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MDGL

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc. Common Stock

Health Care · ·

$510.36

▼ $3.76 (-0.7%)

Market Cap

$11.79B

Day Range

$509.00 - $524.45

52-Week Range

$333.24 - $615.00

Beta

—

Next Earnings

02.11.2026

MDGL is a stock from the Healthcare sector — Pharmaceuticals, biotech, medical devices, and health insurance — less sensitive to economic cycles, but exposed to regulation and FDA approvals.

🏢 Similar Stocks in the Same Sector

AAPG

Ascentage Pharma Group International - American Depository

AARD

Aardvark Therapeutics, Inc.

ABCL

AbCellera Biologics Inc. - Common

+52.1% (1Y)

Investor Score
52/ 100C-
🟡 Moderate

This score and all analysis on this page are for informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. Read the full disclaimer

📈40DTechnical
💰30FFundamental
🚀82A-Growth
💎38FValuation
📰100A+News
🏦58CQuality
⚠️48D+Risk

Weighted: Technical 25% · Fundamental 20% · Growth 15% · Valuation 15% · News 10% · Quality 10% · Risk 5%

🔍 Cross-Check

Overall Score

🟡 Mixed

Technical Trend

🔴 Bearish

Insiders

🔴 Bearish

✅ Why is the score relatively high?

  • 🟢 SMA 50 recently crossed above SMA 200
  • 🟢 Revenue growth (last year): 432.1%
  • 🟢 Earnings per share (EPS) growth: 41.3%
  • 🟢 Free cash flow growth: 58.4%
  • 🟢 Net income growth: 38.1%

⚠️ What's concerning?

  • 🔴 Estimated fair value: -$222.42 vs. price $510.36 (-143.6%)
  • 🔴 Operating margin: -31.3% (negative)
  • 🔴 Net margin: -30.1% (negative)
  • 🔴 ATR: 5.1% of price
  • 🔴 Return on equity (ROE): -47.8% (negative)

🚦 Quality & Risk Checks

🟢 Operating margin stability🟡 Conservative leverage🔴 Daily volatility (ATR)🟡 Leverage risk🟢 Liquidity risk

📰 News Trend

Based on real financial news (Finnhub)
🟢 Positive

Everyone's writing about Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc. Common Stock. News trend score: 100. Reason: 15 of the last 20 articles are positive, versus 2 negative.

🔴 Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Announces Grants of Inducement Awards under Nasdaq Listing Rule 5635(c)(4) — Yahoo🟢 Madrigal Pharmaceuticals to Participate in the Canaccord Genuity 45th Annual Growth Conference — Yahoo🟢 Madrigal Pharmaceuticals: Semaglutide Launch No Issue, Wise Pipeline Approach — SeekingAlpha

News trend analysis is based on article sentiment only, and is not investment advice or financial counsel. Read the full disclaimer

📈 Technical Analysis

Based on the last 251 trading days, calculated from real price data. Click an indicator for details and a chart.

🔴 Most indicators support a downtrend (3 bullish · 7 bearish · 2 neutral)

Conclusions

  • 🔴Price vs. SMA 50 — Price is below the 50-day average
  • 🟢Price vs. SMA 200 — Price is above the 200-day average
  • 🟢Golden Cross — SMA 50 recently crossed above SMA 200
  • 🔴MACD — MACD histogram is negative — falling momentum
  • 🔴RSI — RSI 47.8 — weak/negative bias
  • 🟡Stochastic — %K 56.3 — neutral range
  • 🟡ADX (trend strength) — ADX 21.8 — weak trend/choppy
  • 🔴Relative strength vs. S&P 500 — -2.4% over the last 3 months relative to the index
  • 🔴Bollinger Bands — Price is in the lower third of the Bollinger Bands (33%B) — weakness (chance of a recovery)
  • 🔴ROC (rate of change) — ROC 12 days: -4.0%
  • 🔴Parabolic SAR — Price is below the SAR point — downtrend
  • 🟢CMF (money flow) — CMF 20 days: 0.14

Wyckoff Method Analysis

A market-structure read based purely on real price and volume data — not full classic Wyckoff schematic identification (Phase A-E), but a quantitative analysis of what can reliably be computed: trading ranges, "effort vs. result", volume within the range, and Spring/Upthrust detection.

Markdown

The stock is in a clear downtrend with no defined trading range in the period examined.

Low confidence

Evidence Behind This Read

  • 🔴Falling price trend — A -1.9% change over the last 50 days, with no defined trading range.
  • 🔴Divergence between price and cumulative money flow (A/D Line) — Price and the cumulative Accumulation/Distribution Line are moving in opposite directions — a classic Wyckoff sign that the move isn't backed by real money, and may be less stable than it looks.
  • 🟢Bar with selling-climax characteristics — On 2026-07-30: volume 5.2x the average and a spread 3.0x wider, with a close suggesting counter-absorption.

The Wyckoff Method, developed by Richard Wyckoff in the early 20th century, reads the balance of supply and demand through price and volume, based on the premise that large investors ("smart money") quietly accumulate shares before rallies and quietly distribute them before declines. The read here is based solely on real price and volume data — full, precise identification of classic Wyckoff patterns (such as Phases A-E) requires human chart-reading experience and judgment, so this is an approximate algorithmic read, not a substitute for professional analysis. This should not be considered investment advice.

🎯 Trade Planning (M.A.E.E Framework)

Based on a mechanical trading method: market structure → value zone → ATR-based exit point. Not investment advice — a calculation tool only.

1️⃣ Market Structure

🟡 Range

The price is oscillating around the 200-day average with no clear direction — the method recommends great caution here (buying at the bottom of the range / selling at the top) or avoiding trading altogether.

2️⃣ Value Zone

🟢 Price in value zone

The price is close to the 50-day moving average — per the method, this is a reasonable area to look for an entry, rather than chasing the price far from it.

In a range, the method doesn't give a single directional stop point — the market currently lacks a clear direction, consider waiting for a breakout from the range.

💰 Financial Health

Profitability

Gross Margin

—

Operating Margin

-31.3%

Net Margin

-30.1%

EBITDA Margin

-31.2%

Efficiency

ROE

-47.8%

ROA

-22.9%

ROIC

—

EPS

-$12.85

Balance Sheet

Cash

$198.69M

Total Debt

$339.88M

Current Ratio

4.01

Debt/Equity

0.56

Conclusions

  • 🔴Operating margin — Operating margin: -31.3% (negative)
  • 🔴Net margin — Net margin: -30.1% (negative)
  • 🔴Return on equity (ROE) — Return on equity (ROE): -47.8% (negative)
  • 🔴Return on assets (ROA) — Return on assets (ROA): -22.9% — weak
  • 🟢Current ratio (liquidity) — Current ratio: 4.01
  • 🟡Debt-to-equity — Debt/equity: 0.56

🚀 Growth

Revenue

Earnings per Share (EPS)

Net Income

Free Cash Flow (FCF)

Conclusions

  • 🟢Revenue growth (last year) — Revenue growth (last year): 432.1%
  • 🟢Earnings per share (EPS) growth — Earnings per share (EPS) growth: 41.3%
  • 🟢Free cash flow growth — Free cash flow growth: 58.4%
  • 🟢Net income growth — Net income growth: 38.1%

💎 Fair Value (Valuation)

Current Price

$510.36

Estimated Fair Value (DCF)

-$222.42

Gap

-143.6%

🔴 Appears expensive relative to estimated value

Show all model (DCF) assumptions →

Year 1 Growth Rate

25.0%

Discount Rate (WACC)

9.0%

Terminal Growth Rate

2.5%

Projection Years

5

YearGrowth RateProjected FCFPresent Value
125.0%$-237.53M$-217.91M
219.4%$-283.55M$-238.65M
313.8%$-322.53M$-249.05M
48.1%$-348.74M$-247.06M
52.5%$-357.46M$-232.32M

Base FCF (last actual year)

$-190.02M

Terminal Value

$-5.64B

Present Value of Terminal Value

$-3.66B

Enterprise Value

$-4.85B

Net Debt

$141.19M

Equity Value

$-4.99B

*The DCF model is an estimate based on assumptions — not a guaranteed forecast. You can change the assumptions to examine different scenarios.

Book Value per Share

$26.86

Tangible Book Value per Share (Tangible NAV)

$26.54

Conclusions

  • 🔴DCF Fair Value — Estimated fair value: -$222.42 vs. price $510.36 (-143.6%)
  • 🟡Tangible Net Asset Value (NAV) — NAV per share: $26.54
  • 🟡P/E — P/E: -40.0

🕴️ Insider Trading

Real transactions by officers and insiders, as reported to the SEC on Form 4 — 0 purchases and 10 sales out of the last 25 filings.

NameTransaction TypeDateSharesChangePrice
Sibold William JohnOpen Market Sale20.7.2026211,689-140$542.75
Sibold William JohnOpen Market Sale20.7.2026211,579-110$543.79
Sibold William JohnOpen Market Sale20.7.2026211,034-545$544.71
Sibold William JohnOpen Market Sale20.7.2026210,759-275$545.71
Sibold William JohnOpen Market Sale20.7.2026210,490-269$547.08
Sibold William JohnOpen Market Sale20.7.2026209,810-680$547.70
Sibold William JohnOpen Market Sale20.7.2026209,763-47$548.87
Sibold William JohnOpen Market Sale20.7.2026209,610-153$550.01
Sibold William JohnOpen Market Sale20.7.2026209,609-1$550.72
Sibold William JohnOpen Market Sale20.7.2026209,329-280$555.05
Sibold William JohnExercise of Derivative Securities17.7.2026211,829+50,000—
Sibold William JohnExercise of Derivative Securities17.7.20260-50,000—
BAKER JULIANGrant/Award from Employer17.6.2026203,721+908—
BAKER JULIANGrant/Award from Employer17.6.20261,948,876+908—
BAKER JULIANGrant/Award from Employer17.6.20261,532+1,532—
Brennan Daniel J.Grant/Award from Employer17.6.20261,371+404—
Brennan Daniel J.Grant/Award from Employer17.6.2026681+681—
Daly James MGrant/Award from Employer17.6.20263,081+454—
Daly James MGrant/Award from Employer17.6.2026766+766—
FOUSE JACQUALYN AGrant/Award from Employer17.6.20261,551+454—
FOUSE JACQUALYN AGrant/Award from Employer17.6.2026766+766—
Levy Richard SGrant/Award from Employer17.6.202622,469+454—
Levy Richard SGrant/Award from Employer17.6.2026766+766—
Taub RebeccaGrant/Award from Employer17.6.2026452,667+454—
Taub RebeccaGrant/Award from Employer17.6.2026766+766—

📉 Short Interest

Official FINRA data — the number of shares open in short positions, plus daily short-sale activity.

Monthly Trend — Open Short Interest

↓-41.5%

2,062,862 shares short as of 2026-07-15 · vs. 3,526,539 on 2026-06-30

Official biweekly report (FINRA Rule 4560) — no real higher-frequency data exists for this metric.

Weekly Trend — Daily Short-Sale Activity

↑+5.3%

54.5% of trading volume this week was short selling, vs. 51.8% the prior week

Based on daily short-sale volume (Reg SHO) — a different metric from the open short interest above: this is daily trading volume, not an open position, so it updates weekly rather than biweekly.

📰 News & Sentiment

Sentiment based on basic keywords (not AI) — 15 positive, 3 neutral, 2 negative out of the last 20 articles.