AIR
AAR Corp.· · NYSE
$146.40
▼ $0.43 (-0.3%)
Market Cap
$5.84B
Day Range
$146.10 - $153.86
52-Week Range
$71.57 - $153.86
Beta
—
Next Earnings
21.09.2026
+103.7% (1Y)
This score and all analysis on this page are for informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. Read the full disclaimer
Weighted: Technical 25% · Fundamental 20% · Growth 15% · Valuation 15% · News 10% · Quality 10% · Risk 5%
🔍 Cross-Check
Overall Score
🟡 Mixed
Technical Trend
🟢 Bullish
✅ Why is the score relatively high?
- 🟢 Earnings per share (EPS) growth: 1288.6%
- 🟢 Free cash flow growth: 4335.7%
- 🟢 Net income growth: 1401.6%
- 🟢 Current ratio: 2.84
- 🟢 Price is above the 50-day average
⚠️ What's concerning?
- 🔴 Estimated fair value: $15.03 vs. price $146.40 (-89.7%)
- 🔴 ATR: 4.4% of price
- 🔴 Gross margin: 18.8% — weak
- 🔴 %K 83.3 — overbought
- 🔴 Volume is falling despite the price advance — possible weakening
🚦 Quality & Risk Checks
📰 News Trend
Based on real financial news (Finnhub)Everyone's writing about AAR Corp.. News trend score: 68. Reason: 3 of the last 5 articles are positive, versus 0 negative.
News trend analysis is based on article sentiment only, and is not investment advice or financial counsel. Read the full disclaimer
📈 Technical Analysis
Based on the last 251 trading days, calculated from real price data. Click an indicator for details and a chart.
🟢 Most indicators support an uptrend (9 bullish · 2 bearish · 1 neutral)
Conclusions
- 🟢Price vs. SMA 50 — Price is above the 50-day average
- 🟢Price vs. SMA 200 — Price is above the 200-day average
- 🟢MACD — MACD histogram is positive — rising momentum
- 🟢RSI — RSI 60.8 — healthy positive momentum
- 🔴Stochastic — %K 83.3 — overbought
- 🟡ADX (trend strength) — ADX 19.5 — weak trend/choppy
- 🔴Volume trend — Volume is falling despite the price advance — possible weakening
- 🟢Relative strength vs. S&P 500 — +26.5% over the last 3 months relative to the index
- 🟢Bollinger Bands — Price is in the upper third of the Bollinger Bands (95%B) — strong momentum (risk of a pullback)
- 🟢ROC (rate of change) — ROC 12 days: 8.2%
- 🟢Parabolic SAR — Price is above the SAR point — uptrend
- 🟢CMF (money flow) — CMF 20 days: 0.12
Wyckoff Method Analysis
A market-structure read based purely on real price and volume data — not full classic Wyckoff schematic identification (Phase A-E), but a quantitative analysis of what can reliably be computed: trading ranges, "effort vs. result", volume within the range, and Spring/Upthrust detection.
The stock is in a clear uptrend with no defined trading range in the period examined.
High confidence
Evidence Behind This Read
- 🟢Rising price trend — A 30.2% change over the last 50 days, with no defined trading range.
The Wyckoff Method, developed by Richard Wyckoff in the early 20th century, reads the balance of supply and demand through price and volume, based on the premise that large investors ("smart money") quietly accumulate shares before rallies and quietly distribute them before declines. The read here is based solely on real price and volume data — full, precise identification of classic Wyckoff patterns (such as Phases A-E) requires human chart-reading experience and judgment, so this is an approximate algorithmic read, not a substitute for professional analysis. This should not be considered investment advice.
🎯 Trade Planning (M.A.E.E Framework)
Based on a mechanical trading method: market structure → value zone → ATR-based exit point. Not investment advice — a calculation tool only.
1️⃣ Market Structure
🟢 Uptrend
The price is above the 200-day average — per the market-structure method, this environment mainly favors looking for buying (Long) opportunities.
2️⃣ Value Zone
🟡 Price far from value zone
The price is currently far from the 50-day average — the method recommends waiting for a "pullback" before entering, rather than chasing prices.
3️⃣ Suggested Exit Point (ATR-based)
Method formula: Stop-loss = support minusone ATR margin — this way the stop adapts to the stock's actual volatility, rather than an arbitrary number.
Entry
$146.83
Stop-Loss
$101.00
Risk per Share
$45.83
Direction
Long
Profit Targets by Risk/Reward Ratio (R)
1:2 R
$238.49
1:3 R
$284.32
1:5 R
$375.98
💰 Position Size Calculator
A core principle of the method: never risk a fixed dollar amount — risk a fixed percentage of equity, and let the position size vary according to the risk per share.
Suggested Position Size
2 sh.
💰 Financial Health
Profitability
Gross Margin
18.8%
Operating Margin
—
Net Margin
5.7%
EBITDA Margin
—
Efficiency
ROE
11.0%
ROA
5.6%
ROIC
—
EPS
$4.88
Balance Sheet
Cash
$84.00M
Total Debt
$893.90M
Current Ratio
2.84
Debt/Equity
0.52
Conclusions
- 🔴Gross margin — Gross margin: 18.8% — weak
- 🟡Net margin — Net margin: 5.7% — reasonable
- 🟡Return on equity (ROE) — Return on equity (ROE): 11.0% — reasonable
- 🟡Return on assets (ROA) — Return on assets (ROA): 5.6% — reasonable
- 🟢Current ratio (liquidity) — Current ratio: 2.84
- 🟡Debt-to-equity — Debt/equity: 0.52
🚀 Growth
Revenue
Earnings per Share (EPS)
Net Income
Free Cash Flow (FCF)
Conclusions
- 🟢Revenue growth (last year) — Revenue growth (last year): 19.0%
- 🟢Earnings per share (EPS) growth — Earnings per share (EPS) growth: 1288.6%
- 🟢Free cash flow growth — Free cash flow growth: 4335.7%
- 🟢Net income growth — Net income growth: 1401.6%
💎 Fair Value (Valuation)
Current Price
$146.40
Estimated Fair Value (DCF)
$15.03
Gap
-89.7%
🔴 Appears expensive relative to estimated value
Show all model (DCF) assumptions →
Year 1 Growth Rate
18.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)
9.0%
Terminal Growth Rate
2.5%
Projection Years
5
| Year | Growth Rate | Projected FCF | Present Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18.5% | $73.56M | $67.49M |
| 2 | 14.5% | $84.21M | $70.87M |
| 3 | 10.5% | $93.03M | $71.84M |
| 4 | 6.5% | $99.07M | $70.18M |
| 5 | 2.5% | $101.54M | $66.00M |
Base FCF (last actual year)
$62.10M
Terminal Value
$1.60B
Present Value of Terminal Value
$1.04B
Enterprise Value
$1.39B
Net Debt
$809.90M
Equity Value
$577.21M
*The DCF model is an estimate based on assumptions — not a guaranteed forecast. You can change the assumptions to examine different scenarios.
Book Value per Share
$44.37
Tangible Book Value per Share (Tangible NAV)
$21.92
Conclusions
- 🔴DCF Fair Value — Estimated fair value: $15.03 vs. price $146.40 (-89.7%)
- 🟡Tangible Net Asset Value (NAV) — NAV per share: $21.92
- 🟡P/E — P/E: 30.2
🕴️ Insider Trading
Real transactions by officers and insiders, as reported to the SEC on Form 4 — 0 purchases and 0 sales out of the last 25 filings.
| Name | Transaction Type | Date | Shares | Change | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holmes John McClain III | Tax Withholding in Shares | 31.7.2026 | 447,582 | -34,143 | $140.04 |
| Holmes John McClain III | Tax Withholding in Shares | 31.7.2026 | 441,362 | -6,220 | $140.04 |
| Pachapa Eric | Tax Withholding in Shares | 31.7.2026 | 25,801 | -3,365 | $140.04 |
| Pachapa Eric | Tax Withholding in Shares | 31.7.2026 | 25,187 | -614 | $140.04 |
| Garascia Jessica A. | Tax Withholding in Shares | 31.7.2026 | 37,380 | -5,635 | $140.04 |
| Garascia Jessica A. | Tax Withholding in Shares | 31.7.2026 | 36,352 | -1,028 | $140.04 |
| Jessup Christopher A. | Tax Withholding in Shares | 31.7.2026 | 79,339 | -7,098 | $140.04 |
| Jessup Christopher A. | Tax Withholding in Shares | 31.7.2026 | 78,045 | -1,294 | $140.04 |
| Holmes John McClain III | Grant/Award from Employer | 23.7.2026 | 290,102 | +20,082 | — |
| Holmes John McClain III | Grant/Award from Employer | 23.7.2026 | 320,225 | +30,123 | — |
| Holmes John McClain III | Grant/Award from Employer | 23.7.2026 | 481,725 | +161,500 | — |
| Pachapa Eric | Grant/Award from Employer | 23.7.2026 | 27,080 | +1,390 | — |
| Pachapa Eric | Grant/Award from Employer | 23.7.2026 | 29,166 | +2,086 | — |
| Jessup Christopher A. | Grant/Award from Employer | 23.7.2026 | 78,396 | +5,360 | — |
| Jessup Christopher A. | Grant/Award from Employer | 23.7.2026 | 86,437 | +8,041 | — |
| Garascia Jessica A. | Grant/Award from Employer | 23.7.2026 | 37,824 | +3,460 | — |
| Garascia Jessica A. | Grant/Award from Employer | 23.7.2026 | 43,015 | +5,191 | — |
| Wolin Dylan Zachary | Grant/Award from Employer | 23.7.2026 | 11,442 | +3,862 | — |
| Wolin Dylan Zachary | Grant/Award from Employer | 23.7.2026 | 17,235 | +5,793 | — |
| Holmes John McClain III | Grant/Award from Employer | 14.7.2026 | 270,020 | +34,956 | — |
| Pachapa Eric | Grant/Award from Employer | 14.7.2026 | 25,690 | +3,445 | — |
| Jessup Christopher A. | Grant/Award from Employer | 14.7.2026 | 73,036 | +7,267 | — |
| Garascia Jessica A. | Grant/Award from Employer | 14.7.2026 | 34,364 | +4,807 | — |
| LEDUC ROBERT F | Grant/Award from Employer | 1.6.2026 | 18,689 | +1,364 | — |
| WALFISH MARC JAY | Grant/Award from Employer | 1.6.2026 | 133,104 | +1,364 | — |
📉 Short Interest
Official FINRA data — the number of shares open in short positions, plus daily short-sale activity.
Monthly Trend — Open Short Interest
1,416,560 shares short as of 2026-07-15 · vs. 1,540,714 on 2026-06-30
Official biweekly report (FINRA Rule 4560) — no real higher-frequency data exists for this metric.
Weekly Trend — Daily Short-Sale Activity
59.2% of trading volume this week was short selling, vs. 65.5% the prior week
Based on daily short-sale volume (Reg SHO) — a different metric from the open short interest above: this is daily trading volume, not an open position, so it updates weekly rather than biweekly.
📰 News & Sentiment
Sentiment based on basic keywords (not AI) — 3 positive, 2 neutral, 0 negative out of the last 5 articles.
Fintel · 4.8.2026
ChartMill · 3.8.2026
SeekingAlpha · 31.7.2026
SeekingAlpha · 30.7.2026
Benzinga · 27.7.2026