Analyzing the stock…
70
Gathering technical, fundamental, and market data — a few seconds
· ·
$2.90
▼ $0.03 (-1.0%)
Market data updated: 09/27 06:13 PM
Fundamentals updated: 09/27/2026
News analyzed: 09/27/2026
Market Cap
$117.44M
Day Range
$2.86 - $3.00
52-Week Range
$2.23 - $5.38
Beta
—
Next Earnings
04.11.2026
Support
$2.82
Resistance
$4.49
+14.2% (1Y)
Strengths: 4/23 factors positiveRisk: High
This score and all analysis on this page are for informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. Read the full disclaimer
Weighted: Technical 25% · Fundamental 20% · Growth 15% · Valuation 15% · News 10% · Quality 10% · Risk 5%
Overall Score
🔴 Bearish
Technical Trend
🔴 Bearish
Insiders
🔴 Bearish
Computed directly from the same signals behind the score above — not AI-generated.
Biggest positive driver
Earnings per share (EPS) growth
Earnings per share (EPS) growth: 71.2%
Growth
Biggest negative driver
Daily volatility (ATR)
ATR: 8.1% of price
Risk
What to watch next
When today echoes the past.
NO RELIABLE ECHO FOUND
Only 2 historical analog(s) found after removing overlapping dates — too few for a statistically meaningful comparison.
Historical matches considered: 2
TIME ECHO identifies historical situations that resemble the current market state. Historical outcomes are not guarantees of future performance. Similarity does not imply causation, and results may change as new data becomes available.
🗓️ What Changed This Week
🌱 Building History
We don't have a real data point from a week ago for this stock yet. The weekly comparison will appear once enough history has accumulated.
📊 Score History
38
Today
—
30D
—
90D
—
1Y
🐂🐻 Investment Thesis
🐂 Bull Case
🐻 Bear Case
🔍 What Could Prove This Wrong
This isn't a price-direction forecast — just a synthesis of real, already-computed data, and future conditions that could change the picture.
🧬 STOCK DNA
This stock's profile across 8 real dimensions — a research tool, not a recommendation
Growth
46
Quality
No data available
Value
55
Momentum
10
Risk
40
Sentiment
50
Fundamental
46
Institutional
0
Stocks with a similar DNA right now
This stock hasn't been analyzed by StockIQAI's movement engine yet — coverage is still expanding. Check back soon.
Recent media coverage of OnKure Therapeutics has centered on its financial performance and strategic initiatives. The company reported improved second-quarter 2026 earnings, with narrower losses per share than expected, alongside a $100 million at-the-market stock offering to bolster liquidity. Analysts, including Oppenheimer’s Leland Gershell, maintained an "Outperform" rating but adjusted their price target downward. Additionally, OnKure highlighted its focus on allosteric PI3Kα drugs as potential 2027 investigational new drug (IND) candidates, emphasizing selectivity and pan-mutant inhibition in upcoming discussions. The company also participated in industry conferences, including Morgan Stanley’s Global Healthcare event.
AI summary based on English-language news sources only — not investment advice.
Everyone's writing about OnKure Therapeutics, Inc.. News trend score: 50. Reason: The mix of positive and negative articles is balanced — 1 vs. 1 out of the last 8 articles.
News trend analysis is based on article sentiment only, and is not investment advice or financial counsel. Read the full disclaimer
🌡️ Emotional Temperature
29
🎯 Conviction (vs. Emotion)
50
Psychology
82
Fundamentals
46
Technical
10
Valuation
55
A significant decline over time, but on unusually low trading volume — holders unwilling to accept the loss.
The price is holding at a real, documented historical support/resistance level (a 50-day high or low).
A sharp drop, unusual volume, and negative news sentiment all at once — selling pressure that looks emotional.
Price, volume, and sentiment accelerating together — a sign investors are chasing the price, not just following it.
The stock is moving in lockstep with its peers at the same intensity, rather than on its own data.
Price (3M)
-36%
Market Narrative
33
Fundamental Reality
50
Narrative Gap
-17
🔀 Psychology Acceleration
News attention/sentiment is running well ahead of the price move itself.
🧠 StockIQ Psychologist
The market behavior for OKUR suggests a dominant loss aversion bias, as evidenced by the pronounced 3-month decline (-14.6%) and subdued trading volume. Investors may be hesitant to crystallize losses, despite neutral momentum and sentiment, creating a cautious holding pattern. The narrative gap (-17) further implies a disconnect between market perception (lower) and reality (higher), possibly reinforcing reluctance to act. The key open question is whether the stock will break free from this inertia or remain anchored near support levels. Low panic selling (31) and no FOMO (0) suggest no extreme behavioral extremes are present.
Updated: 09/07/2026, 07:29 AM
What could change this?
👥 What the crowd believes
"Oppenheimer analyst Leland Gershell reiterates OnKure Therapeutics with an Outperform but lowers the price target from $30 to $14."
"reported quarterly losses of $(0.31) per share which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $(0.54) by 41.51 percent. This is a 72.81 percent increase over losses of $(1.14) per share"
"OnKure Therapeutics to host virtual KOL event to discuss PI3Kα Inhibitor Medicines"
"OnKure Therapeutics Announces Registration Of Up To $100M At-The-Market Offering Of Class A Common Stock"
Signal classification confidence: High (confidence in the behavioral read, not a price prediction). Describes observable market behavior, not what any individual investor thinks, and is not a buy/sell signal.
🏛️ Investor DNA — Historical Investors
A Historical Strategy Simulation: assuming each investor follows their documented principles, how would they rate this stock today? This is not a prediction of what they would actually do.
🟢 Best match
Benjamin Graham — 100/100
🔴 Weakest match
Morgan Housel — 8/100
🗣️ Why do they disagree?
This stock sparks a sharp divide between methodologies that prioritize defensive, structural, or cyclical strength and those that flag volatility, risk, or insufficient data. Benjamin Graham’s *Defensive Investor* and Peter Lynch’s lack of growth data (despite a perfect score) suggest a baseline of stability and liquidity, while Charles Mackay and Walter Bagehot’s unanimous approval underscores its resilience to speculative bubbles or credit shocks. Meanwhile, cycle-focused thinkers like Samuel Armstrong Nelson and Howard Marks (Market Cycle) see it as favorably positioned, reinforcing a mid-cycle optimism. However, the sharp contrast with risk-averse voices like Gerald M. Loeb—who warns of capital-threatening volatility—and Jesse Livermore—who dismisses it as counter-trend—highlights deep disagreements over risk tolerance. Even passive advocates like Malkiel/Bogle and Fisher dismiss it outright, either for lacking fundamental depth or being too unpredictable, while Veblen’s critique hints at speculative overreach. The debate hinges on whether the stock’s liquidity and cyclical tailwinds outweigh its volatility or if its uncertainty makes it a gamble rather than a disciplined bet.
Benjamin Graham
Security Analysis (1934) / The Intelligent Investor (1949)
🟢 100
Attractive to a Defensive Graham Investor
Key question
Where is my margin of safety?
⚠️ Partial data for this stock — score is less reliable — Data availability: 35%
Fact → Principle → Simulation
Peter Lynch
One Up on Wall Street (1989)
🟢 100
Not enough growth data for a real Lynch read
Key question
Is the growth worth the price?
⚠️ Partial data for this stock — score is less reliable — Data availability: 25%
Fact → Principle → Simulation
Charles Mackay
Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds (1841)
🟢 100
No obvious signs of crowd mania
Key question
Am I being swept along with the crowd, or thinking for myself?
Fact → Principle → Simulation
Walter Bagehot
Lombard Street (1873)
🟢 100
Strong liquidity — would likely survive a real credit squeeze
Key question
Does this company have enough liquidity to survive real stress?
Fact → Principle → Simulation
Howard Marks (Market Cycle)
Mastering the Market Cycle (2018)
🟢 100
Looks early-to-mid cycle, not overextended
Key question
Where are we in the cycle right now — near a hot extreme, or a cold one?
Fact → Principle → Simulation
Samuel Armstrong Nelson
The ABC of Stock Speculation (1903)
🟢 96
Cycle position looks favorable — closer to oversold than overbought
Key question
Is the price overextended, or is there still room to move?
Fact → Principle → Simulation
Benjamin Graham (Enterprising Investor)
The Intelligent Investor (1949) — the Enterprising Investor chapters
🟢 93
Deep statistical discount — a real Enterprising Investor candidate
Key question
Is the stock statistically cheap enough to justify the extra risk?
⚠️ Partial data for this stock — score is less reliable — Data availability: 45%
Fact → Principle → Simulation
Howard Marks
The Most Important Thing (2011) / Mastering the Market Cycle (2018)
🟢 72
Risk appears reasonably priced — no obvious cycle-timing red flag
Key question
What is the market probably misunderstanding about the risk here?
Fact → Principle → Simulation
Jack Schwager
Market Wizards (1989)
🟡 48
No clear edge either way
Key question
What's the risk/reward here, and where is my exit point?
Fact → Principle → Simulation
Gerald M. Loeb
The Battle for Investment Survival (1935)
🟡 39
Risk profile Loeb would flag as a real threat to capital
Key question
How much capital could I lose here if I'm wrong?
Fact → Principle → Simulation
Burton Malkiel & John Bogle
A Random Walk Down Wall Street (1973) / The Little Book of Common Sense Investing (2007)
🔴 33
Weak case — Malkiel/Bogle would say a low-cost index is the simpler bet
Key question
Do I actually have an edge here, or do I just think I do?
Fact → Principle → Simulation
Edgar Lawrence Smith
Common Stocks as Long-Term Investments (1924)
🔴 15
Not enough dividend/growth data for a real Smith read
Key question
Is this a stock I'd be happy to hold and forget about for a decade?
⚠️ Partial data for this stock — score is less reliable — Data availability: 25%
Fact → Principle → Simulation
Thorstein Veblen
The Theory of Business Enterprise (1904)
🔴 13
Pattern Veblen would flag as growth pursued for its own sake
Key question
Is management building real value, or just building itself?
⚠️ Partial data for this stock — score is less reliable — Data availability: 45%
Fact → Principle → Simulation
Jesse Livermore
Reminiscences of a Stock Operator (1923) / How to Trade in Stocks (1940)
🔴 8
Negative trend — against Livermore's core rule of trading with the trend
Key question
What is the price telling me right now?
Fact → Principle → Simulation
Morgan Housel
The Psychology of Money (2020)
🔴 8
The kind of volatility that tends to shake patient holders out
Key question
Could I live with this volatility long enough for compounding to actually work?
Fact → Principle → Simulation
Philip Fisher
Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits (1958)
🔴 0
Not enough fundamentals data for a real Fisher read
Key question
How exceptional is this business, really?
⚠️ Partial data for this stock — score is less reliable — Data availability: 20%
Fact → Principle → Simulation
Based on the last 285 trading days, calculated from real price data. Click an indicator for details and a chart.
🔴 Most indicators support a downtrend (0 bullish · 10 bearish · 1 neutral)
A market-structure read based purely on real price and volume data — not full classic Wyckoff schematic identification (Phase A-E), but a quantitative analysis of what can reliably be computed: trading ranges, "effort vs. result", volume within the range, and Spring/Upthrust detection.
The stock is in a clear downtrend with no defined trading range in the period examined.
Medium confidence
The Wyckoff Method, developed by Richard Wyckoff in the early 20th century, reads the balance of supply and demand through price and volume, based on the premise that large investors ("smart money") quietly accumulate shares before rallies and quietly distribute them before declines. The read here is based solely on real price and volume data — full, precise identification of classic Wyckoff patterns (such as Phases A-E) requires human chart-reading experience and judgment, so this is an approximate algorithmic read, not a substitute for professional analysis. This should not be considered investment advice.
Gross Margin
—
Operating Margin
—
Net Margin
—
EBITDA Margin
—
ROE
-105.9%
ROA
-95.8%
ROIC
—
EPS
-$4.40
Cash
$59.05M
Total Debt
—
Current Ratio
10.28
Debt/Equity
—
How is Fair Value calculated? →
Current Price
$2.90
Estimated Fair Value (DCF)
-$71.60
Model estimate — not a price target. Highly sensitive to growth/discount-rate assumptions.
Gap
⚠️ Extreme
Model output is extreme — likely a data/model limitation for this stock, not a reliable fair-value read.
Year 1 Growth Rate
10.0%
Discount Rate (WACC)
9.0%
Terminal Growth Rate
2.5%
Projection Years
5
| Year | Growth Rate | Projected FCF | Present Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10.0% | $-57.06M | $-52.35M |
| 2 | 8.1% | $-61.70M | $-51.93M |
| 3 | 6.3% | $-65.55M | $-50.62M |
| 4 | 4.4% | $-68.42M | $-48.47M |
| 5 | 2.5% | $-70.13M | $-45.58M |
Base FCF (last actual year)
$-51.87M
Terminal Value
$-1.11B
Present Value of Terminal Value
$-718.78M
Enterprise Value
$-967.73M
Net Debt
$0
Equity Value
$-967.73M
*The DCF model is an estimate based on assumptions — not a guaranteed forecast. You can change the assumptions to examine different scenarios.
Book Value per Share
$4.16
Tangible Book Value per Share (Tangible NAV)
$4.16
Sentiment based on basic keywords (not AI) — 1 positive, 6 neutral, 1 negative out of the last 8 articles.
GlobeNewswire · 31.8.2026
Benzinga · 14.8.2026
SeekingAlpha · 10.8.2026
GlobeNewswire · 4.8.2026
Benzinga · 4.8.2026
Benzinga · 4.8.2026
MarketBeat · 15.7.2026
GlobeNewswire · 2.7.2026
OnKure Therapeutics, Inc. (OKUR) currently has a StockIQ AI score of 38/100, rated "Weak" (a partial score — based on only 6 of 7 categories, some data is currently unavailable). The score is a weighted average across up to 7 categories (technical, fundamental, growth, fair value, news, quality, risk), based on real data only.
OKUR currently scores 38/100 (Weak) across the categories we measure (a partial score — based on only 6 of 7 categories, some data is currently unavailable). StockIQ doesn't give buy/sell recommendations — use this as one data point in your own research, not as investment advice.
OKUR's technical score is 10/100, which currently reads as bearish — based on real price/volume signals (moving averages, RSI, MACD, and more), not a prediction of what happens next.
Based on the real signals StockIQ computed: Earnings per share (EPS) growth: 71.2%; Current ratio: 10.28; NAV per share: $4.16.
Based on the real signals StockIQ computed: ATR: 8.1% of price; Calmar: -0.68 (3y annualized return -66.4% / max drawdown 97.8%); Return on equity (ROE): -105.9% (negative).
StockIQ has no recorded dividend payment history for OKUR.
Real transactions by officers and insiders, as reported to the SEC on Form 4 — 0 purchases and 2 sales out of the last 25 filings.
| Name | Transaction Type | Date | Shares | Change | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leverone Jason A. | Open Market Sale | 21.9.2026 | 18,500 | -302 | $2.97 |
| Saccomano Nicholas A | Open Market Sale | 21.9.2026 | 11,160 | -87 | $2.97 |
| Agresta Samuel | Disposition to the Company | 7.8.2026 | 131,396 | -131,396 | — |
| Agresta Samuel | Grant/Award from Employer | 7.8.2026 | 131,396 | +131,396 | — |
| Agresta Samuel | Grant/Award from Employer | 7.8.2026 | 18,588 | +18,588 | — |
| Agresta Samuel | Disposition to the Company | 7.8.2026 | 18,588 | -18,588 | — |
| Agresta Samuel | Grant/Award from Employer | 7.8.2026 | 50,000 | +50,000 | — |
| Phillips Andrew John | Grant/Award from Employer | 7.8.2026 | 22,350 | +22,350 | — |
| Hartley Dylan | Grant/Award from Employer | 7.8.2026 | 50,000 | +50,000 | — |
| Leverone Jason A. | Grant/Award from Employer | 7.8.2026 | 5,781 | +5,781 | — |
| Leverone Jason A. | Disposition to the Company | 7.8.2026 | 5,322 | -5,322 | — |
| Leverone Jason A. | Disposition to the Company | 7.8.2026 | 130,611 | -130,611 | — |
| Hartley Dylan | Grant/Award from Employer | 7.8.2026 | 137,603 | +137,603 | — |
| Saccomano Nicholas A | Disposition to the Company | 7.8.2026 | 8,449 | -8,449 | — |
| Saccomano Nicholas A | Grant/Award from Employer | 7.8.2026 | 16,898 | +16,898 | — |
| Manke Isaac | Grant/Award from Employer | 7.8.2026 | 300,000 | +300,000 | — |
| Jansen Valerie Malyvanh | Grant/Award from Employer | 7.8.2026 | 22,350 | +22,350 | — |
| Saccomano Nicholas A | Disposition to the Company | 7.8.2026 | 1,485 | -1,485 | — |
| Hartley Dylan | Disposition to the Company | 7.8.2026 | 137,603 | -137,603 | — |
| Saccomano Nicholas A | Disposition to the Company | 7.8.2026 | 16,898 | -16,898 | — |
| Saccomano Nicholas A | Disposition to the Company | 7.8.2026 | 542,232 | -542,232 | — |
| Leverone Jason A. | Grant/Award from Employer | 7.8.2026 | 50,000 | +50,000 | — |
| Leverone Jason A. | Disposition to the Company | 7.8.2026 | 5,781 | -5,781 | — |
| Saccomano Nicholas A | Grant/Award from Employer | 7.8.2026 | 8,449 | +8,449 | — |
| Saccomano Nicholas A | Grant/Award from Employer | 7.8.2026 | 1,485 | +1,485 | — |
Official FINRA data — the number of shares open in short positions, plus daily short-sale activity.
1,375,252 shares short as of 2026-09-15 · vs. 1,322,151 on 2026-08-31
Official biweekly report (FINRA Rule 4560) — no real higher-frequency data exists for this metric.
54.9% of trading volume this week was short selling, vs. 50.4% the prior week
Based on daily short-sale volume (Reg SHO) — a different metric from the open short interest above: this is daily trading volume, not an open position, so it updates weekly rather than biweekly.
Full breakdown of every data type and its source: Data Sources · Methodology