ARR
Armour Residential REIT Inc.· · NYSE
$16.55
▼ $0.08 (-0.5%)
Market Cap
$2.34B
Day Range
$16.48 - $16.68
52-Week Range
$13.98 - $19.31
Beta
—
Next Earnings
20.10.2026
+4.6% (1Y)
This score and all analysis on this page are for informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. Read the full disclaimer
Weighted: Technical 25% · Fundamental 20% · Growth 15% · Valuation 15% · News 10% · Quality 10% · Risk 5%
🔍 Cross-Check
Overall Score
🟡 Mixed
Technical Trend
🔴 Bearish
✅ Why is the score relatively high?
- 🟢 Earnings per share (EPS) growth: 747.1%
- 🟢 Net income growth: 2341.8%
- 🟢 ATR: 2.0% of price
- 🟢 MACD histogram is positive — rising momentum
- 🟢 NAV per share: $23.99
⚠️ What's concerning?
- 🔴 Price is below the 50-day average
- 🔴 Price is below the 200-day average
- 🔴 -8.7% over the last 3 months relative to the index
- 🔴 CMF 20 days: -0.20
- 🔴 RSI 49.7 — weak/negative bias
🚦 Quality & Risk Checks
📰 News Trend
Based on real financial news (Finnhub)Everyone's writing about Armour Residential REIT Inc.. News trend score: 44. Reason: 1 of the last 4 articles are negative, versus 0 positive.
News trend analysis is based on article sentiment only, and is not investment advice or financial counsel. Read the full disclaimer
📈 Technical Analysis
Based on the last 251 trading days, calculated from real price data. Click an indicator for details and a chart.
🔴 Most indicators support a downtrend (3 bullish · 6 bearish · 2 neutral)
Conclusions
- 🔴Price vs. SMA 50 — Price is below the 50-day average
- 🔴Price vs. SMA 200 — Price is below the 200-day average
- 🟢MACD — MACD histogram is positive — rising momentum
- 🔴RSI — RSI 49.7 — weak/negative bias
- 🟡Stochastic — %K 58.3 — neutral range
- 🟡ADX (trend strength) — ADX 22.4 — weak trend/choppy
- 🔴Volume trend — Volume is falling despite the price advance — possible weakening
- 🔴Relative strength vs. S&P 500 — -8.7% over the last 3 months relative to the index
- 🟢ROC (rate of change) — ROC 12 days: 1.4%
- 🟢Parabolic SAR — Price is above the SAR point — uptrend
- 🔴CMF (money flow) — CMF 20 days: -0.20
Wyckoff Method Analysis
A market-structure read based purely on real price and volume data — not full classic Wyckoff schematic identification (Phase A-E), but a quantitative analysis of what can reliably be computed: trading ranges, "effort vs. result", volume within the range, and Spring/Upthrust detection.
The stock is in a clear downtrend with no defined trading range in the period examined.
Medium confidence
Evidence Behind This Read
- 🔴Falling price trend — A -1.7% change over the last 50 days, with no defined trading range.
The Wyckoff Method, developed by Richard Wyckoff in the early 20th century, reads the balance of supply and demand through price and volume, based on the premise that large investors ("smart money") quietly accumulate shares before rallies and quietly distribute them before declines. The read here is based solely on real price and volume data — full, precise identification of classic Wyckoff patterns (such as Phases A-E) requires human chart-reading experience and judgment, so this is an approximate algorithmic read, not a substitute for professional analysis. This should not be considered investment advice.
🎯 Trade Planning (M.A.E.E Framework)
Based on a mechanical trading method: market structure → value zone → ATR-based exit point. Not investment advice — a calculation tool only.
1️⃣ Market Structure
🔴 Downtrend
The price is below the 200-day average — an environment that mainly favors looking for selling (Short) opportunities, not buying.
2️⃣ Value Zone
🟢 Price in value zone
The price is close to the 50-day moving average — per the method, this is a reasonable area to look for an entry, rather than chasing the price far from it.
3️⃣ Suggested Exit Point (ATR-based)
Method formula: Stop-loss = resistance plusone ATR margin — this way the stop adapts to the stock's actual volatility, rather than an arbitrary number.
Entry
$16.63
Stop-Loss
$17.98
Risk per Share
$1.35
Direction
Short
Profit Targets by Risk/Reward Ratio (R)
1:2 R
$13.93
1:3 R
$12.59
1:5 R
$9.89
💰 Position Size Calculator
A core principle of the method: never risk a fixed dollar amount — risk a fixed percentage of equity, and let the position size vary according to the risk per share.
Suggested Position Size
74 sh.
💰 Financial Health
Profitability
Gross Margin
—
Operating Margin
—
Net Margin
—
EBITDA Margin
—
Efficiency
ROE
14.3%
ROA
1.5%
ROIC
—
EPS
$3.31
Balance Sheet
Cash
$63.27M
Total Debt
—
Current Ratio
—
Debt/Equity
—
Conclusions
- 🟡Return on equity (ROE) — Return on equity (ROE): 14.3% — reasonable
- 🔴Return on assets (ROA) — Return on assets (ROA): 1.5% — weak
🚀 Growth
Revenue
אין נתונים היסטוריים זמינים.
Earnings per Share (EPS)
Net Income
Free Cash Flow (FCF)
אין נתונים היסטוריים זמינים.
Conclusions
- 🟢Earnings per share (EPS) growth — Earnings per share (EPS) growth: 747.1%
- 🟢Net income growth — Net income growth: 2341.8%
💵 Dividends
Total dividend per share paid each year, over the last 5 years.
Annual Dividend per Share
| Ex-Dividend Date | Amount per Share |
|---|---|
| 15.7.2026 | $0.240 |
| 15.6.2026 | $0.240 |
| 15.5.2026 | $0.240 |
| 15.4.2026 | $0.240 |
| 16.3.2026 | $0.240 |
| 17.2.2026 | $0.240 |
| 15.1.2026 | $0.240 |
| 15.12.2025 | $0.240 |
| 17.11.2025 | $0.240 |
| 15.10.2025 | $0.240 |
| 15.9.2025 | $0.240 |
| 15.8.2025 | $0.240 |
💎 Fair Value (Valuation)
Not enough cash-flow data to calculate a DCF model for this stock.
Book Value per Share
$23.99
Tangible Book Value per Share (Tangible NAV)
$23.99
Conclusions
- 🟢Tangible Net Asset Value (NAV) — NAV per share: $23.99
- 🟢P/E — P/E: 5.0
🕴️ Insider Trading
Real transactions by officers and insiders, as reported to the SEC on Form 4 — 0 purchases and 0 sales out of the last 25 filings.
| Name | Transaction Type | Date | Shares | Change | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAPERIN STEWART J | Grant/Award from Employer | 1.7.2026 | 12,195 | +945 | $17.45 |
| Downey Carolyn | Grant/Award from Employer | 1.7.2026 | 28,819 | +945 | $17.45 |
| ULM SCOTT | Grant/Award from Employer | 16.6.2026 | 183,490 | +150,000 | — |
| Harper Gordon | Grant/Award from Employer | 16.6.2026 | 129,600 | +75,000 | — |
| Macauley Desmond | Grant/Award from Employer | 16.6.2026 | 72,500 | +50,000 | — |
| Losyev Sergey | Grant/Award from Employer | 16.6.2026 | 72,500 | +50,000 | — |
| STATON DANIEL C | Exercise of Derivative Securities | 21.5.2026 | 32,723 | +1,900 | — |
| STATON DANIEL C | Exercise of Derivative Securities | 21.5.2026 | 33,203 | +480 | — |
| STATON DANIEL C | Exercise of Derivative Securities | 21.5.2026 | 32,724 | -1,900 | — |
| STATON DANIEL C | Exercise of Derivative Securities | 21.5.2026 | 32,244 | -480 | — |
| BELL MARC H | Exercise of Derivative Securities | 21.5.2026 | 28,301 | +1,900 | — |
| BELL MARC H | Exercise of Derivative Securities | 21.5.2026 | 28,781 | +480 | — |
| BELL MARC H | Exercise of Derivative Securities | 21.5.2026 | 32,724 | -1,900 | — |
| BELL MARC H | Exercise of Derivative Securities | 21.5.2026 | 32,244 | -480 | — |
| PAPERIN STEWART J | Exercise of Derivative Securities | 21.5.2026 | 11,250 | +1,900 | — |
| PAPERIN STEWART J | Exercise of Derivative Securities | 21.5.2026 | 30,254 | -1,900 | — |
| HOLLIHAN JOHN P III | Exercise of Derivative Securities | 21.5.2026 | 21,001 | +1,900 | — |
| HOLLIHAN JOHN P III | Tax Withholding in Shares | 21.5.2026 | 20,241 | -760 | $16.47 |
| HOLLIHAN JOHN P III | Exercise of Derivative Securities | 21.5.2026 | 30,254 | -1,900 | — |
| Behar Z Jamie | Exercise of Derivative Securities | 21.5.2026 | 15,444 | +1,900 | — |
| Behar Z Jamie | Exercise of Derivative Securities | 21.5.2026 | 30,254 | -1,900 | — |
| Hain Robert C | Exercise of Derivative Securities | 21.5.2026 | 3,431 | +1,900 | — |
| Hain Robert C | Tax Withholding in Shares | 21.5.2026 | 2,481 | -950 | $16.47 |
| Hain Robert C | Exercise of Derivative Securities | 21.5.2026 | 30,254 | -1,900 | — |
| Downey Carolyn | Exercise of Derivative Securities | 21.5.2026 | 28,824 | +1,900 | — |
📉 Short Interest
Official FINRA data — the number of shares open in short positions, plus daily short-sale activity.
Monthly Trend — Open Short Interest
14,066,131 shares short as of 2026-07-15 · vs. 11,935,294 on 2026-06-30
Official biweekly report (FINRA Rule 4560) — no real higher-frequency data exists for this metric.
Weekly Trend — Daily Short-Sale Activity
66.4% of trading volume this week was short selling, vs. 65.5% the prior week
Based on daily short-sale volume (Reg SHO) — a different metric from the open short interest above: this is daily trading volume, not an open position, so it updates weekly rather than biweekly.
📰 News & Sentiment
Sentiment based on basic keywords (not AI) — 0 positive, 3 neutral, 1 negative out of the last 4 articles.
SeekingAlpha · 26.7.2026
SeekingAlpha · 23.7.2026
SeekingAlpha · 23.7.2026
Benzinga · 23.7.2026