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CIFR

Cipher Digital Inc.

· ·

$18.21

$0.50 (-2.7%)

Market Cap

$7.56B

Day Range

$17.70 - $19.60

52-Week Range

$4.55 - $30.14

Beta

Next Earnings

+273.9% (1Y)

Investor Score
33/ 100F
🔴 Weak

This score and all analysis on this page are for informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. Read the full disclaimer

📈13FTechnical
💰31FFundamental
🚀40DGrowth
💎38FValuation
📰44DNews
🏦58CQuality
⚠️42DRisk

Weighted: Technical 25% · Fundamental 20% · Growth 15% · Valuation 15% · News 10% · Quality 10% · Risk 5%

🔍 Cross-Check

Overall Score

🔴 Bearish

Technical Trend

🔴 Bearish

Insiders

🔴 Bearish

✅ Why is the score relatively high?

  • 🟢 Revenue growth (last year): 48.0%
  • 🟢 Operating margin is stable or improving over time
  • 🟢 Current ratio: 3.79
  • 🟢 Gross margin: 63.7% — strong
  • 🟢 Current ratio: 3.79

⚠️ What's concerning?

  • 🔴 Estimated fair value: -$52.09 vs. price $18.21 (-386.0%)
  • 🔴 Operating margin: -188.2% (negative)
  • 🔴 Net margin: -367.2% (negative)
  • 🔴 ATR: 15.9% of price
  • 🔴 Return on equity (ROE): -102.1% (negative)

🚦 Quality & Risk Checks

🟢 Operating margin stability🟡 Conservative leverage🔴 Daily volatility (ATR)🔴 Leverage risk🟢 Liquidity risk

📰 News Trend

Based on real financial news (Finnhub)
🔴 Negative

Everyone's writing about Cipher Digital Inc.. News trend score: 44. Reason: 4 of the last 20 articles are negative, versus 3 positive.

News trend analysis is based on article sentiment only, and is not investment advice or financial counsel. Read the full disclaimer

📈 Technical Analysis

Based on the last 251 trading days, calculated from real price data. Click an indicator for details and a chart.

🔴 Most indicators support a downtrend (0 bullish · 10 bearish · 1 neutral)

Conclusions

  • 🔴Price vs. SMA 50Price is below the 50-day average
  • 🔴Price vs. SMA 200Price is below the 200-day average
  • 🔴MACDMACD histogram is negative — falling momentum
  • 🔴RSIRSI 42.6 — weak/negative bias
  • 🔴Stochastic%K 8.2 — oversold
  • 🟡ADX (trend strength)ADX 12.0 — weak trend/choppy
  • 🔴Relative strength vs. S&P 500-21.6% over the last 3 months relative to the index
  • 🔴Bollinger BandsPrice is in the lower third of the Bollinger Bands (20%B) — weakness (chance of a recovery)
  • 🔴ROC (rate of change)ROC 12 days: -20.4%
  • 🔴Parabolic SARPrice is below the SAR point — downtrend
  • 🔴CMF (money flow)CMF 20 days: -0.13

Wyckoff Method Analysis

A market-structure read based purely on real price and volume data — not full classic Wyckoff schematic identification (Phase A-E), but a quantitative analysis of what can reliably be computed: trading ranges, "effort vs. result", volume within the range, and Spring/Upthrust detection.

Markdown

The stock is in a clear downtrend with no defined trading range in the period examined.

Medium confidence

Evidence Behind This Read

  • 🔴Falling price trendA -27.6% change over the last 50 days, with no defined trading range.

The Wyckoff Method, developed by Richard Wyckoff in the early 20th century, reads the balance of supply and demand through price and volume, based on the premise that large investors ("smart money") quietly accumulate shares before rallies and quietly distribute them before declines. The read here is based solely on real price and volume data — full, precise identification of classic Wyckoff patterns (such as Phases A-E) requires human chart-reading experience and judgment, so this is an approximate algorithmic read, not a substitute for professional analysis. This should not be considered investment advice.

🎯 Trade Planning (M.A.E.E Framework)

Based on a mechanical trading method: market structure → value zone → ATR-based exit point. Not investment advice — a calculation tool only.

1️⃣ Market Structure

🔴 Downtrend

The price is below the 200-day average — an environment that mainly favors looking for selling (Short) opportunities, not buying.

2️⃣ Value Zone

🟡 Price far from value zone

The price is currently far from the 50-day average — the method recommends waiting for a "pullback" before entering, rather than chasing prices.

3️⃣ Suggested Exit Point (ATR-based)

Method formula: Stop-loss = resistance plusone ATR margin — this way the stop adapts to the stock's actual volatility, rather than an arbitrary number.

Entry

$18.21

Stop-Loss

$33.04

Risk per Share

$14.83

Direction

Short

Profit Targets by Risk/Reward Ratio (R)

1:2 R

-$11.44

1:3 R

-$26.27

1:5 R

-$55.93

💰 Position Size Calculator

A core principle of the method: never risk a fixed dollar amount — risk a fixed percentage of equity, and let the position size vary according to the risk per share.

Suggested Position Size

6 sh.

💰 Financial Health

Profitability

Gross Margin

63.7%

Operating Margin

-188.2%

Net Margin

-367.2%

EBITDA Margin

-99.4%

Efficiency

ROE

-102.1%

ROA

-19.2%

ROIC

EPS

-$2.15

Balance Sheet

Cash

$628.26M

Total Debt

$2.75B

Current Ratio

3.79

Debt/Equity

3.41

Conclusions

  • 🟢Gross marginGross margin: 63.7% — strong
  • 🔴Operating marginOperating margin: -188.2% (negative)
  • 🔴Net marginNet margin: -367.2% (negative)
  • 🔴Return on equity (ROE)Return on equity (ROE): -102.1% (negative)
  • 🔴Return on assets (ROA)Return on assets (ROA): -19.2% — weak
  • 🟢Current ratio (liquidity)Current ratio: 3.79
  • 🔴Debt-to-equityDebt/equity: 3.41

🚀 Growth

Revenue

Earnings per Share (EPS)

Net Income

Free Cash Flow (FCF)

Conclusions

  • 🟢Revenue growth (last year)Revenue growth (last year): 48.0%
  • 🔴Earnings per share (EPS) growthEarnings per share (EPS) growth: -1435.7%
  • 🔴Free cash flow growthFree cash flow growth: -206.5%
  • 🔴Net income growthNet income growth: -1742.2%

💎 Fair Value (Valuation)

Current Price

$18.21

Estimated Fair Value (DCF)

-$52.09

Gap

-386.0%

🔴 Appears expensive relative to estimated value

Show all model (DCF) assumptions →

Year 1 Growth Rate

25.0%

Discount Rate (WACC)

9.0%

Terminal Growth Rate

2.5%

Projection Years

5

YearGrowth RateProjected FCFPresent Value
125.0%$-869.82M$-798.00M
219.4%$-1.04B$-873.96M
313.8%$-1.18B$-912.05M
48.1%$-1.28B$-904.72M
52.5%$-1.31B$-850.77M

Base FCF (last actual year)

$-695.86M

Terminal Value

$-20.64B

Present Value of Terminal Value

$-13.42B

Enterprise Value

$-17.76B

Net Debt

$2.12B

Equity Value

$-19.88B

*The DCF model is an estimate based on assumptions — not a guaranteed forecast. You can change the assumptions to examine different scenarios.

Book Value per Share

$2.11

Tangible Book Value per Share (Tangible NAV)

$1.91

Conclusions

  • 🔴DCF Fair ValueEstimated fair value: -$52.09 vs. price $18.21 (-386.0%)
  • 🟡Tangible Net Asset Value (NAV)NAV per share: $1.91
  • 🟡P/EP/E: -8.5

🕴️ Insider Trading

Real transactions by officers and insiders, as reported to the SEC on Form 4 — 0 purchases and 2 sales out of the last 25 filings.

NameTransaction TypeDateSharesChangePrice
Page TylerOpen Market Sale9.7.20268,971,725-112,500$22.68
Page TylerOpen Market Sale8.7.20269,084,225-112,500$21.19
Kelly Patrick ArthurExercise of Derivative Securities30.6.20261,567,406+33,967
Kelly Patrick ArthurTax Withholding in Shares30.6.20261,550,065-17,341$24.50
Kelly Patrick ArthurExercise of Derivative Securities30.6.20261,579,676+29,611
Kelly Patrick ArthurTax Withholding in Shares30.6.20261,564,559-15,117$24.50
Kelly Patrick ArthurExercise of Derivative Securities30.6.20261,640,986+76,427
Kelly Patrick ArthurTax Withholding in Shares30.6.20261,601,970-39,016$24.50
Kelly Patrick ArthurExercise of Derivative Securities30.6.2026999,749-33,967
Kelly Patrick ArthurExercise of Derivative Securities30.6.2026970,138-29,611
Kelly Patrick ArthurExercise of Derivative Securities30.6.2026458,559-76,427
Page TylerExercise of Derivative Securities30.6.20269,078,287+113,225
Page TylerTax Withholding in Shares30.6.20269,020,485-57,802$24.50
Page TylerExercise of Derivative Securities30.6.20269,125,770+105,285
Page TylerTax Withholding in Shares30.6.20269,072,022-53,748$24.50
Page TylerExercise of Derivative Securities30.6.20269,326,778+254,756
Page TylerTax Withholding in Shares30.6.20269,196,725-130,053$24.50
Page TylerExercise of Derivative Securities30.6.20263,404,883-113,225
Page TylerExercise of Derivative Securities30.6.20263,299,598-105,285
Page TylerExercise of Derivative Securities30.6.20261,528,532-254,756
Iwaschuk WilliamExercise of Derivative Securities30.6.20261,573,077+33,967
Iwaschuk WilliamTax Withholding in Shares30.6.20261,554,293-18,784$24.50
Iwaschuk WilliamExercise of Derivative Securities30.6.20261,583,904+29,611
Iwaschuk WilliamTax Withholding in Shares30.6.20261,567,529-16,375$24.50
Iwaschuk WilliamExercise of Derivative Securities30.6.20261,643,956+76,427

📉 Short Interest

Official FINRA data — the number of shares open in short positions, plus daily short-sale activity.

Monthly Trend — Open Short Interest

+3.9%

56,099,030 shares short as of 2026-07-15 · vs. 54,001,420 on 2026-06-30

Official biweekly report (FINRA Rule 4560) — no real higher-frequency data exists for this metric.

Weekly Trend — Daily Short-Sale Activity

-3.9%

49.1% of trading volume this week was short selling, vs. 51.1% the prior week

Based on daily short-sale volume (Reg SHO) — a different metric from the open short interest above: this is daily trading volume, not an open position, so it updates weekly rather than biweekly.

📰 News & Sentiment

Sentiment based on basic keywords (not AI) — 3 positive, 13 neutral, 4 negative out of the last 20 articles.