EXE
Expand EnergyEnergy · ·
$91.96
▲ $1.14 (+1.3%)
Market Cap
$22.00B
Day Range
$91.07 - $92.90
52-Week Range
$84.99 - $126.62
Beta
—
Next Earnings
26.10.2026
EXE is a stock from the Energy sector — Oil, gas, and renewable energy — highly volatile profitability, dependent on global commodity prices.
🏢 Similar Stocks in the Same Sector
-8.0% (1Y)
This score and all analysis on this page are for informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. Read the full disclaimer
Weighted: Technical 25% · Fundamental 20% · Growth 15% · Valuation 15% · News 10% · Quality 10% · Risk 5%
🔍 Cross-Check
Overall Score
🟡 Mixed
Technical Trend
🟡 Mixed
Insiders
🟢 Bullish
✅ Why is the score relatively high?
- 🟢 Estimated fair value: $176.94 vs. price $91.96 (+92.4%)
- 🟢 Revenue growth (last year): 186.3%
- 🟢 Earnings per share (EPS) growth: 266.4%
- 🟢 Free cash flow growth: 22887.5%
- 🟢 Net income growth: 354.8%
⚠️ What's concerning?
- 🔴 Price is below the 200-day average
- 🔴 -9.9% over the last 3 months relative to the index
- 🔴 CMF 20 days: -0.08
- 🔴 Volume is falling despite the price advance — possible weakening
- 🔴 Return on equity (ROE): 9.8% — weak
🚦 Quality & Risk Checks
📰 News Trend
Based on real financial news (Finnhub)Everyone's writing about Expand Energy. News trend score: 100. Reason: 17 of the last 20 articles are positive, versus 1 negative.
News trend analysis is based on article sentiment only, and is not investment advice or financial counsel. Read the full disclaimer
📈 Technical Analysis
Based on the last 251 trading days, calculated from real price data. Click an indicator for details and a chart.
🟡 Indicators are mixed — no clear bias (5 bullish · 4 bearish · 2 neutral)
Conclusions
- 🟢Price vs. SMA 50 — Price is above the 50-day average
- 🔴Price vs. SMA 200 — Price is below the 200-day average
- 🟢MACD — MACD histogram is positive — rising momentum
- 🟢RSI — RSI 52.9 — healthy positive momentum
- 🟡Stochastic — %K 61.0 — neutral range
- 🟡ADX (trend strength) — ADX 15.1 — weak trend/choppy
- 🔴Volume trend — Volume is falling despite the price advance — possible weakening
- 🔴Relative strength vs. S&P 500 — -9.9% over the last 3 months relative to the index
- 🟢ROC (rate of change) — ROC 12 days: 3.8%
- 🟢Parabolic SAR — Price is above the SAR point — uptrend
- 🔴CMF (money flow) — CMF 20 days: -0.08
Wyckoff Method Analysis
A market-structure read based purely on real price and volume data — not full classic Wyckoff schematic identification (Phase A-E), but a quantitative analysis of what can reliably be computed: trading ranges, "effort vs. result", volume within the range, and Spring/Upthrust detection.
A trading range after a decline, but still without clear (volume-based) confirmation of an accumulation phase.
Low confidence
$84.99
Range Bottom
$95.51
Range Top
50
Trading Days in Range
Evidence Behind This Read
- 🟡Trading range identified — The stock is trading in a 12.4% range (between 84.99 and 95.51) over 50 trading days.
- 🟢The range follows a downtrend — Under the Wyckoff method, a trading range following a decline is a natural candidate for an Accumulation phase — smart money buying from weak sellers.
- 🟡Trading volume in the range is relatively stable — There's no clear sign yet of supply/demand being exhausted within the range.
The Wyckoff Method, developed by Richard Wyckoff in the early 20th century, reads the balance of supply and demand through price and volume, based on the premise that large investors ("smart money") quietly accumulate shares before rallies and quietly distribute them before declines. The read here is based solely on real price and volume data — full, precise identification of classic Wyckoff patterns (such as Phases A-E) requires human chart-reading experience and judgment, so this is an approximate algorithmic read, not a substitute for professional analysis. This should not be considered investment advice.
🎯 Trade Planning (M.A.E.E Framework)
Based on a mechanical trading method: market structure → value zone → ATR-based exit point. Not investment advice — a calculation tool only.
1️⃣ Market Structure
🔴 Downtrend
The price is below the 200-day average — an environment that mainly favors looking for selling (Short) opportunities, not buying.
2️⃣ Value Zone
🟢 Price in value zone
The price is close to the 50-day moving average — per the method, this is a reasonable area to look for an entry, rather than chasing the price far from it.
3️⃣ Suggested Exit Point (ATR-based)
Method formula: Stop-loss = resistance plusone ATR margin — this way the stop adapts to the stock's actual volatility, rather than an arbitrary number.
Entry
$91.96
Stop-Loss
$98.08
Risk per Share
$6.12
Direction
Short
Profit Targets by Risk/Reward Ratio (R)
1:2 R
$79.72
1:3 R
$73.59
1:5 R
$61.35
💰 Position Size Calculator
A core principle of the method: never risk a fixed dollar amount — risk a fixed percentage of equity, and let the position size vary according to the risk per share.
Suggested Position Size
16 sh.
💰 Financial Health
Profitability
Gross Margin
—
Operating Margin
20.4%
Net Margin
15.0%
EBITDA Margin
45.0%
Efficiency
ROE
9.8%
ROA
6.4%
ROIC
—
EPS
$7.67
Balance Sheet
Cash
$616.00M
Total Debt
$5.01B
Current Ratio
1.01
Debt/Equity
0.27
Conclusions
- 🟢Operating margin — Operating margin: 20.4% — strong
- 🟢Net margin — Net margin: 15.0% — strong
- 🔴Return on equity (ROE) — Return on equity (ROE): 9.8% — weak
- 🟡Return on assets (ROA) — Return on assets (ROA): 6.4% — reasonable
- 🟡Current ratio (liquidity) — Current ratio: 1.01
- 🟢Debt-to-equity — Debt/equity: 0.27
🚀 Growth
Revenue
Earnings per Share (EPS)
Net Income
Free Cash Flow (FCF)
Conclusions
- 🟢Revenue growth (last year) — Revenue growth (last year): 186.3%
- 🟢Earnings per share (EPS) growth — Earnings per share (EPS) growth: 266.4%
- 🟢Free cash flow growth — Free cash flow growth: 22887.5%
- 🟢Net income growth — Net income growth: 354.8%
💵 Dividends
Total dividend per share paid each year, over the last 5 years.
Annual Dividend per Share
| Ex-Dividend Date | Amount per Share |
|---|---|
| 14.5.2026 | $0.575 |
| 5.3.2026 | $0.575 |
| 13.11.2025 | $0.575 |
| 14.8.2025 | $1.465 |
| 15.5.2025 | $0.575 |
| 11.3.2025 | $0.575 |
| 14.11.2024 | $0.575 |
| 15.8.2024 | $0.575 |
| 15.5.2024 | $0.715 |
| 6.3.2024 | $0.575 |
| 15.11.2023 | $0.575 |
| 16.8.2023 | $0.575 |
💎 Fair Value (Valuation)
Current Price
$91.96
Estimated Fair Value (DCF)
$176.94
Gap
+92.4%
🟢 Appears cheap relative to estimated value
Show all model (DCF) assumptions →
Year 1 Growth Rate
25.0%
Discount Rate (WACC)
9.0%
Terminal Growth Rate
2.5%
Projection Years
5
| Year | Growth Rate | Projected FCF | Present Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 25.0% | $2.30B | $2.11B |
| 2 | 19.4% | $2.74B | $2.31B |
| 3 | 13.8% | $3.12B | $2.41B |
| 4 | 8.1% | $3.38B | $2.39B |
| 5 | 2.5% | $3.46B | $2.25B |
Base FCF (last actual year)
$1.84B
Terminal Value
$54.55B
Present Value of Terminal Value
$35.46B
Enterprise Value
$46.92B
Net Debt
$4.39B
Equity Value
$42.53B
*The DCF model is an estimate based on assumptions — not a guaranteed forecast. You can change the assumptions to examine different scenarios.
Book Value per Share
$77.29
Tangible Book Value per Share (Tangible NAV)
$77.29
Conclusions
- 🟢DCF Fair Value — Estimated fair value: $176.94 vs. price $91.96 (+92.4%)
- 🟡Tangible Net Asset Value (NAV) — NAV per share: $77.29
- 🟢P/E — P/E: 12.1
🕴️ Insider Trading
Real transactions by officers and insiders, as reported to the SEC on Form 4 — 4 purchases and 0 sales out of the last 25 filings.
| Name | Transaction Type | Date | Shares | Change | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wichterich Michael | Open Market Purchase | 12.6.2026 | 85,498 | +1,000 | $88.90 |
| Teunissen Marcel | Open Market Purchase | 4.6.2026 | 11,144 | +2,000 | $92.88 |
| Wichterich Michael | Open Market Purchase | 4.6.2026 | 84,498 | +1,000 | $93.36 |
| JOHNSON S P IV | Grant/Award from Employer | 4.6.2026 | 19,895 | +2,331 | $96.53 |
| Duster Benjamin | Grant/Award from Employer | 4.6.2026 | 17,932 | +2,331 | $96.53 |
| Konar Shameek | Grant/Award from Employer | 4.6.2026 | 10,042 | +2,331 | $96.53 |
| Kehr Catherine A | Grant/Award from Employer | 4.6.2026 | 9,335 | +2,331 | $96.53 |
| Gallagher Matthew | Grant/Award from Employer | 4.6.2026 | 20,248 | +2,331 | $96.53 |
| Steck Brian | Grant/Award from Employer | 4.6.2026 | 20,258 | +2,746 | $96.53 |
| Duncan Timothy S. | Grant/Award from Employer | 4.6.2026 | 19,051 | +2,331 | $96.53 |
| Emerson Sarah A. | Grant/Award from Employer | 4.6.2026 | 17,932 | +2,331 | $96.53 |
| Teunissen Marcel | Open Market Purchase | 7.5.2026 | 9,144 | +2,000 | $96.43 |
| Teunissen Marcel | Grant/Award from Employer | 6.4.2026 | 7,144 | +5,144 | — |
| Teunissen Marcel | Grant/Award from Employer | 6.4.2026 | 6,001 | +6,001 | — |
| Lacy Christopher W | Grant/Award from Employer | 15.3.2026 | 59,851 | +5,693 | — |
| Lacy Christopher W | Tax Withholding in Shares | 15.3.2026 | 59,031 | -820 | $107.02 |
| Lacy Christopher W | Grant/Award from Employer | 15.3.2026 | 6,641 | +6,641 | — |
| Viets Joshua J. | Grant/Award from Employer | 15.3.2026 | 72,491 | +10,815 | — |
| Viets Joshua J. | Exercise of Derivative Securities | 15.3.2026 | 86,117 | +13,626 | — |
| Viets Joshua J. | Exercise of Derivative Securities | 15.3.2026 | 87,227 | +1,110 | — |
| Viets Joshua J. | Tax Withholding in Shares | 15.3.2026 | 83,499 | -3,728 | $107.02 |
| Viets Joshua J. | Tax Withholding in Shares | 15.3.2026 | 77,037 | -6,462 | $107.02 |
| Viets Joshua J. | Exercise of Derivative Securities | 15.3.2026 | 0 | -1,110 | — |
| Viets Joshua J. | Grant/Award from Employer | 15.3.2026 | 12,618 | +12,618 | — |
| Larson Gregory M. | Grant/Award from Employer | 15.3.2026 | 14,405 | +2,372 | — |
📉 Short Interest
Official FINRA data — the number of shares open in short positions, plus daily short-sale activity.
Monthly Trend — Open Short Interest
8,471,551 shares short as of 2026-07-15 · vs. 7,692,940 on 2026-06-30
Official biweekly report (FINRA Rule 4560) — no real higher-frequency data exists for this metric.
Weekly Trend — Daily Short-Sale Activity
60.2% of trading volume this week was short selling, vs. 55.9% the prior week
Based on daily short-sale volume (Reg SHO) — a different metric from the open short interest above: this is daily trading volume, not an open position, so it updates weekly rather than biweekly.
📰 News & Sentiment
Sentiment based on basic keywords (not AI) — 17 positive, 2 neutral, 1 negative out of the last 20 articles.
SeekingAlpha · 4.8.2026
Yahoo · 4.8.2026
CNBC · 2.8.2026
ChartMill · 1.8.2026
Yahoo · 31.7.2026
Yahoo · 31.7.2026
Benzinga · 31.7.2026
Yahoo · 31.7.2026
Yahoo · 30.7.2026
Yahoo · 30.7.2026
Benzinga · 30.7.2026
Yahoo · 30.7.2026
Benzinga · 30.7.2026
Yahoo · 30.7.2026
ChartMill · 30.7.2026
Yahoo · 30.7.2026
- 🟢 Expand Energy Corp (EXE) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Strategic Moves and Financial Gains ...
Yahoo · 29.7.2026
SeekingAlpha · 29.7.2026
Yahoo · 29.7.2026
SeekingAlpha · 29.7.2026