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BUR

Burford Capital Limited

· ·

$4.30

$0.03 (+0.7%)

Market Cap

$944.21M

Day Range

$3.93 - $4.38

52-Week Range

$3.59 - $14.14

Beta

Next Earnings

03.11.2026

-66.8% (1Y)

Investor Score
46/ 100D+
🟡 Moderate

This score and all analysis on this page are for informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. Read the full disclaimer

📈56CTechnical
💰51C-Fundamental
🚀26FGrowth
💎43DValuation
📰56CNews
🏦42DQuality
⚠️42DRisk

Weighted: Technical 25% · Fundamental 20% · Growth 15% · Valuation 15% · News 10% · Quality 10% · Risk 5%

🔍 Cross-Check

Overall Score

🟡 Mixed

Technical Trend

🟢 Bullish

✅ Why is the score relatively high?

  • 🟢 Price is above the 50-day average
  • 🟢 MACD histogram is positive — rising momentum
  • 🟢 RSI 53.1 — healthy positive momentum
  • 🟢 Operating margin: 56.2% — strong
  • 🟢 Net margin: 15.1% — strong

⚠️ What's concerning?

  • 🔴 Estimated fair value: -$10.28 vs. price $4.30 (-339.1%)
  • 🔴 Operating margin is eroding over time
  • 🔴 ATR: 4.7% of price
  • 🔴 Revenue growth (last year): -24.3%
  • 🔴 Earnings per share (EPS) growth: -57.6%

🚦 Quality & Risk Checks

🔴 Operating margin stability🟡 Conservative leverage🔴 Daily volatility (ATR)🟡 Leverage risk

📰 News Trend

Based on real financial news (Finnhub)
🟡 Mixed

Everyone's writing about Burford Capital Limited. News trend score: 56. Reason: 3 of the last 14 articles are positive, versus 2 negative.

News trend analysis is based on article sentiment only, and is not investment advice or financial counsel. Read the full disclaimer

📈 Technical Analysis

Based on the last 251 trading days, calculated from real price data. Click an indicator for details and a chart.

🟢 Most indicators support an uptrend (5 bullish · 3 bearish · 3 neutral)

Conclusions

  • 🟢Price vs. SMA 50Price is above the 50-day average
  • 🔴Price vs. SMA 200Price is below the 200-day average
  • 🟢MACDMACD histogram is positive — rising momentum
  • 🟢RSIRSI 53.1 — healthy positive momentum
  • 🟡Stochastic%K 76.5 — neutral range
  • 🟡ADX (trend strength)ADX 11.2 — weak trend/choppy
  • 🔴Relative strength vs. S&P 500-23.6% over the last 3 months relative to the index
  • 🟢Bollinger BandsPrice is in the upper third of the Bollinger Bands (81%B) — strong momentum (risk of a pullback)
  • 🟢ROC (rate of change)ROC 12 days: 4.9%
  • 🔴Parabolic SARPrice is below the SAR point — downtrend
  • 🟡CMF (money flow)CMF 20 days: 0.03

Wyckoff Method Analysis

A market-structure read based purely on real price and volume data — not full classic Wyckoff schematic identification (Phase A-E), but a quantitative analysis of what can reliably be computed: trading ranges, "effort vs. result", volume within the range, and Spring/Upthrust detection.

Markdown

The stock is in a clear downtrend with no defined trading range in the period examined.

High confidence

Evidence Behind This Read

  • 🔴Falling price trendA -5.3% change over the last 50 days, with no defined trading range.

The Wyckoff Method, developed by Richard Wyckoff in the early 20th century, reads the balance of supply and demand through price and volume, based on the premise that large investors ("smart money") quietly accumulate shares before rallies and quietly distribute them before declines. The read here is based solely on real price and volume data — full, precise identification of classic Wyckoff patterns (such as Phases A-E) requires human chart-reading experience and judgment, so this is an approximate algorithmic read, not a substitute for professional analysis. This should not be considered investment advice.

🎯 Trade Planning (M.A.E.E Framework)

Based on a mechanical trading method: market structure → value zone → ATR-based exit point. Not investment advice — a calculation tool only.

1️⃣ Market Structure

🔴 Downtrend

The price is below the 200-day average — an environment that mainly favors looking for selling (Short) opportunities, not buying.

2️⃣ Value Zone

🟢 Price in value zone

The price is close to the 50-day moving average — per the method, this is a reasonable area to look for an entry, rather than chasing the price far from it.

3️⃣ Suggested Exit Point (ATR-based)

Method formula: Stop-loss = resistance plusone ATR margin — this way the stop adapts to the stock's actual volatility, rather than an arbitrary number.

Entry

$4.30

Stop-Loss

$5.06

Risk per Share

$0.76

Direction

Short

Profit Targets by Risk/Reward Ratio (R)

1:2 R

$2.77

1:3 R

$2.01

1:5 R

$0.48

💰 Position Size Calculator

A core principle of the method: never risk a fixed dollar amount — risk a fixed percentage of equity, and let the position size vary according to the risk per share.

Suggested Position Size

130 sh.

💰 Financial Health

Profitability

Gross Margin

Operating Margin

56.2%

Net Margin

15.1%

EBITDA Margin

56.2%

Efficiency

ROE

2.6%

ROA

0.9%

ROIC

EPS

$0.29

Balance Sheet

Cash

$566.44M

Total Debt

$2.13B

Current Ratio

Debt/Equity

0.87

Conclusions

  • 🟢Operating marginOperating margin: 56.2% — strong
  • 🟢Net marginNet margin: 15.1% — strong
  • 🔴Return on equity (ROE)Return on equity (ROE): 2.6% — weak
  • 🔴Return on assets (ROA)Return on assets (ROA): 0.9% — weak
  • 🟡Debt-to-equityDebt/equity: 0.87
  • 🔴Interest coverageInterest coverage: 1.6x

🚀 Growth

Revenue

Earnings per Share (EPS)

Net Income

Free Cash Flow (FCF)

Conclusions

  • 🔴Revenue growth (last year)Revenue growth (last year): -24.3%
  • 🔴Earnings per share (EPS) growthEarnings per share (EPS) growth: -57.6%
  • 🔴Free cash flow growthFree cash flow growth: -113.6%
  • 🔴Net income growthNet income growth: -57.3%

💵 Dividends

Total dividend per share paid each year, over the last 5 years.

Annual Dividend per Share

Ex-Dividend DateAmount per Share
22.5.2026$0.063
23.5.2025$0.063
1.11.2024$0.063
23.5.2024$0.063
9.11.2023$0.063
25.5.2023$0.063
3.11.2022$0.063
26.5.2022$0.063
11.11.2021$0.063

💎 Fair Value (Valuation)

Current Price

$4.30

Estimated Fair Value (DCF)

-$10.28

Gap

-339.1%

🔴 Appears expensive relative to estimated value

Show all model (DCF) assumptions →

Year 1 Growth Rate

25.0%

Discount Rate (WACC)

9.0%

Terminal Growth Rate

2.5%

Projection Years

5

YearGrowth RateProjected FCFPresent Value
125.0%$-36.62M$-33.60M
219.4%$-43.72M$-36.80M
313.8%$-49.73M$-38.40M
48.1%$-53.77M$-38.09M
52.5%$-55.11M$-35.82M

Base FCF (last actual year)

$-29.30M

Terminal Value

$-869.11M

Present Value of Terminal Value

$-564.86M

Enterprise Value

$-747.57M

Net Debt

$1.56B

Equity Value

$-2.31B

*The DCF model is an estimate based on assumptions — not a guaranteed forecast. You can change the assumptions to examine different scenarios.

Book Value per Share

$10.90

Tangible Book Value per Share (Tangible NAV)

$10.30

Conclusions

  • 🔴DCF Fair ValueEstimated fair value: -$10.28 vs. price $4.30 (-339.1%)
  • 🟢Tangible Net Asset Value (NAV)NAV per share: $10.30
  • 🟡P/EP/E: 15.4

🕴️ Insider Trading

Real transactions by officers and insiders, as reported to the SEC on Form 4 — 0 purchases and 0 sales out of the last 25 filings.

NameTransaction TypeDateSharesChangePrice
OCONNELL ELIZABETHExercise of Derivative Securities15.6.202642,112+42,112
OCONNELL ELIZABETHTax Withholding in Shares15.6.202632,847-9,265$4.64
OCONNELL ELIZABETHExercise of Derivative Securities15.6.2026346,485-42,112
BOGART CHRISTOPHER PExercise of Derivative Securities15.6.2026121,880+121,880
BOGART CHRISTOPHER PTax Withholding in Shares15.6.2026103,586-18,294$4.64
BOGART CHRISTOPHER PExercise of Derivative Securities15.6.20262,094,826-121,880
Sievwright John P.Grant/Award from Employer15.6.202666,319+32,076
Halmy Christopher AGrant/Award from Employer15.6.202659,576+22,406
Gillespie Robert Andrew JosephGrant/Award from Employer15.6.202630,185+11,203
BOGART CHRISTOPHER PTax Withholding in Shares26.3.20260-1,104$7.70
BOGART CHRISTOPHER PExercise of Derivative Securities26.3.20262,134,982-107,568
BOGART CHRISTOPHER PGrant/Award from Employer26.3.20262,242,550+107,568
BOGART CHRISTOPHER PExercise of Derivative Securities26.3.20262,159,721-82,829
BOGART CHRISTOPHER PGrant/Award from Employer26.3.20262,241,446+81,725
Klein Mark N.Exercise of Derivative Securities26.3.202695,636+18,437
Klein Mark N.Exercise of Derivative Securities26.3.2026109,833+14,197
Klein Mark N.Exercise of Derivative Securities26.3.2026113,624+3,791
Klein Mark N.Tax Withholding in Shares26.3.202695,476-18,148$7.70
Klein Mark N.Exercise of Derivative Securities26.3.2026115,340-18,437
Klein Mark N.Exercise of Derivative Securities26.3.2026101,143-14,197
Klein Mark N.Exercise of Derivative Securities26.3.202697,352-3,791
Molot Jonathan ToddTax Withholding in Shares26.3.20263,406,625-1,104$7.70
Molot Jonathan ToddExercise of Derivative Securities26.3.20262,203,279-107,568
Molot Jonathan ToddGrant/Award from Employer26.3.20262,310,847+107,568
Molot Jonathan ToddExercise of Derivative Securities26.3.20262,228,018-82,829

📉 Short Interest

Official FINRA data — the number of shares open in short positions, plus daily short-sale activity.

Monthly Trend — Open Short Interest

+1.0%

15,731,062 shares short as of 2026-07-15 · vs. 15,571,164 on 2026-06-30

Official biweekly report (FINRA Rule 4560) — no real higher-frequency data exists for this metric.

Weekly Trend — Daily Short-Sale Activity

-11.2%

40.9% of trading volume this week was short selling, vs. 46.0% the prior week

Based on daily short-sale volume (Reg SHO) — a different metric from the open short interest above: this is daily trading volume, not an open position, so it updates weekly rather than biweekly.

📰 News & Sentiment

Sentiment based on basic keywords (not AI) — 3 positive, 9 neutral, 2 negative out of the last 14 articles.