48

Gap

+56.2%

🟢 Appears cheap relative to estimated value

Show all model (DCF) assumptions →

Year 1 Growth Rate

9.9%

Discount Rate (WACC)

9.0%

Terminal Growth Rate

2.5%

Projection Years

5

YearGrowth RateProjected FCFPresent Value
19.9%$539.50M$494.96M
28.1%$583.10M$490.78M
36.2%$619.37M$478.27M
44.4%$646.38M$457.91M
52.5%$662.54M$430.60M

Base FCF (last actual year)

$490.72M

Terminal Value

$10.45B

Present Value of Terminal Value

$6.79B

Enterprise Value

$9.14B

Net Debt

$0

Equity Value

$9.14B

*The DCF model is an estimate based on assumptions — not a guaranteed forecast. You can change the assumptions to examine different scenarios.

Book Value per Share

$4.26

Tangible Book Value per Share (Tangible NAV)

$3.81

Conclusions

  • 🟢DCF Fair ValueEstimated fair value: $49.48 vs. price $31.67 (+56.2%)
  • 🟡Tangible Net Asset Value (NAV)NAV per share: $3.81
  • 🟢P/EP/E: 14.9

🕴️ Insider Trading

Real transactions by officers and insiders, as reported to the SEC on Form 4 — 0 purchases and 2 sales out of the last 25 filings.

NameTransaction TypeDateSharesChangePrice
KOUNINIS EFSTATHIOS AOpen Market Sale16.6.20262,476-650$32.31
KOUNINIS EFSTATHIOS AOpen Market Sale16.6.20262,376-100$32.32
KOUNINIS EFSTATHIOS AExercise of Derivative Securities7.6.20263,207+332
KOUNINIS EFSTATHIOS ATax Withholding in Shares7.6.20263,126-81$34.71
KOUNINIS EFSTATHIOS AExercise of Derivative Securities7.6.2026998-332
Trefler LeonExercise of Derivative Securities7.6.2026124,057+2,658
Trefler LeonTax Withholding in Shares7.6.2026123,011-1,046$34.71
Trefler LeonExercise of Derivative Securities7.6.20267,974-2,658
STILLWELL KENNETHExercise of Derivative Securities7.6.2026119,807+5,222
STILLWELL KENNETHTax Withholding in Shares7.6.2026117,752-2,055$34.71
STILLWELL KENNETHExercise of Derivative Securities7.6.202615,662-5,222
Akgonul Rifat KerimExercise of Derivative Securities7.6.2026111,925+2,278
Akgonul Rifat KerimTax Withholding in Shares7.6.2026110,823-1,102$34.71
Akgonul Rifat KerimExercise of Derivative Securities7.6.20266,836-2,278
Higgins John GerardExercise of Derivative Securities7.6.202657,735+2,278
Higgins John GerardTax Withholding in Shares7.6.202656,463-1,272$34.71
Higgins John GerardExercise of Derivative Securities7.6.20266,836-2,278
KOUNINIS EFSTATHIOS AExercise of Derivative Securities5.6.20262,983+440
KOUNINIS EFSTATHIOS ATax Withholding in Shares5.6.20262,875-108$35.44
KOUNINIS EFSTATHIOS AExercise of Derivative Securities5.6.20263,082-440
Trefler LeonExercise of Derivative Securities5.6.2026122,265+2,200
Trefler LeonTax Withholding in Shares5.6.2026121,399-866$35.44
Trefler LeonExercise of Derivative Securities5.6.202615,408-2,200
STILLWELL KENNETHExercise of Derivative Securities5.6.2026116,318+4,402
STILLWELL KENNETHTax Withholding in Shares5.6.2026114,585-1,733$35.44

📉 Short Interest

Official FINRA data — the number of shares open in short positions, plus daily short-sale activity.

Monthly Trend — Open Short Interest

-1.4%

15,814,935 shares short as of 2026-07-15 · vs. 16,038,627 on 2026-06-30

Official biweekly report (FINRA Rule 4560) — no real higher-frequency data exists for this metric.

Weekly Trend — Daily Short-Sale Activity

+22.4%

54.5% of trading volume this week was short selling, vs. 44.5% the prior week

Based on daily short-sale volume (Reg SHO) — a different metric from the open short interest above: this is daily trading volume, not an open position, so it updates weekly rather than biweekly.

📰 News & Sentiment

Sentiment based on basic keywords (not AI) — 8 positive, 10 neutral, 2 negative out of the last 20 articles.