AAP
Advance Auto Parts Inc.Consumer Discretionary · ·
$57.92
▼ $1.66 (-2.8%)
Market Cap
$3.49B
Day Range
$57.63 - $59.21
52-Week Range
$37.89 - $65.21
Beta
—
Next Earnings
20.08.2026
AAP is a stock from the Consumer Cyclical sector — Retail, automotive, and leisure — demand rises and falls with economic sentiment and consumers' disposable income.
🏢 Similar Stocks in the Same Sector
-1.4% (1Y)
This score and all analysis on this page are for informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. Read the full disclaimer
Weighted: Technical 25% · Fundamental 20% · Growth 15% · Valuation 15% · News 10% · Quality 10% · Risk 5%
🔍 Cross-Check
Overall Score
🟡 Mixed
Technical Trend
🟢 Bullish
✅ Why is the score relatively high?
- 🟢 Earnings per share (EPS) growth: 113.0%
- 🟢 Net income growth: 113.1%
- 🟢 Current ratio: 1.75
- 🟢 Price is above the 50-day average
- 🟢 Price is above the 200-day average
⚠️ What's concerning?
- 🔴 Estimated fair value: -$74.58 vs. price $57.92 (-228.8%)
- 🔴 Operating margin: -0.5% (negative)
- 🔴 Operating margin is eroding over time
- 🔴 ATR: 4.7% of price
- 🔴 Revenue growth (last year): -5.4%
🚦 Quality & Risk Checks
📰 News Trend
Based on real financial news (Finnhub)Everyone's writing about Advance Auto Parts Inc.. News trend score: 44. Reason: 1 of the last 1 articles are negative, versus 0 positive.
News trend analysis is based on article sentiment only, and is not investment advice or financial counsel. Read the full disclaimer
📈 Technical Analysis
Based on the last 251 trading days, calculated from real price data. Click an indicator for details and a chart.
🟢 Most indicators support an uptrend (7 bullish · 3 bearish · 2 neutral)
Conclusions
- 🟢Price vs. SMA 50 — Price is above the 50-day average
- 🟢Price vs. SMA 200 — Price is above the 200-day average
- 🟢MACD — MACD histogram is positive — rising momentum
- 🟢RSI — RSI 57.3 — healthy positive momentum
- 🔴Stochastic — %K 92.5 — overbought
- 🟡ADX (trend strength) — ADX 12.5 — weak trend/choppy
- 🔴Volume trend — Volume is falling despite the price advance — possible weakening
- 🔴Relative strength vs. S&P 500 — -0.0% over the last 3 months relative to the index
- 🟢Bollinger Bands — Price is in the upper third of the Bollinger Bands (94%B) — strong momentum (risk of a pullback)
- 🟢ROC (rate of change) — ROC 12 days: 14.5%
- 🟢Parabolic SAR — Price is above the SAR point — uptrend
- 🟡CMF (money flow) — CMF 20 days: 0.04
Wyckoff Method Analysis
A market-structure read based purely on real price and volume data — not full classic Wyckoff schematic identification (Phase A-E), but a quantitative analysis of what can reliably be computed: trading ranges, "effort vs. result", volume within the range, and Spring/Upthrust detection.
The stock is in a clear uptrend with no defined trading range in the period examined.
Medium confidence
Evidence Behind This Read
- 🟢Rising price trend — A 8.1% change over the last 50 days, with no defined trading range.
The Wyckoff Method, developed by Richard Wyckoff in the early 20th century, reads the balance of supply and demand through price and volume, based on the premise that large investors ("smart money") quietly accumulate shares before rallies and quietly distribute them before declines. The read here is based solely on real price and volume data — full, precise identification of classic Wyckoff patterns (such as Phases A-E) requires human chart-reading experience and judgment, so this is an approximate algorithmic read, not a substitute for professional analysis. This should not be considered investment advice.
🎯 Trade Planning (M.A.E.E Framework)
Based on a mechanical trading method: market structure → value zone → ATR-based exit point. Not investment advice — a calculation tool only.
1️⃣ Market Structure
🟢 Uptrend
The price is above the 200-day average — per the market-structure method, this environment mainly favors looking for buying (Long) opportunities.
2️⃣ Value Zone
🟡 Price far from value zone
The price is currently far from the 50-day average — the method recommends waiting for a "pullback" before entering, rather than chasing prices.
3️⃣ Suggested Exit Point (ATR-based)
Method formula: Stop-loss = support minusone ATR margin — this way the stop adapts to the stock's actual volatility, rather than an arbitrary number.
Entry
$59.58
Stop-Loss
$48.15
Risk per Share
$11.43
Direction
Long
Profit Targets by Risk/Reward Ratio (R)
1:2 R
$82.44
1:3 R
$93.86
1:5 R
$116.72
💰 Position Size Calculator
A core principle of the method: never risk a fixed dollar amount — risk a fixed percentage of equity, and let the position size vary according to the risk per share.
Suggested Position Size
8 sh.
💰 Financial Health
Profitability
Gross Margin
43.4%
Operating Margin
-0.5%
Net Margin
0.5%
EBITDA Margin
2.7%
Efficiency
ROE
2.0%
ROA
0.4%
ROIC
—
EPS
$0.73
Balance Sheet
Cash
$3.12B
Total Debt
$3.41B
Current Ratio
1.75
Debt/Equity
1.55
Conclusions
- 🟢Gross margin — Gross margin: 43.4% — strong
- 🔴Operating margin — Operating margin: -0.5% (negative)
- 🔴Net margin — Net margin: 0.5% — weak
- 🔴Return on equity (ROE) — Return on equity (ROE): 2.0% — weak
- 🔴Return on assets (ROA) — Return on assets (ROA): 0.4% — weak
- 🟢Current ratio (liquidity) — Current ratio: 1.75
- 🔴Debt-to-equity — Debt/equity: 1.55
🚀 Growth
Revenue
Earnings per Share (EPS)
Net Income
Free Cash Flow (FCF)
Conclusions
- 🔴Revenue growth (last year) — Revenue growth (last year): -5.4%
- 🟢Earnings per share (EPS) growth — Earnings per share (EPS) growth: 113.0%
- 🔴Free cash flow growth — Free cash flow growth: -210.4%
- 🟢Net income growth — Net income growth: 113.1%
💵 Dividends
Total dividend per share paid each year, over the last 5 years.
Annual Dividend per Share
| Ex-Dividend Date | Amount per Share |
|---|---|
| 10.7.2026 | $0.250 |
| 10.4.2026 | $0.250 |
| 9.1.2026 | $0.250 |
| 10.10.2025 | $0.250 |
| 11.7.2025 | $0.250 |
| 11.4.2025 | $0.250 |
| 10.1.2025 | $0.250 |
| 11.10.2024 | $0.250 |
| 12.7.2024 | $0.250 |
| 11.4.2024 | $0.250 |
| 11.1.2024 | $0.250 |
| 12.10.2023 | $0.250 |
💎 Fair Value (Valuation)
Current Price
$57.92
Estimated Fair Value (DCF)
-$74.58
Gap
-228.8%
🔴 Appears expensive relative to estimated value
Show all model (DCF) assumptions →
Year 1 Growth Rate
-2.0%
Discount Rate (WACC)
9.0%
Terminal Growth Rate
2.5%
Projection Years
5
| Year | Growth Rate | Projected FCF | Present Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | -2.0% | $-292.03M | $-267.91M |
| 2 | -0.9% | $-289.46M | $-243.64M |
| 3 | 0.2% | $-290.18M | $-224.07M |
| 4 | 1.4% | $-294.17M | $-208.40M |
| 5 | 2.5% | $-301.52M | $-195.97M |
Base FCF (last actual year)
$-298.00M
Terminal Value
$-4.75B
Present Value of Terminal Value
$-3.09B
Enterprise Value
$-4.23B
Net Debt
$289.00M
Equity Value
$-4.52B
*The DCF model is an estimate based on assumptions — not a guaranteed forecast. You can change the assumptions to examine different scenarios.
Book Value per Share
$36.27
Tangible Book Value per Share (Tangible NAV)
$19.77
Conclusions
- 🔴DCF Fair Value — Estimated fair value: -$74.58 vs. price $57.92 (-228.8%)
- 🟡Tangible Net Asset Value (NAV) — NAV per share: $19.77
- 🔴P/E — P/E: 79.3
🕴️ Insider Trading
Real transactions by officers and insiders, as reported to the SEC on Form 4 — 0 purchases and 0 sales out of the last 25 filings.
| Name | Transaction Type | Date | Shares | Change | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seboldt Thomas W | Grant/Award from Employer | 24.7.2026 | 15,858 | +27 | $53.90 |
| Seboldt Thomas W | Grant/Award from Employer | 24.7.2026 | 15,903 | +45 | $55.80 |
| Bailo Carla Jean | Grant/Award from Employer | 24.7.2026 | 15,327 | +65 | $55.80 |
| Ferraro John Francis | Grant/Award from Employer | 24.7.2026 | 27,207 | +119 | $55.80 |
| Hilson Joan M | Grant/Award from Employer | 24.7.2026 | 12,997 | +58 | $55.80 |
| Smith Gregory L | Grant/Award from Employer | 24.7.2026 | 9,720 | +43 | $55.80 |
| LEE EUGENE I JR | Grant/Award from Employer | 24.7.2026 | 90,199 | +388 | $55.80 |
| Windom Brent | Grant/Award from Employer | 24.7.2026 | 9,720 | +43 | $55.80 |
| JAMISON CYNTHIA T | Grant/Award from Employer | 24.7.2026 | 3,703 | +17 | $55.80 |
| Johnson Richard A | Grant/Award from Employer | 24.7.2026 | 4,182 | +19 | $55.80 |
| Soler Kristen L | Tax Withholding in Shares | 12.6.2026 | 31,311 | -759 | $60.80 |
| Ferraro John Francis | Grant/Award from Employer | 2.6.2026 | 27,088 | +3,209 | $57.65 |
| Bailo Carla Jean | Grant/Award from Employer | 2.6.2026 | 15,262 | +3,209 | $57.65 |
| Smith Gregory L | Grant/Award from Employer | 2.6.2026 | 9,676 | +3,209 | $57.65 |
| Windom Brent | Grant/Award from Employer | 2.6.2026 | 9,676 | +3,209 | $57.65 |
| JAMISON CYNTHIA T | Grant/Award from Employer | 2.6.2026 | 3,686 | +3,686 | $57.65 |
| LEE EUGENE I JR | Grant/Award from Employer | 2.6.2026 | 87,209 | +3,209 | $57.65 |
| LEE EUGENE I JR | Grant/Award from Employer | 2.6.2026 | 89,811 | +2,602 | $57.65 |
| Seboldt Thomas W | Grant/Award from Employer | 2.6.2026 | 15,744 | +3,209 | $57.65 |
| Seboldt Thomas W | Grant/Award from Employer | 2.6.2026 | 15,831 | +87 | $57.65 |
| Hilson Joan M | Grant/Award from Employer | 2.6.2026 | 12,939 | +3,209 | $57.65 |
| Johnson Richard A | Grant/Award from Employer | 2.6.2026 | 4,163 | +4,163 | $57.65 |
| Seboldt Thomas W | Grant/Award from Employer | 24.4.2026 | 12,506 | +25 | $58.93 |
| Bailo Carla Jean | Grant/Award from Employer | 24.4.2026 | 12,053 | +49 | $58.18 |
| Ferraro John Francis | Grant/Award from Employer | 24.4.2026 | 23,879 | +100 | $58.18 |
📉 Short Interest
Official FINRA data — the number of shares open in short positions, plus daily short-sale activity.
Monthly Trend — Open Short Interest
10,770,232 shares short as of 2026-07-15 · vs. 11,772,073 on 2026-06-30
Official biweekly report (FINRA Rule 4560) — no real higher-frequency data exists for this metric.
Weekly Trend — Daily Short-Sale Activity
70.5% of trading volume this week was short selling, vs. 60.2% the prior week
Based on daily short-sale volume (Reg SHO) — a different metric from the open short interest above: this is daily trading volume, not an open position, so it updates weekly rather than biweekly.
📰 News & Sentiment
Sentiment based on basic keywords (not AI) — 0 positive, 0 neutral, 1 negative out of the last 1 articles.
Benzinga · 4.8.2026