BSRR
Sierra Bancorp· ·
$40.87
▲ $0.14 (+0.3%)
Market Cap
$529.81M
Day Range
$40.41 - $41.41
52-Week Range
$26.49 - $43.13
Beta
—
Next Earnings
26.10.2026
+43.9% (1Y)
This score and all analysis on this page are for informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. Read the full disclaimer
Weighted: Technical 25% · Fundamental 20% · Growth 15% · Valuation 15% · News 10% · Quality 10% · Risk 5%
🔍 Cross-Check
Overall Score
🟡 Mixed
Technical Trend
🟡 Mixed
Insiders
🔴 Bearish
✅ Why is the score relatively high?
- 🟢 Price is above the 50-day average
- 🟢 Price is above the 200-day average
- 🟢 +5.9% over the last 3 months relative to the index
- 🟢 Earnings per share (EPS) growth: 10.3%
- 🟢 P/E: 13.1
⚠️ What's concerning?
- 🔴 Estimated fair value: $24.48 vs. price $40.87 (-40.1%)
- 🔴 Free cash flow growth: -42.5%
- 🔴 MACD histogram is negative — falling momentum
- 🔴 Price is below the SAR point — downtrend
- 🔴 ROC 12 days: -2.6%
🚦 Quality & Risk Checks
📰 News Trend
Based on real financial news (Finnhub)Everyone's writing about Sierra Bancorp. News trend score: 38. Reason: 3 of the last 4 articles are negative, versus 1 positive.
News trend analysis is based on article sentiment only, and is not investment advice or financial counsel. Read the full disclaimer
📈 Technical Analysis
Based on the last 252 trading days, calculated from real price data. Click an indicator for details and a chart.
🟡 Indicators are mixed — no clear bias (5 bullish · 5 bearish · 1 neutral)
Conclusions
- 🟢Price vs. SMA 50 — Price is above the 50-day average
- 🟢Price vs. SMA 200 — Price is above the 200-day average
- 🔴MACD — MACD histogram is negative — falling momentum
- 🔴RSI — RSI 49.2 — weak/negative bias
- 🟡Stochastic — %K 56.4 — neutral range
- 🟢ADX (trend strength) — ADX 28.6 — strong trend
- 🟢Relative strength vs. S&P 500 — +5.9% over the last 3 months relative to the index
- 🔴Bollinger Bands — Price is in the lower third of the Bollinger Bands (29%B) — weakness (chance of a recovery)
- 🔴ROC (rate of change) — ROC 12 days: -2.6%
- 🔴Parabolic SAR — Price is below the SAR point — downtrend
- 🟢CMF (money flow) — CMF 20 days: 0.16
Wyckoff Method Analysis
A market-structure read based purely on real price and volume data — not full classic Wyckoff schematic identification (Phase A-E), but a quantitative analysis of what can reliably be computed: trading ranges, "effort vs. result", volume within the range, and Spring/Upthrust detection.
The stock is in a clear uptrend with no defined trading range in the period examined.
Low confidence
Evidence Behind This Read
- 🟢Rising price trend — A 6.2% change over the last 50 days, with no defined trading range.
- 🔴Divergence between price and cumulative money flow (A/D Line) — Price and the cumulative Accumulation/Distribution Line are moving in opposite directions — a classic Wyckoff sign that the move isn't backed by real money, and may be less stable than it looks.
The Wyckoff Method, developed by Richard Wyckoff in the early 20th century, reads the balance of supply and demand through price and volume, based on the premise that large investors ("smart money") quietly accumulate shares before rallies and quietly distribute them before declines. The read here is based solely on real price and volume data — full, precise identification of classic Wyckoff patterns (such as Phases A-E) requires human chart-reading experience and judgment, so this is an approximate algorithmic read, not a substitute for professional analysis. This should not be considered investment advice.
🎯 Trade Planning (M.A.E.E Framework)
Based on a mechanical trading method: market structure → value zone → ATR-based exit point. Not investment advice — a calculation tool only.
1️⃣ Market Structure
🟢 Uptrend
The price is above the 200-day average — per the market-structure method, this environment mainly favors looking for buying (Long) opportunities.
2️⃣ Value Zone
🟢 Price in value zone
The price is close to the 50-day moving average — per the method, this is a reasonable area to look for an entry, rather than chasing the price far from it.
3️⃣ Suggested Exit Point (ATR-based)
Method formula: Stop-loss = support minusone ATR margin — this way the stop adapts to the stock's actual volatility, rather than an arbitrary number.
Entry
$40.78
Stop-Loss
$33.99
Risk per Share
$6.79
Direction
Long
Profit Targets by Risk/Reward Ratio (R)
1:2 R
$54.35
1:3 R
$61.14
1:5 R
$74.72
💰 Position Size Calculator
A core principle of the method: never risk a fixed dollar amount — risk a fixed percentage of equity, and let the position size vary according to the risk per share.
Suggested Position Size
14 sh.
💰 Financial Health
Profitability
Gross Margin
—
Operating Margin
—
Net Margin
—
EBITDA Margin
—
Efficiency
ROE
11.6%
ROA
1.1%
ROIC
—
EPS
$3.14
Balance Sheet
Cash
$135.63M
Total Debt
$403.04M
Current Ratio
—
Debt/Equity
1.10
Conclusions
- 🟡Return on equity (ROE) — Return on equity (ROE): 11.6% — reasonable
- 🔴Return on assets (ROA) — Return on assets (ROA): 1.1% — weak
- 🟡Debt-to-equity — Debt/equity: 1.10
🚀 Growth
Revenue
אין נתונים היסטוריים זמינים.
Earnings per Share (EPS)
Net Income
Free Cash Flow (FCF)
Conclusions
- 🟢Earnings per share (EPS) growth — Earnings per share (EPS) growth: 10.3%
- 🔴Free cash flow growth — Free cash flow growth: -42.5%
- 🟡Net income growth — Net income growth: 4.4%
💵 Dividends
Total dividend per share paid each year, over the last 5 years.
Annual Dividend per Share
| Ex-Dividend Date | Amount per Share |
|---|---|
| 3.8.2026 | $0.270 |
| 4.5.2026 | $0.260 |
| 9.2.2026 | $0.260 |
| 3.11.2025 | $0.250 |
| 4.8.2025 | $0.250 |
| 5.5.2025 | $0.250 |
| 3.2.2025 | $0.250 |
| 31.10.2024 | $0.240 |
| 31.7.2024 | $0.240 |
| 29.4.2024 | $0.230 |
| 30.1.2024 | $0.230 |
| 30.10.2023 | $0.230 |
💎 Fair Value (Valuation)
Current Price
$40.87
Estimated Fair Value (DCF)
$24.48
Gap
-40.1%
🔴 Appears expensive relative to estimated value
Show all model (DCF) assumptions →
Year 1 Growth Rate
10.0%
Discount Rate (WACC)
9.0%
Terminal Growth Rate
2.5%
Projection Years
5
| Year | Growth Rate | Projected FCF | Present Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10.0% | $35.39M | $32.47M |
| 2 | 8.1% | $38.27M | $32.21M |
| 3 | 6.3% | $40.66M | $31.39M |
| 4 | 4.4% | $42.44M | $30.06M |
| 5 | 2.5% | $43.50M | $28.27M |
Base FCF (last actual year)
$32.17M
Terminal Value
$685.91M
Present Value of Terminal Value
$445.80M
Enterprise Value
$600.20M
Net Debt
$267.41M
Equity Value
$332.79M
*The DCF model is an estimate based on assumptions — not a guaranteed forecast. You can change the assumptions to examine different scenarios.
Book Value per Share
$26.84
Tangible Book Value per Share (Tangible NAV)
$24.83
Conclusions
- 🔴DCF Fair Value — Estimated fair value: $24.48 vs. price $40.87 (-40.1%)
- 🟡Tangible Net Asset Value (NAV) — NAV per share: $24.83
- 🟢P/E — P/E: 13.1
🕴️ Insider Trading
Real transactions by officers and insiders, as reported to the SEC on Form 4 — 0 purchases and 6 sales out of the last 25 filings.
| Name | Transaction Type | Date | Shares | Change | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Castle Julie G | Open Market Sale | 31.7.2026 | 1,181 | -1,000 | $40.70 |
| Boyle Hugh F | Open Market Sale | 29.5.2026 | 21,781 | -10,000 | $38.21 |
| Treece Christopher G | Exercise of Derivative Securities | 22.5.2026 | 49,095 | +10,000 | $27.11 |
| Treece Christopher G | Open Market Sale | 22.5.2026 | 39,095 | -10,000 | $38.18 |
| Treece Christopher G | Exercise of Derivative Securities | 22.5.2026 | 8,440 | -10,000 | — |
| Christenson Vonn R | Exercise of Derivative Securities | 18.5.2026 | 1,242 | +1,053 | $28.21 |
| Christenson Vonn R | Open Market Sale | 18.5.2026 | 189 | -1,053 | $38.01 |
| Christenson Vonn R | Exercise of Derivative Securities | 18.5.2026 | 0 | -1,053 | — |
| Christenson Vonn R | Exercise of Derivative Securities | 8.5.2026 | 4,136 | +3,947 | $28.21 |
| Christenson Vonn R | Open Market Sale | 8.5.2026 | 189 | -3,947 | $38.05 |
| Christenson Vonn R | Exercise of Derivative Securities | 8.5.2026 | 1,053 | -3,947 | — |
| Boyle Hugh F | Tax Withholding in Shares | 1.3.2026 | 31,781 | -1,689 | $35.98 |
| Boyle Hugh F | Tax Withholding in Shares | 23.2.2026 | 33,470 | -794 | $36.09 |
| Coen Natalia M | Tax Withholding in Shares | 23.2.2026 | 26,836 | -653 | $36.09 |
| Olague Michael | Tax Withholding in Shares | 23.2.2026 | 26,799 | -665 | $36.09 |
| Treece Christopher G | Tax Withholding in Shares | 23.2.2026 | 39,095 | -800 | $36.09 |
| McPhaill Kevin J | Tax Withholding in Shares | 23.2.2026 | 67,807 | -1,358 | $36.09 |
| BERRA ALBERT L | Exercise of Derivative Securities | 17.2.2026 | 147,843 | +5,000 | $17.25 |
| BERRA ALBERT L | Exercise of Derivative Securities | 17.2.2026 | 0 | -5,000 | — |
| Castle Julie G | Open Market Sale | 13.2.2026 | 2,181 | -250 | $37.52 |
| Treece Christopher G | Grant/Award from Employer | 12.2.2026 | 37,463 | +4,518 | — |
| Treece Christopher G | Grant/Award from Employer | 12.2.2026 | 39,895 | +2,432 | — |
| McPhaill Kevin J | Grant/Award from Employer | 12.2.2026 | 62,563 | +6,602 | — |
| McPhaill Kevin J | Grant/Award from Employer | 12.2.2026 | 69,165 | +6,602 | — |
| Olague Michael | Grant/Award from Employer | 12.2.2026 | 23,989 | +3,475 | — |
📉 Short Interest
Official FINRA data — the number of shares open in short positions, plus daily short-sale activity.
Monthly Trend — Open Short Interest
382,349 shares short as of 2026-07-15 · vs. 367,691 on 2026-06-30
Official biweekly report (FINRA Rule 4560) — no real higher-frequency data exists for this metric.
Weekly Trend — Daily Short-Sale Activity
74.6% of trading volume this week was short selling, vs. 70.6% the prior week
Based on daily short-sale volume (Reg SHO) — a different metric from the open short interest above: this is daily trading volume, not an open position, so it updates weekly rather than biweekly.
📰 News & Sentiment
Sentiment based on basic keywords (not AI) — 1 positive, 0 neutral, 3 negative out of the last 4 articles.
Benzinga · 3.8.2026
ChartMill · 27.7.2026
Benzinga · 27.7.2026
Benzinga · 24.7.2026