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W

Wayfair Inc.

· · NYSE

$104.07

$3.50 (-3.3%)

Market Cap

Day Range

$104.00 - $108.40

52-Week Range

$55.60 - $119.98

Beta

Next Earnings

23.09.2026

+40.3% (1Y)

Investor Score
63/ 100C+
🟡 Moderate

This score and all analysis on this page are for informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. Read the full disclaimer

📈87ATechnical
💰36FFundamental
🚀76B+Growth
💎38FValuation
📰100A+News
🏦47D+Quality
⚠️40DRisk

Weighted: Technical 25% · Fundamental 20% · Growth 15% · Valuation 15% · News 10% · Quality 10% · Risk 5%

🔍 Cross-Check

Overall Score

🟡 Mixed

Technical Trend

🟢 Bullish

Insiders

🔴 Bearish

✅ Why is the score relatively high?

  • 🟢 Earnings per share (EPS) growth: 39.2%
  • 🟢 Free cash flow growth: 90.2%
  • 🟢 Net income growth: 36.4%
  • 🟢 Debt/equity: -1.18
  • 🟢 Price is above the 50-day average

⚠️ What's concerning?

  • 🔴 Estimated fair value: $40.80 vs. price $104.07 (-60.8%)
  • 🔴 Net margin: -2.5% (negative)
  • 🔴 Operating margin is eroding over time
  • 🔴 ATR: 6.5% of price
  • 🔴 Current ratio: 0.94

🚦 Quality & Risk Checks

🔴 Operating margin stability🟢 Conservative leverage🔴 Daily volatility (ATR)🟢 Leverage risk🔴 Liquidity risk

📰 News Trend

Based on real financial news (Finnhub)
🟢 Positive

Everyone's writing about Wayfair Inc.. News trend score: 100. Reason: 12 of the last 20 articles are positive, versus 1 negative.

News trend analysis is based on article sentiment only, and is not investment advice or financial counsel. Read the full disclaimer

📈 Technical Analysis

Based on the last 251 trading days, calculated from real price data. Click an indicator for details and a chart.

🟢 Most indicators support an uptrend (9 bullish · 0 bearish · 3 neutral)

Conclusions

  • 🟢Price vs. SMA 50Price is above the 50-day average
  • 🟢Price vs. SMA 200Price is above the 200-day average
  • 🟢MACDMACD histogram is positive — rising momentum
  • 🟢RSIRSI 63.3 — healthy positive momentum
  • 🟡Stochastic%K 72.7 — neutral range
  • 🟡ADX (trend strength)ADX 20.4 — weak trend/choppy
  • 🟢Volume trendRising volume supports the price advance
  • 🟢Relative strength vs. S&P 500+65.5% over the last 3 months relative to the index
  • 🟢Bollinger BandsPrice is in the upper third of the Bollinger Bands (104%B) — strong momentum (risk of a pullback)
  • 🟢ROC (rate of change)ROC 12 days: 22.6%
  • 🟢Parabolic SARPrice is above the SAR point — uptrend
  • 🟡CMF (money flow)CMF 20 days: 0.01

Wyckoff Method Analysis

A market-structure read based purely on real price and volume data — not full classic Wyckoff schematic identification (Phase A-E), but a quantitative analysis of what can reliably be computed: trading ranges, "effort vs. result", volume within the range, and Spring/Upthrust detection.

Markup

The stock is in a clear uptrend with no defined trading range in the period examined.

Low confidence

Evidence Behind This Read

  • 🟢Rising price trendA 49.6% change over the last 50 days, with no defined trading range.
  • 🔴Divergence between price and cumulative money flow (A/D Line)Price and the cumulative Accumulation/Distribution Line are moving in opposite directions — a classic Wyckoff sign that the move isn't backed by real money, and may be less stable than it looks.

The Wyckoff Method, developed by Richard Wyckoff in the early 20th century, reads the balance of supply and demand through price and volume, based on the premise that large investors ("smart money") quietly accumulate shares before rallies and quietly distribute them before declines. The read here is based solely on real price and volume data — full, precise identification of classic Wyckoff patterns (such as Phases A-E) requires human chart-reading experience and judgment, so this is an approximate algorithmic read, not a substitute for professional analysis. This should not be considered investment advice.

🎯 Trade Planning (M.A.E.E Framework)

Based on a mechanical trading method: market structure → value zone → ATR-based exit point. Not investment advice — a calculation tool only.

1️⃣ Market Structure

🟢 Uptrend

The price is above the 200-day average — per the market-structure method, this environment mainly favors looking for buying (Long) opportunities.

2️⃣ Value Zone

🟡 Price far from value zone

The price is currently far from the 50-day average — the method recommends waiting for a "pullback" before entering, rather than chasing prices.

3️⃣ Suggested Exit Point (ATR-based)

Method formula: Stop-loss = support minusone ATR margin — this way the stop adapts to the stock's actual volatility, rather than an arbitrary number.

Entry

$107.57

Stop-Loss

$59.78

Risk per Share

$47.79

Direction

Long

Profit Targets by Risk/Reward Ratio (R)

1:2 R

$203.15

1:3 R

$250.95

1:5 R

$346.53

💰 Position Size Calculator

A core principle of the method: never risk a fixed dollar amount — risk a fixed percentage of equity, and let the position size vary according to the risk per share.

Suggested Position Size

2 sh.

💰 Financial Health

Profitability

Gross Margin

30.2%

Operating Margin

0.1%

Net Margin

-2.5%

EBITDA Margin

2.6%

Efficiency

ROE

11.3%

ROA

-9.1%

ROIC

EPS

-$2.44

Balance Sheet

Cash

$1.48B

Total Debt

$3.27B

Current Ratio

0.94

Debt/Equity

-1.18

Conclusions

  • 🟡Gross marginGross margin: 30.2% — reasonable
  • 🔴Operating marginOperating margin: 0.1% — weak
  • 🔴Net marginNet margin: -2.5% (negative)
  • 🟡Return on equity (ROE)Return on equity (ROE): 11.3% — reasonable
  • 🔴Return on assets (ROA)Return on assets (ROA): -9.1% — weak
  • 🔴Current ratio (liquidity)Current ratio: 0.94
  • 🟢Debt-to-equityDebt/equity: -1.18
  • 🔴Interest coverageInterest coverage: 0.1x

🚀 Growth

Revenue

Earnings per Share (EPS)

Net Income

Free Cash Flow (FCF)

Conclusions

  • 🟡Revenue growth (last year)Revenue growth (last year): 5.1%
  • 🟢Earnings per share (EPS) growthEarnings per share (EPS) growth: 39.2%
  • 🟢Free cash flow growthFree cash flow growth: 90.2%
  • 🟢Net income growthNet income growth: 36.4%

💎 Fair Value (Valuation)

Current Price

$104.07

Estimated Fair Value (DCF)

$40.80

Gap

-60.8%

🔴 Appears expensive relative to estimated value

Show all model (DCF) assumptions →

Year 1 Growth Rate

0.7%

Discount Rate (WACC)

9.0%

Terminal Growth Rate

2.5%

Projection Years

5

YearGrowth RateProjected FCFPresent Value
10.7%$467.23M$428.65M
21.1%$472.59M$397.77M
31.6%$480.14M$370.76M
42.0%$489.98M$347.11M
52.5%$502.23M$326.41M

Base FCF (last actual year)

$464.00M

Terminal Value

$7.92B

Present Value of Terminal Value

$5.15B

Enterprise Value

$7.02B

Net Debt

$1.80B

Equity Value

$5.22B

*The DCF model is an estimate based on assumptions — not a guaranteed forecast. You can change the assumptions to examine different scenarios.

Book Value per Share

-$21.73

Tangible Book Value per Share (Tangible NAV)

-$21.74

Conclusions

  • 🔴DCF Fair ValueEstimated fair value: $40.80 vs. price $104.07 (-60.8%)
  • 🟡Tangible Net Asset Value (NAV)NAV per share: -$21.74
  • 🟡P/EP/E: -44.1

🕴️ Insider Trading

Real transactions by officers and insiders, as reported to the SEC on Form 4 — 0 purchases and 1 sales out of the last 25 filings.

NameTransaction TypeDateSharesChangePrice
Blotner JonOpen Market Sale2.7.2026117,344-5,925$96.29
Blotner JonExercise of Derivative Securities1.7.2026111,484+326
Blotner JonExercise of Derivative Securities1.7.2026111,666+182
Blotner JonExercise of Derivative Securities1.7.2026134,608+22,942
Blotner JonTax Withholding in Shares1.7.2026123,269-11,339$95.14
Blotner JonExercise of Derivative Securities1.7.2026327-326
Blotner JonExercise of Derivative Securities1.7.2026547-182
Blotner JonExercise of Derivative Securities1.7.202668,826-22,942
Gulliver KateExercise of Derivative Securities1.7.2026159,463+392
Gulliver KateExercise of Derivative Securities1.7.2026159,681+218
Gulliver KateExercise of Derivative Securities1.7.2026160,109+428
Gulliver KateExercise of Derivative Securities1.7.2026182,537+22,428
Gulliver KateTax Withholding in Shares1.7.2026171,190-11,347$95.14
Gulliver KateExercise of Derivative Securities1.7.2026392-392
Gulliver KateExercise of Derivative Securities1.7.2026657-218
Gulliver KateExercise of Derivative Securities1.7.20261,284-428
Gulliver KateExercise of Derivative Securities1.7.202667,286-22,428
Tan FionaExercise of Derivative Securities1.7.202612,564+1,198
Tan FionaExercise of Derivative Securities1.7.202639,637+27,073
Tan FionaTax Withholding in Shares1.7.202625,280-14,357$95.14
Tan FionaExercise of Derivative Securities1.7.20263,597-1,198
Tan FionaExercise of Derivative Securities1.7.202681,219-27,073
Tan FionaGrant/Award from Employer1.5.2026108,292+108,292
Gulliver KateGrant/Award from Employer1.5.202689,714+89,714
Blotner JonGrant/Award from Employer1.5.202691,768+91,768

📉 Short Interest

Official FINRA data — the number of shares open in short positions, plus daily short-sale activity.

Monthly Trend — Open Short Interest

-1.0%

14,747,320 shares short as of 2026-07-15 · vs. 14,900,779 on 2026-06-30

Official biweekly report (FINRA Rule 4560) — no real higher-frequency data exists for this metric.

Weekly Trend — Daily Short-Sale Activity

+2.6%

49.2% of trading volume this week was short selling, vs. 48.0% the prior week

Based on daily short-sale volume (Reg SHO) — a different metric from the open short interest above: this is daily trading volume, not an open position, so it updates weekly rather than biweekly.

📰 News & Sentiment

Sentiment based on basic keywords (not AI) — 12 positive, 7 neutral, 1 negative out of the last 20 articles.