GEVO
Gevo Inc. Common StockIndustrials · ·
$1.44
▼ $0.09 (-5.9%)
Market Cap
$356.02M
Day Range
$1.40 - $1.59
52-Week Range
$1.12 - $2.97
Beta
—
Next Earnings
09.11.2026
GEVO is a stock from the Industrials sector — Manufacturing, aerospace, defense, and infrastructure — closely tied to capital-investment cycles and economic growth.
🏢 Similar Stocks in the Same Sector
+30.8% (1Y)
This score and all analysis on this page are for informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. Read the full disclaimer
Weighted: Technical 25% · Fundamental 20% · Growth 15% · Valuation 15% · News 10% · Quality 10% · Risk 5%
🔍 Cross-Check
Overall Score
🔴 Bearish
Technical Trend
🔴 Bearish
Insiders
🔴 Bearish
✅ Why is the score relatively high?
- 🟢 Revenue growth (last year): 849.3%
- 🟢 Earnings per share (EPS) growth: 58.8%
- 🟢 Free cash flow growth: 59.9%
- 🟢 Net income growth: 57.0%
- 🟢 Operating margin is stable or improving over time
⚠️ What's concerning?
- 🔴 Estimated fair value: -$5.10 vs. price $1.44 (-454.3%)
- 🔴 Operating margin: -12.6% (negative)
- 🔴 Net margin: -21.1% (negative)
- 🔴 ATR: 6.8% of price
- 🔴 Return on equity (ROE): -7.3% (negative)
🚦 Quality & Risk Checks
📰 News Trend
Based on real financial news (Finnhub)Everyone's writing about Gevo Inc. Common Stock. News trend score: 56. Reason: 1 of the last 1 articles are positive, versus 0 negative.
News trend analysis is based on article sentiment only, and is not investment advice or financial counsel. Read the full disclaimer
📈 Technical Analysis
Based on the last 251 trading days, calculated from real price data. Click an indicator for details and a chart.
🔴 Most indicators support a downtrend (0 bullish · 8 bearish · 2 neutral)
Conclusions
- 🔴Price vs. SMA 50 — Price is below the 50-day average
- 🔴Price vs. SMA 200 — Price is below the 200-day average
- 🔴MACD — MACD histogram is negative — falling momentum
- 🔴RSI — RSI 48.3 — weak/negative bias
- 🟡Stochastic — %K 25.0 — neutral range
- 🟡ADX (trend strength) — ADX 17.4 — weak trend/choppy
- 🔴Relative strength vs. S&P 500 — -31.5% over the last 3 months relative to the index
- 🔴ROC (rate of change) — ROC 12 days: -11.0%
- 🔴Parabolic SAR — Price is below the SAR point — downtrend
- 🔴CMF (money flow) — CMF 20 days: -0.06
Wyckoff Method Analysis
A market-structure read based purely on real price and volume data — not full classic Wyckoff schematic identification (Phase A-E), but a quantitative analysis of what can reliably be computed: trading ranges, "effort vs. result", volume within the range, and Spring/Upthrust detection.
The stock is in a clear downtrend with no defined trading range in the period examined.
Low confidence
Evidence Behind This Read
- 🔴Falling price trend — A -13.6% change over the last 50 days, with no defined trading range.
- 🔴Divergence between price and cumulative money flow (A/D Line) — Price and the cumulative Accumulation/Distribution Line are moving in opposite directions — a classic Wyckoff sign that the move isn't backed by real money, and may be less stable than it looks.
The Wyckoff Method, developed by Richard Wyckoff in the early 20th century, reads the balance of supply and demand through price and volume, based on the premise that large investors ("smart money") quietly accumulate shares before rallies and quietly distribute them before declines. The read here is based solely on real price and volume data — full, precise identification of classic Wyckoff patterns (such as Phases A-E) requires human chart-reading experience and judgment, so this is an approximate algorithmic read, not a substitute for professional analysis. This should not be considered investment advice.
🎯 Trade Planning (M.A.E.E Framework)
Based on a mechanical trading method: market structure → value zone → ATR-based exit point. Not investment advice — a calculation tool only.
1️⃣ Market Structure
🔴 Downtrend
The price is below the 200-day average — an environment that mainly favors looking for selling (Short) opportunities, not buying.
2️⃣ Value Zone
🟢 Price in value zone
The price is close to the 50-day moving average — per the method, this is a reasonable area to look for an entry, rather than chasing the price far from it.
3️⃣ Suggested Exit Point (ATR-based)
Method formula: Stop-loss = resistance plusone ATR margin — this way the stop adapts to the stock's actual volatility, rather than an arbitrary number.
Entry
$1.53
Stop-Loss
$2.03
Risk per Share
$0.50
Direction
Short
Profit Targets by Risk/Reward Ratio (R)
1:2 R
$0.52
1:3 R
$0.02
1:5 R
-$0.99
💰 Position Size Calculator
A core principle of the method: never risk a fixed dollar amount — risk a fixed percentage of equity, and let the position size vary according to the risk per share.
Suggested Position Size
198 sh.
💰 Financial Health
Profitability
Gross Margin
—
Operating Margin
-12.6%
Net Margin
-21.1%
EBITDA Margin
3.2%
Efficiency
ROE
-7.3%
ROA
-4.7%
ROIC
—
EPS
-$0.14
Balance Sheet
Cash
$81.16M
Total Debt
$164.75M
Current Ratio
1.82
Debt/Equity
0.35
Conclusions
- 🔴Operating margin — Operating margin: -12.6% (negative)
- 🔴Net margin — Net margin: -21.1% (negative)
- 🔴Return on equity (ROE) — Return on equity (ROE): -7.3% (negative)
- 🔴Return on assets (ROA) — Return on assets (ROA): -4.7% — weak
- 🟢Current ratio (liquidity) — Current ratio: 1.82
- 🟢Debt-to-equity — Debt/equity: 0.35
🚀 Growth
Revenue
Earnings per Share (EPS)
Net Income
Free Cash Flow (FCF)
Conclusions
- 🟢Revenue growth (last year) — Revenue growth (last year): 849.3%
- 🟢Earnings per share (EPS) growth — Earnings per share (EPS) growth: 58.8%
- 🟢Free cash flow growth — Free cash flow growth: 59.9%
- 🟢Net income growth — Net income growth: 57.0%
💎 Fair Value (Valuation)
Current Price
$1.44
Estimated Fair Value (DCF)
-$5.10
Gap
-454.3%
🔴 Appears expensive relative to estimated value
Show all model (DCF) assumptions →
Year 1 Growth Rate
25.0%
Discount Rate (WACC)
9.0%
Terminal Growth Rate
2.5%
Projection Years
5
| Year | Growth Rate | Projected FCF | Present Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 25.0% | $-54.39M | $-49.90M |
| 2 | 19.4% | $-64.93M | $-54.65M |
| 3 | 13.8% | $-73.86M | $-57.03M |
| 4 | 8.1% | $-79.86M | $-56.57M |
| 5 | 2.5% | $-81.86M | $-53.20M |
Base FCF (last actual year)
$-43.51M
Terminal Value
$-1.29B
Present Value of Terminal Value
$-838.94M
Enterprise Value
$-1.11B
Net Debt
$83.59M
Equity Value
$-1.19B
*The DCF model is an estimate based on assumptions — not a guaranteed forecast. You can change the assumptions to examine different scenarios.
Book Value per Share
$1.99
Tangible Book Value per Share (Tangible NAV)
$1.40
Conclusions
- 🔴DCF Fair Value — Estimated fair value: -$5.10 vs. price $1.44 (-454.3%)
- 🟡Tangible Net Asset Value (NAV) — NAV per share: $1.40
- 🟡P/E — P/E: -10.9
🕴️ Insider Trading
Real transactions by officers and insiders, as reported to the SEC on Form 4 — 0 purchases and 13 sales out of the last 25 filings.
| Name | Transaction Type | Date | Shares | Change | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gruber Patrick R. | Open Market Sale | 12.6.2026 | 3,571,430 | -157,563 | $1.40 |
| Ryan Christopher Michael | Open Market Sale | 12.6.2026 | 1,279,245 | -35,196 | $1.43 |
| Bloom Paul D | Open Market Sale | 12.6.2026 | 1,483,399 | -35,189 | $1.43 |
| Bowron Kimberly T | Open Market Sale | 12.6.2026 | 696,295 | -15,470 | $1.43 |
| Shafer Andrew | Open Market Sale | 12.6.2026 | 311,608 | -9,443 | $1.43 |
| Gendenjamts Davaajargal | Open Market Sale | 12.6.2026 | 108,865 | -4,293 | $1.43 |
| Agiri Oluwagbemileke Yusuf | Open Market Sale | 12.6.2026 | 491,116 | -63,028 | $1.40 |
| BAUM WILLIAM H | Grant/Award from Employer | 27.5.2026 | 80,893 | +80,893 | — |
| Barber James J | Grant/Award from Employer | 27.5.2026 | 70,000 | +70,000 | — |
| Marsh Andrew | Grant/Award from Employer | 27.5.2026 | 343,669 | +70,000 | — |
| Gruber Patrick R. | Grant/Award from Employer | 27.5.2026 | 3,915,462 | +70,000 | — |
| Gruber Patrick R. | Open Market Sale | 27.5.2026 | 3,728,993 | -186,469 | $1.76 |
| Ryan Christopher Michael | Open Market Sale | 27.5.2026 | 1,314,441 | -87,700 | $1.76 |
| Mize Gary W. | Grant/Award from Employer | 27.5.2026 | 351,226 | +70,000 | — |
| Bloom Paul D | Open Market Sale | 27.5.2026 | 1,518,588 | -75,735 | $1.76 |
| Bowron Kimberly T | Open Market Sale | 27.5.2026 | 711,765 | -25,101 | $1.76 |
| Guillen Jaime | Grant/Award from Employer | 27.5.2026 | 264,046 | +70,000 | — |
| Shafer Andrew | Open Market Sale | 27.5.2026 | 321,051 | -32,667 | $1.76 |
| Ellet Mary Kathryn | Grant/Award from Employer | 27.5.2026 | 132,821 | +70,000 | — |
| Agiri Oluwagbemileke Yusuf | Open Market Sale | 27.5.2026 | 554,144 | -31,958 | $1.77 |
| JAMES KYLE DEAN | Grant/Award from Employer | 20.5.2026 | 266,448 | +133,232 | — |
| JAMES KYLE DEAN | Grant/Award from Employer | 20.5.2026 | 153,937 | +153,937 | — |
| Bloom Paul D | Grant/Award from Employer | 20.5.2026 | 1,594,323 | +670,732 | — |
| Bloom Paul D | Grant/Award from Employer | 20.5.2026 | 774,967 | +774,967 | — |
| Bowron Kimberly T | Grant/Award from Employer | 20.5.2026 | 736,866 | +255,640 | — |
📉 Short Interest
Official FINRA data — the number of shares open in short positions, plus daily short-sale activity.
Monthly Trend — Open Short Interest
26,696,970 shares short as of 2026-07-15 · vs. 25,187,487 on 2026-06-30
Official biweekly report (FINRA Rule 4560) — no real higher-frequency data exists for this metric.
Weekly Trend — Daily Short-Sale Activity
63.9% of trading volume this week was short selling, vs. 57.9% the prior week
Based on daily short-sale volume (Reg SHO) — a different metric from the open short interest above: this is daily trading volume, not an open position, so it updates weekly rather than biweekly.
📰 News & Sentiment
Sentiment based on basic keywords (not AI) — 1 positive, 0 neutral, 0 negative out of the last 1 articles.
ChartMill · 6.8.2026