FOR
Forestar Group Inc.· · NYSE
$29.21
▼ $0.37 (-1.3%)
Market Cap
$1.49B
Day Range
$28.81 - $29.46
52-Week Range
$22.81 - $32.06
Beta
—
Next Earnings
26.10.2026
+13.4% (1Y)
This score and all analysis on this page are for informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. Read the full disclaimer
Weighted: Technical 25% · Fundamental 20% · Growth 15% · Valuation 15% · News 10% · Quality 10% · Risk 5%
🔍 Cross-Check
Overall Score
🟡 Mixed
Technical Trend
🟢 Bullish
Insiders
🔴 Bearish
✅ Why is the score relatively high?
- 🟢 Debt/equity: 0.45
- 🟢 Price is above the 50-day average
- 🟢 Price is above the 200-day average
- 🟢 MACD histogram is positive — rising momentum
- 🟢 RSI 53.4 — healthy positive momentum
⚠️ What's concerning?
- 🔴 Estimated fair value: -$71.11 vs. price $29.21 (-343.4%)
- 🔴 Earnings per share (EPS) growth: -17.8%
- 🔴 Free cash flow growth: -24.5%
- 🔴 Net income growth: -17.5%
- 🔴 Volume is falling despite the price advance — possible weakening
🚦 Quality & Risk Checks
📈 Technical Analysis
Based on the last 251 trading days, calculated from real price data. Click an indicator for details and a chart.
🟢 Most indicators support an uptrend (7 bullish · 1 bearish · 3 neutral)
Conclusions
- 🟢Price vs. SMA 50 — Price is above the 50-day average
- 🟢Price vs. SMA 200 — Price is above the 200-day average
- 🟢MACD — MACD histogram is positive — rising momentum
- 🟢RSI — RSI 53.4 — healthy positive momentum
- 🟡Stochastic — %K 68.4 — neutral range
- 🟡ADX (trend strength) — ADX 18.9 — weak trend/choppy
- 🔴Volume trend — Volume is falling despite the price advance — possible weakening
- 🟢Relative strength vs. S&P 500 — +6.1% over the last 3 months relative to the index
- 🟢ROC (rate of change) — ROC 12 days: 4.9%
- 🟢Parabolic SAR — Price is above the SAR point — uptrend
- 🟡CMF (money flow) — CMF 20 days: 0.03
Wyckoff Method Analysis
A market-structure read based purely on real price and volume data — not full classic Wyckoff schematic identification (Phase A-E), but a quantitative analysis of what can reliably be computed: trading ranges, "effort vs. result", volume within the range, and Spring/Upthrust detection.
The stock is in a clear uptrend with no defined trading range in the period examined.
Low confidence
Evidence Behind This Read
- 🟢Rising price trend — A 12.2% change over the last 50 days, with no defined trading range.
- 🔴Divergence between price and cumulative money flow (A/D Line) — Price and the cumulative Accumulation/Distribution Line are moving in opposite directions — a classic Wyckoff sign that the move isn't backed by real money, and may be less stable than it looks.
The Wyckoff Method, developed by Richard Wyckoff in the early 20th century, reads the balance of supply and demand through price and volume, based on the premise that large investors ("smart money") quietly accumulate shares before rallies and quietly distribute them before declines. The read here is based solely on real price and volume data — full, precise identification of classic Wyckoff patterns (such as Phases A-E) requires human chart-reading experience and judgment, so this is an approximate algorithmic read, not a substitute for professional analysis. This should not be considered investment advice.
🎯 Trade Planning (M.A.E.E Framework)
Based on a mechanical trading method: market structure → value zone → ATR-based exit point. Not investment advice — a calculation tool only.
1️⃣ Market Structure
🟢 Uptrend
The price is above the 200-day average — per the market-structure method, this environment mainly favors looking for buying (Long) opportunities.
2️⃣ Value Zone
🟢 Price in value zone
The price is close to the 50-day moving average — per the method, this is a reasonable area to look for an entry, rather than chasing the price far from it.
3️⃣ Suggested Exit Point (ATR-based)
Method formula: Stop-loss = support minusone ATR margin — this way the stop adapts to the stock's actual volatility, rather than an arbitrary number.
Entry
$29.58
Stop-Loss
$24.93
Risk per Share
$4.65
Direction
Long
Profit Targets by Risk/Reward Ratio (R)
1:2 R
$38.88
1:3 R
$43.53
1:5 R
$52.83
💰 Position Size Calculator
A core principle of the method: never risk a fixed dollar amount — risk a fixed percentage of equity, and let the position size vary according to the risk per share.
Suggested Position Size
21 sh.
💰 Financial Health
Profitability
Gross Margin
21.9%
Operating Margin
—
Net Margin
10.1%
EBITDA Margin
—
Efficiency
ROE
9.5%
ROA
5.4%
ROIC
—
EPS
$3.30
Balance Sheet
Cash
$379.20M
Total Debt
$802.70M
Current Ratio
—
Debt/Equity
0.45
Conclusions
- 🟡Gross margin — Gross margin: 21.9% — reasonable
- 🟡Net margin — Net margin: 10.1% — reasonable
- 🔴Return on equity (ROE) — Return on equity (ROE): 9.5% — weak
- 🟡Return on assets (ROA) — Return on assets (ROA): 5.4% — reasonable
- 🟢Debt-to-equity — Debt/equity: 0.45
🚀 Growth
Revenue
Earnings per Share (EPS)
Net Income
Free Cash Flow (FCF)
Conclusions
- 🟢Revenue growth (last year) — Revenue growth (last year): 10.1%
- 🔴Earnings per share (EPS) growth — Earnings per share (EPS) growth: -17.8%
- 🔴Free cash flow growth — Free cash flow growth: -24.5%
- 🔴Net income growth — Net income growth: -17.5%
💎 Fair Value (Valuation)
Current Price
$29.21
Estimated Fair Value (DCF)
-$71.11
Gap
-343.4%
🔴 Appears expensive relative to estimated value
Show all model (DCF) assumptions →
Year 1 Growth Rate
3.3%
Discount Rate (WACC)
9.0%
Terminal Growth Rate
2.5%
Projection Years
5
| Year | Growth Rate | Projected FCF | Present Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3.3% | $-206.41M | $-189.37M |
| 2 | 3.1% | $-212.74M | $-179.06M |
| 3 | 2.9% | $-218.87M | $-169.01M |
| 4 | 2.7% | $-224.75M | $-159.22M |
| 5 | 2.5% | $-230.37M | $-149.73M |
Base FCF (last actual year)
$-199.90M
Terminal Value
$-3.63B
Present Value of Terminal Value
$-2.36B
Enterprise Value
$-3.21B
Net Debt
$423.50M
Equity Value
$-3.63B
*The DCF model is an estimate based on assumptions — not a guaranteed forecast. You can change the assumptions to examine different scenarios.
Book Value per Share
$34.62
Tangible Book Value per Share (Tangible NAV)
$34.62
Conclusions
- 🔴DCF Fair Value — Estimated fair value: -$71.11 vs. price $29.21 (-343.4%)
- 🟢Tangible Net Asset Value (NAV) — NAV per share: $34.62
- 🟢P/E — P/E: 9.0
🕴️ Insider Trading
Real transactions by officers and insiders, as reported to the SEC on Form 4 — 0 purchases and 1 sales out of the last 25 filings.
| Name | Transaction Type | Date | Shares | Change | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parmer Elizabeth | Open Market Sale | 2.6.2026 | 3,713 | -2,535 | $27.44 |
| Walker Mark Stephen | Exercise of Derivative Securities | 31.3.2026 | 28,101 | +2,815 | — |
| Walker Mark Stephen | Tax Withholding in Shares | 31.3.2026 | 26,847 | -1,254 | $24.44 |
| Walker Mark Stephen | Exercise of Derivative Securities | 31.3.2026 | 2,815 | -2,815 | — |
| Allen James Douglas | Exercise of Derivative Securities | 31.3.2026 | 42,126 | +4,505 | — |
| Allen James Douglas | Tax Withholding in Shares | 31.3.2026 | 40,459 | -1,667 | $24.44 |
| Allen James Douglas | Exercise of Derivative Securities | 31.3.2026 | 3,999 | -4,505 | — |
| Parmer Elizabeth | Exercise of Derivative Securities | 28.3.2026 | 6,248 | +402 | — |
| Parmer Elizabeth | Exercise of Derivative Securities | 28.3.2026 | 403 | -402 | — |
| Walker Mark Stephen | Exercise of Derivative Securities | 28.3.2026 | 26,173 | +1,991 | — |
| Walker Mark Stephen | Tax Withholding in Shares | 28.3.2026 | 25,286 | -887 | $24.81 |
| Walker Mark Stephen | Exercise of Derivative Securities | 28.3.2026 | 5,971 | -1,991 | — |
| Allen James Douglas | Exercise of Derivative Securities | 28.3.2026 | 38,358 | +1,991 | — |
| Allen James Douglas | Tax Withholding in Shares | 28.3.2026 | 37,621 | -737 | $24.81 |
| Allen James Douglas | Exercise of Derivative Securities | 28.3.2026 | 5,599 | -1,991 | — |
| Oxley Anthony W | Exercise of Derivative Securities | 28.3.2026 | 14,770 | +4,977 | — |
| Oxley Anthony W | Tax Withholding in Shares | 28.3.2026 | 12,811 | -1,959 | $24.81 |
| Oxley Anthony W | Exercise of Derivative Securities | 28.3.2026 | 4,977 | -4,977 | — |
| TOMNITZ DONALD J | Exercise of Derivative Securities | 28.3.2026 | 141,072 | +4,977 | — |
| TOMNITZ DONALD J | Tax Withholding in Shares | 28.3.2026 | 139,230 | -1,842 | $24.81 |
| TOMNITZ DONALD J | Exercise of Derivative Securities | 28.3.2026 | 4,420 | -4,977 | — |
| FULLER SAMUEL R | Exercise of Derivative Securities | 28.3.2026 | 31,607 | +402 | — |
| FULLER SAMUEL R | Exercise of Derivative Securities | 28.3.2026 | 403 | -402 | — |
| Jamieson Lisa H. | Exercise of Derivative Securities | 28.3.2026 | 26,107 | +402 | — |
| Jamieson Lisa H. | Exercise of Derivative Securities | 28.3.2026 | 403 | -402 | — |
📉 Short Interest
Official FINRA data — the number of shares open in short positions, plus daily short-sale activity.
Monthly Trend — Open Short Interest
530,204 shares short as of 2026-07-15 · vs. 534,995 on 2026-06-30
Official biweekly report (FINRA Rule 4560) — no real higher-frequency data exists for this metric.
Weekly Trend — Daily Short-Sale Activity
53.4% of trading volume this week was short selling, vs. 66.8% the prior week
Based on daily short-sale volume (Reg SHO) — a different metric from the open short interest above: this is daily trading volume, not an open position, so it updates weekly rather than biweekly.
📰 News & Sentiment
Sentiment based on basic keywords (not AI) — 0 positive, 0 neutral, 0 negative out of the last 0 articles.
No recent articles found for this stock.