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ESNT

Essent Group Ltd. Common Shares

Finance · ·

$65.51

▼ $1.00 (-1.5%)

Market Cap

$6.04B

Day Range

$64.94 - $66.35

52-Week Range

$55.34 - $68.62

Beta

—

Next Earnings

07.08.2026

🏢 Similar Stocks in the Same Sector

AAMI

Acadian Asset Management Inc.

ABCB

Ameris Bancorp

ABX

Abacus Global Management, Inc.

+15.0% (1Y)

Some data (financial/growth/valuation) is currently unavailable — the daily API quota was likely exhausted. The score is computed from 6 of 7 available categories. Try again later for the full analysis.
Investor Score
63/ 100C+
🟡 Moderate

This score and all analysis on this page are for informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. Read the full disclaimer

📈75B+Technical
💰60C+Fundamental
🚀42DGrowth
💎67B-Valuation
📰68B-News
🏦—Quality
⚠️50C-Risk

Weighted: Technical 25% · Fundamental 20% · Growth 15% · Valuation 15% · News 10% · Quality 10% · Risk 5%

🔍 Cross-Check

Overall Score

🟡 Mixed

Technical Trend

🟢 Bullish

Insiders

🔴 Bearish

✅ Why is the score relatively high?

  • 🟢 Estimated fair value: $151.85 vs. price $65.51 (+131.8%)
  • 🟢 SMA 50 recently crossed above SMA 200
  • 🟢 Price is above the 50-day average
  • 🟢 Price is above the 200-day average
  • 🟢 RSI 57.7 — healthy positive momentum

⚠️ What's concerning?

  • 🔴 Free cash flow growth: -0.7%
  • 🔴 Net income growth: -5.4%
  • 🔴 MACD histogram is negative — falling momentum
  • 🔴 Price is below the SAR point — downtrend

🚦 Quality & Risk Checks

🟡 Daily volatility (ATR)

📰 News Trend

Based on real financial news (Finnhub)
🟡 Mixed

Everyone's writing about Essent Group Ltd. Common Shares. News trend score: 68. Reason: 6 of the last 19 articles are positive, versus 3 negative.

🟢 Rocket Companies (RKT) Matches Q2 Earnings Estimates — Yahoo🟢 Allstate (ALL) Beats Q2 Earnings Estimates — Yahoo🟢 Allstate (ALL) Beats Q2 Earnings Estimates — Zacks

News trend analysis is based on article sentiment only, and is not investment advice or financial counsel. Read the full disclaimer

📈 Technical Analysis

Based on the last 251 trading days, calculated from real price data. Click an indicator for details and a chart.

🟢 Most indicators support an uptrend (7 bullish · 2 bearish · 2 neutral)

Conclusions

  • 🟢Price vs. SMA 50 — Price is above the 50-day average
  • 🟢Price vs. SMA 200 — Price is above the 200-day average
  • 🟢Golden Cross — SMA 50 recently crossed above SMA 200
  • 🔴MACD — MACD histogram is negative — falling momentum
  • 🟢RSI — RSI 57.7 — healthy positive momentum
  • 🟡Stochastic — %K 56.4 — neutral range
  • 🟡ADX (trend strength) — ADX 22.1 — weak trend/choppy
  • 🟢Relative strength vs. S&P 500 — +5.8% over the last 3 months relative to the index
  • 🟢ROC (rate of change) — ROC 12 days: 0.5%
  • 🔴Parabolic SAR — Price is below the SAR point — downtrend
  • 🟢CMF (money flow) — CMF 20 days: 0.11

Wyckoff Method Analysis

A market-structure read based purely on real price and volume data — not full classic Wyckoff schematic identification (Phase A-E), but a quantitative analysis of what can reliably be computed: trading ranges, "effort vs. result", volume within the range, and Spring/Upthrust detection.

Markup

The stock is in a clear uptrend with no defined trading range in the period examined.

Medium confidence

Evidence Behind This Read

  • 🟢Rising price trend — A 10.1% change over the last 50 days, with no defined trading range.

The Wyckoff Method, developed by Richard Wyckoff in the early 20th century, reads the balance of supply and demand through price and volume, based on the premise that large investors ("smart money") quietly accumulate shares before rallies and quietly distribute them before declines. The read here is based solely on real price and volume data — full, precise identification of classic Wyckoff patterns (such as Phases A-E) requires human chart-reading experience and judgment, so this is an approximate algorithmic read, not a substitute for professional analysis. This should not be considered investment advice.

🎯 Trade Planning (M.A.E.E Framework)

Based on a mechanical trading method: market structure → value zone → ATR-based exit point. Not investment advice — a calculation tool only.

1️⃣ Market Structure

🟢 Uptrend

The price is above the 200-day average — per the market-structure method, this environment mainly favors looking for buying (Long) opportunities.

2️⃣ Value Zone

🟡 Price far from value zone

The price is currently far from the 50-day average — the method recommends waiting for a "pullback" before entering, rather than chasing prices.

3️⃣ Suggested Exit Point (ATR-based)

Method formula: Stop-loss = support minusone ATR margin — this way the stop adapts to the stock's actual volatility, rather than an arbitrary number.

Entry

$66.51

Stop-Loss

$53.95

Risk per Share

$12.56

Direction

Long

Profit Targets by Risk/Reward Ratio (R)

1:2 R

$91.63

1:3 R

$104.19

1:5 R

$129.31

💰 Position Size Calculator

A core principle of the method: never risk a fixed dollar amount — risk a fixed percentage of equity, and let the position size vary according to the risk per share.

Suggested Position Size

7 sh.

💰 Financial Health

Profitability

Gross Margin

—

Operating Margin

—

Net Margin

54.7%

EBITDA Margin

—

Efficiency

ROE

12.0%

ROA

9.3%

ROIC

—

EPS

$6.97

Balance Sheet

Cash

$123.05M

Total Debt

—

Current Ratio

—

Debt/Equity

—

Conclusions

  • 🟢Net margin — Net margin: 54.7% — strong
  • 🟡Return on equity (ROE) — Return on equity (ROE): 12.0% — reasonable
  • 🟡Return on assets (ROA) — Return on assets (ROA): 9.3% — reasonable

🚀 Growth

Revenue

Earnings per Share (EPS)

Net Income

Free Cash Flow (FCF)

Conclusions

  • 🟡Revenue growth (last year) — Revenue growth (last year): 1.5%
  • 🟡Earnings per share (EPS) growth — Earnings per share (EPS) growth: 0.7%
  • 🔴Free cash flow growth — Free cash flow growth: -0.7%
  • 🔴Net income growth — Net income growth: -5.4%

💵 Dividends

Total dividend per share paid each year, over the last 5 years.

Annual Dividend per Share

Ex-Dividend DateAmount per Share
1.6.2026$0.350
13.3.2026$0.350
30.5.2025$0.310
14.3.2025$0.310
2.12.2024$0.280
30.8.2024$0.280
31.5.2024$0.280
12.3.2024$0.280
30.11.2023$0.250
31.8.2023$0.250
31.5.2023$0.250
9.3.2023$0.250

💎 Fair Value (Valuation)

Current Price

$65.51

Estimated Fair Value (DCF)

$151.85

Gap

+131.8%

🟢 Appears cheap relative to estimated value

Show all model (DCF) assumptions →

Year 1 Growth Rate

8.1%

Discount Rate (WACC)

9.0%

Terminal Growth Rate

2.5%

Projection Years

5

YearGrowth RateProjected FCFPresent Value
18.1%$917.53M$841.77M
26.7%$979.08M$824.07M
35.3%$1.03B$796.14M
43.9%$1.07B$758.91M
52.5%$1.10B$713.65M

Base FCF (last actual year)

$848.69M

Terminal Value

$17.32B

Present Value of Terminal Value

$11.25B

Enterprise Value

$15.19B

Net Debt

$0

Equity Value

$15.19B

*The DCF model is an estimate based on assumptions — not a guaranteed forecast. You can change the assumptions to examine different scenarios.

Book Value per Share

$57.55

Tangible Book Value per Share (Tangible NAV)

$57.07

Conclusions

  • 🟢DCF Fair Value — Estimated fair value: $151.85 vs. price $65.51 (+131.8%)
  • 🟡Tangible Net Asset Value (NAV) — NAV per share: $57.07
  • 🟢P/E — P/E: 9.6

🕴️ Insider Trading

Real transactions by officers and insiders, as reported to the SEC on Form 4 — 0 purchases and 6 sales out of the last 25 filings.

NameTransaction TypeDateSharesChangePrice
Gibbons Mary LourdesOpen Market Sale17.7.2026228,658-4,678$67.04
CASALE MARKOpen Market Sale14.7.20262,081,544-78,699$65.23
CASALE MARKOpen Market Sale13.7.20262,160,243-23,900$65.07
CASALE MARKOpen Market Sale7.7.20262,184,143-29,329$65.35
CASALE MARKOpen Market Sale6.7.20262,213,472-1,245$65.08
CASALE MARKOpen Market Sale30.6.20262,214,717-3,763$65.01
KASMAR ROY JAMESExercise of Derivative Securities7.5.20262,569+2,569—
KASMAR ROY JAMESExercise of Derivative Securities7.5.20262,625+56—
KASMAR ROY JAMESExercise of Derivative Securities7.5.20262,443-2,569—
KASMAR ROY JAMESExercise of Derivative Securities7.5.20260-56—
SPIEGEL WILLIAMExercise of Derivative Securities7.5.202628,821+2,569—
SPIEGEL WILLIAMExercise of Derivative Securities7.5.202628,877+56—
SPIEGEL WILLIAMExercise of Derivative Securities7.5.20262,443-2,569—
SPIEGEL WILLIAMExercise of Derivative Securities7.5.20260-56—
PAULS DOUGLAS JExercise of Derivative Securities7.5.20262,569+2,569—
PAULS DOUGLAS JExercise of Derivative Securities7.5.20262,625+56—
PAULS DOUGLAS JExercise of Derivative Securities7.5.20262,443-2,569—
PAULS DOUGLAS JExercise of Derivative Securities7.5.20260-56—
Benson David CExercise of Derivative Securities7.5.20262,569+2,569—
Benson David CExercise of Derivative Securities7.5.20262,625+56—
Benson David CExercise of Derivative Securities7.5.20262,443-2,569—
Benson David CExercise of Derivative Securities7.5.20260-56—
Karna AnuExercise of Derivative Securities7.5.202610,740+2,569—
Karna AnuExercise of Derivative Securities7.5.202610,796+56—
Karna AnuExercise of Derivative Securities7.5.20262,443-2,569—

📉 Short Interest

Official FINRA data — the number of shares open in short positions, plus daily short-sale activity.

Monthly Trend — Open Short Interest

↓-2.9%

2,605,286 shares short as of 2026-07-15 · vs. 2,681,790 on 2026-06-30

Official biweekly report (FINRA Rule 4560) — no real higher-frequency data exists for this metric.

Weekly Trend — Daily Short-Sale Activity

↓-8.6%

61.6% of trading volume this week was short selling, vs. 67.4% the prior week

Based on daily short-sale volume (Reg SHO) — a different metric from the open short interest above: this is daily trading volume, not an open position, so it updates weekly rather than biweekly.

📰 News & Sentiment

Sentiment based on basic keywords (not AI) — 6 positive, 10 neutral, 3 negative out of the last 19 articles.